Latavius Murray Week 13 Outlook - Bills at 49ers

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Dec 3rd 2020, 10:34am EST

We're officially panicked with Kamara now that we've seen just three targets over the last two games with Hill under center. Some are wondering if Murray is worth more with Hill under center considering his production in last week's game, though I'm not there just yet. That game was a blowout and keeping Kamara fresh makes a lot of sense. Still, Kamara's value has taken quite the hit, as his weighted opportunity is comparable to guys like Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt. The Falcons allow a lot of fantasy production, right? Unfortunately, running backs haven't accounted for too much of it. They've allowed a league-low 25.0 percent of skill-player production go to running backs, while no other team in the league is below 26.6 percent. Teams have realized it's more profitable to throw the ball against the Falcons, and that's why you've seen them face a league-low 17.8 carries per game. That's turned into just 70.0 rushing yards and 0.36 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs. For those doing the math at home, that's just 8.55 fantasy points per game on the ground, which is the lowest mark in the league. There have been six running backs who've totaled at least 33 yards through the air against them, so that's where you'd like to see production. How good have the Falcons been against running backs as a whole? Well, they've allowed just six of them to hit 11.5 PPR points this year, which is tied for the third-fewest in the league. That number is significant because it's the average number of points running backs needed to finish as a top-24 running back in 2019. Because of his decrease workload in the passing game, Kamara is more of a high-end RB2 at this point in time who's in a tough spot here. Don't forget he totaled just 45 yards on 13 carries against them just two weeks ago, though a touchdown salvaged his fantasy day. As for Murray, this matchup is brutal for his skill set, but he has fantasy value if he keeps getting the 12-plus carries he's gotten in the two games with Hill. Murray should be considered a mid-tier RB3 that you don't have to play in this game.