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Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Quarterbacks - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESPaTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKPaTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Kyler Murray (ARI) 154.66%8.27%387.014.61%6.55%372.12-1
Josh Allen (BUF) 156.47%7.84%384.826.11%7.50%374.41 +1
Patrick Mahomes II (KC) 156.46%3.17%380.435.84%3.45%366.73 0
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) 159.13%7.89%361.347.58%5.48%323.26-2
Russell Wilson (PIT) 157.17%2.41%354.656.31%2.30%334.85 0
Deshaun Watson (CLE) 156.07%3.33%349.565.78%4.06%347.14 +2
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 156.86%16.28%321.976.09%11.89%295.710-3
Tom Brady 156.56%10.00%318.786.03%8.85%303.77 +1
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 146.91%4.40%316.696.24%3.80%300.79 0
Justin Herbert (LAC) 145.21%9.09%309.9104.82%9.60%302.38 +2
Kirk Cousins (ATL) 156.78%3.13%284.9115.92%4.86%270.413-2
Ben Roethlisberger 155.43%0.00%277.2125.06%3.89%274.112 0
Matt Ryan 154.15%6.90%270.7134.61%5.96%280.411 +2
Derek Carr (NO) 155.22%7.69%258.2145.60%7.50%265.514 0
Jared Goff (DET) 153.62%7.84%253.0153.80%6.82%253.815 0
Matthew Stafford (LAR) 154.92%0.00%246.9164.60%0.75%241.320-4
Teddy Bridgewater 143.04%9.43%246.5173.49%8.16%251.216 +1
Philip Rivers 154.41%0.00%239.6184.50%0.35%242.019-1
Baker Mayfield (TB) 155.35%1.85%239.4195.54%3.65%249.017 +2
Cam Newton 142.17%8.76%231.5202.96%9.41%248.418 +2
Carson Wentz (LAR) 123.66%9.62%213.4213.85%7.28%209.321 0
Drew Brees 116.15%11.11%195.4225.69%8.66%185.524-2
Joe Burrow (CIN) 103.22%8.11%178.7234.05%8.86%193.822 +1
Daniel Jones (NYG) 132.46%1.54%174.2243.41%1.24%190.123 +1
Drew Lock (NYG) 123.61%6.82%172.1253.86%6.36%175.325 0
Gardner Minshew II (LV) 94.89%3.45%164.7265.20%2.31%166.826 0
Ryan Fitzpatrick 104.87%6.67%160.7274.92%7.52%162.827 0
Mitch Trubisky (BUF) 95.39%3.03%150.4285.69%3.93%155.828 0
Dak Prescott (DAL) 54.05%16.67%138.6293.96%14.32%135.232-3
Sam Darnold (MIN) 112.47%5.41%132.1303.00%3.44%135.431-1
Andy Dalton (CAR) 104.20%0.00%130.3314.77%1.39%140.229 +2
Nick Mullens (MIN) 103.68%0.00%128.3324.38%2.78%138.930 +2
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 93.79%8.33%122.2334.55%8.10%130.433 0
Nick Foles 93.21%6.25%112.2343.81%5.36%118.934 0
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 144.05%4.76%94.9353.88%3.58%89.435 0
Dwayne Haskins 72.07%5.00%75.2362.82%9.21%87.436 0
Jimmy Garoppolo (LAR) 65.00%0.00%69.3374.99%0.03%69.338-1
Alex Smith 72.38%0.00%67.1383.31%0.13%76.637 +1
Joe Flacco (IND) 54.48%0.00%57.8393.80%0.28%54.340-1
Brandon Allen (SF) 43.52%0.00%53.6403.94%0.50%56.339 +1
Mike Glennon 43.91%0.00%48.9413.47%0.60%46.041 0
C.J. Beathard (JAC) 55.77%0.00%38.4425.47%0.05%37.242 0
Jake Luton 31.82%100.00%34.3431.84%54.39%31.743 0