J.K. Dobbins Fantasy Football Outlook (2022)

By Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros), Thu, Sep 1st 2022, 10:27am EDT

Running backs tied to a mobile quarterback are often short-changed when it comes to the passing game. For as well as J.K. Dobbins performed in fantasy football from Weeks 11-17 in full PPR (RB11) during the 2020 season, guess who outscored him... J.D. McKissic. That's because McKissic caught 37 passes versus Dobbins' three.

Guys like Derrick Henry can overcome the lack of receiving work because they are entrenched bell cows, but that's not the case with Dobbins in Baltimore with Gus Edwards also in the mix. Dobbins only slightly out-touched Edwards 86-74 down the stretch in 2020.

It would be pure ignorance to assume that Dobbins will take over the backfield considering Edwards has been excellent with every opportunity he has received.

Dobbins also ran extremely hot when it came to scoring touchdowns, scoring at least one TD in every game from Week 11 on. His nine total rushing TDs ranked 12th in the league and nearly doubled his expected output (5.5, 30th) - the sixth-highest difference at the position.

Drafters have to understand that to invest in Dobbins as a late third-rounder or fourth-rounder (RB20, 50th overall ADP) he needs to run hot in the TD category coming off the season-ending ACL injury. They also should expect zero-to-little pass-game work with Jackson's tendency to not check down along with the additions of receiving backs, veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie.