Cordarrelle Patterson Fantasy Football Outlook (2022)
By Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros), Thu, Sep 1st 2022, 10:27am EDT
Nobody saw the Cordarelle Patterson ninth-year breakout coming. Unless, of course, you foresaw ex-Chicago Bears passing game coordinator Dave Ragone coming in as the Atlanta Falcons' new offensive coordinator just to install Patterson in a hybrid RB/WR role.
From Weeks 1-14, fantasy football's RB7 - 15.8 fantasy points per game - was a revelation and a player who changed the tide of leagues as a waiver-wire acquisition.
Patterson's only issue is that he stumbled across the fantasy football finish line, failing to eclipse more than nine fantasy points or 30 rushing yards in his last four games. The team also used him more in a committee alongside Mike Davis.
Nonetheless, the more bizarre part is that Patterson took a backseat in the receiving game despite his wide receiver background, totaling just seven targets in his final four games after averaging nearly five targets per game. Patterson's 25% target rate per route ranked No. 1 among all running backs.
Still, even with the poor end to the season, Patterson's best case in free agency was always returning to the Falcons. He is such a specialized talent who needs to be used in a particular manner, which was executed to near perfection under Arthur Smith's tutelage.
With an overall lack of general playmakers after losing Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, C-Patt should see a competent role in the Falcons offense. Whether it be as a receiver or rusher (or both), he's a solid bet to lead the backfield with lackluster RB talent on the team vying for touches and targets.
With Patterson's range of outcomes so wide for fantasy football, he should remain a draft target if his ADP stays in the later rounds. His RB30 ADP on early best-ball is a solid value.
But I'd be hard-pressed to admit that the Marcus Mariota signing is not ideal for Patterson's fantasy value. Rushing quarterbacks tend to check the ball down less frequently making it less likely Patterson sees less of a consistent target share.
In Mariota's last stint with the Titans, RBs totaled 4.6 targets per game (17.7% target share). Last year that number was at 8.2 targets per game (26.7% target share).
