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Latavius Murray Week 12 Outlook - Chargers at Bills

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Wed, Nov 25th 2020, 7:52pm EST

While doing research for this game, I came across something pretty hilarious on Kamara. He's seen a remarkable 24.5 percent of the Saints targets, which ranks 11th in the NFL, but has seen just 3.0 percent of their air yards. These are the little tidbits I find that keep me amused. That target share number was actually 26.0 percent before Taysom Hill took over, so should we be worried about Kamara? I'll be honest, it's not great, as Kamara has totaled more than 14 carries just once all season. That receiving work is what offered most of his value. We can't completely panic about one game, and who knows, maybe the Falcons cornerbacks were just so bad that Hill couldn't help himself and didn't want to dump it down. But yes, it's worrisome. The matchup this week should allow for a lot of production on the ground, as the Broncos just haven't been the same since losing Mike Purcell on the defensive line. After being one of the best run defenses in the league, they've struggled to slow down much of anyone over the last five games, as they've allowed 595 rushing yards on 129 carries (4.61 yards per carry) with six rushing touchdowns. They've also allowed 143 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown over their last four games to running backs, so they're clearly struggling with the position, and it's not like their competition has been stellar. On top of that, their offense is struggling to put points on the board most weeks, which has led to running backs averaging 28.4 touches per game against them. You probably don't want to spend up for Kamara in cash games until we see his targets get back up to par, but you're still playing him as an RB1 in season-long formats in a plus-matchup. This is the first plus-matchup for Murray's role in quite a few weeks, as they've played the Bears, Bucs, 49ers, and Falcons over the last four weeks. Not many realize that Murray has just 15 fewer carries than Kamara on the year, though he's been on the short end of the stick in the touchdown department (Kamara 8, Murray 2). Knowing Murray has received at least nine touches in 9-of-10 games this year, he's in the low-end RB3/high-end RB4 conversation who just might make an appearance into the end zone.

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