By Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros), Thu, Sep 1st 2022, 10:27am EDT
Joe Burrow finished the regular season as PFF's highest-graded passer (91.2) while also ranking first in super sticky stats like passing grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing grade throwing at the intermediate level (95.6). He finished the season as the QB8 averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game.
The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly entered the conversation as one of the league's best real-life NFL passers, but might be slightly overvalued based on early best ball ADP with impending regression. He's the QB6 despite finishing as a top-6 fantasy quarterback just thrice in 2021.
No quarterback scored more fantasy points over expectation, which hints that regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The LSU product also rushed for just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low across consensus due to his lack of upside as a rusher.
However, there is a legitimate path for Burrow's upside to be further unlocked if the Bengals increase their pass rate as they did during his rookie season and down the playoff stretch. Burrow led the NFL in passing attempts per game (40.4) during his rookie season and averaged 38 passing attempts/23.0 fantasy points per game in his final six weeks
An uptick in passing volume won't help Burrow's efficiency per se, but his fantasy numbers will be much more stable from week to week.
Also can't forget to mention the Bengals revamped their offensive line as they look to not let their franchise quarterback get sacked 70 times - 22 more than the next closest quarterback.