Chris Olave Week 4 Outlook - Vikings at Saints

By Derek Brown (FantasyPros), Fri, Sep 30th 2022, 11:05am EDT

With Thomas and Landry exiting Week 4's game, Olave went nuts. He saw a 33.3% target share (eighth-highest for the week) while finishing fifth in air yards and 11th in weighted opportunity. Olave ranks fifth in aDOT among wide receivers (minimum five targets) while leading the NFL in deep targets. He's 20th in PFF receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He'll run about 79% of his routes against Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dantzler. Peterson has allowed a 42.9% catch rate and 63.7 passer rating, but as Week 1 showed against Christian Watson, he can be beaten by deep speed. Dantzler has given up an 81% catch rate and a 123 passer rating. Olave is a high upside flex option, but has considerably a much lower floor with Andy Dalton and not Jameis Winston has his QB under center in Week 4. Dalton ranked 29th in aDOT and yards per attempt (6.4) in 2021. He's just not as aggressive throwing downfield as Winston is, which removes Olave's biggest strength from the equation. It's also no guarantee that Olave's 33% target share from the past two weeks rolls over either with a brand new QB under center even with Michael Thomas not playing. Considering the boom-or-bust nature to Olave's game, I'd imagine this is probably a spot he's more likely to bust.