Touchdown Regression Report
2020 Season - Quarterbacks - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player (Team) | GAMES | PaTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | PaTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
Kyler Murray (ARI) | 15 | 4.66% | 8.27% | 387.0 | 1 | 4.61% | 6.55% | 372.1 | 2 | -1 |
Josh Allen (BUF) | 15 | 6.47% | 7.84% | 384.8 | 2 | 6.11% | 7.50% | 374.4 | 1 | +1 |
Patrick Mahomes II (KC) | 15 | 6.46% | 3.17% | 380.4 | 3 | 5.84% | 3.45% | 366.7 | 3 | 0 |
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | 15 | 9.13% | 7.89% | 361.3 | 4 | 7.58% | 5.48% | 323.2 | 6 | -2 |
Russell Wilson (PIT) | 15 | 7.17% | 2.41% | 354.6 | 5 | 6.31% | 2.30% | 334.8 | 5 | 0 |
Deshaun Watson (CLE) | 15 | 6.07% | 3.33% | 349.5 | 6 | 5.78% | 4.06% | 347.1 | 4 | +2 |
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) | 15 | 6.86% | 16.28% | 321.9 | 7 | 6.09% | 11.89% | 295.7 | 10 | -3 |
Tom Brady | 15 | 6.56% | 10.00% | 318.7 | 8 | 6.03% | 8.85% | 303.7 | 7 | +1 |
Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 14 | 6.91% | 4.40% | 316.6 | 9 | 6.24% | 3.80% | 300.7 | 9 | 0 |
Justin Herbert (LAC) | 14 | 5.21% | 9.09% | 309.9 | 10 | 4.82% | 9.60% | 302.3 | 8 | +2 |
Kirk Cousins (ATL) | 15 | 6.78% | 3.13% | 284.9 | 11 | 5.92% | 4.86% | 270.4 | 13 | -2 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 15 | 5.43% | 0.00% | 277.2 | 12 | 5.06% | 3.89% | 274.1 | 12 | 0 |
Matt Ryan | 15 | 4.15% | 6.90% | 270.7 | 13 | 4.61% | 5.96% | 280.4 | 11 | +2 |
Derek Carr (NO) | 15 | 5.22% | 7.69% | 258.2 | 14 | 5.60% | 7.50% | 265.5 | 14 | 0 |
Jared Goff (DET) | 15 | 3.62% | 7.84% | 253.0 | 15 | 3.80% | 6.82% | 253.8 | 15 | 0 |
Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 15 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 246.9 | 16 | 4.60% | 0.75% | 241.3 | 20 | -4 |
Teddy Bridgewater | 14 | 3.04% | 9.43% | 246.5 | 17 | 3.49% | 8.16% | 251.2 | 16 | +1 |
Philip Rivers | 15 | 4.41% | 0.00% | 239.6 | 18 | 4.50% | 0.35% | 242.0 | 19 | -1 |
Baker Mayfield (TB) | 15 | 5.35% | 1.85% | 239.4 | 19 | 5.54% | 3.65% | 249.0 | 17 | +2 |
Cam Newton | 14 | 2.17% | 8.76% | 231.5 | 20 | 2.96% | 9.41% | 248.4 | 18 | +2 |
Carson Wentz (LAR) | 12 | 3.66% | 9.62% | 213.4 | 21 | 3.85% | 7.28% | 209.3 | 21 | 0 |
Drew Brees | 11 | 6.15% | 11.11% | 195.4 | 22 | 5.69% | 8.66% | 185.5 | 24 | -2 |
Joe Burrow (CIN) | 10 | 3.22% | 8.11% | 178.7 | 23 | 4.05% | 8.86% | 193.8 | 22 | +1 |
Daniel Jones (NYG) | 13 | 2.46% | 1.54% | 174.2 | 24 | 3.41% | 1.24% | 190.1 | 23 | +1 |
Drew Lock (NYG) | 12 | 3.61% | 6.82% | 172.1 | 25 | 3.86% | 6.36% | 175.3 | 25 | 0 |
Gardner Minshew II (LV) | 9 | 4.89% | 3.45% | 164.7 | 26 | 5.20% | 2.31% | 166.8 | 26 | 0 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 10 | 4.87% | 6.67% | 160.7 | 27 | 4.92% | 7.52% | 162.8 | 27 | 0 |
Mitch Trubisky (BUF) | 9 | 5.39% | 3.03% | 150.4 | 28 | 5.69% | 3.93% | 155.8 | 28 | 0 |
Dak Prescott (DAL) | 5 | 4.05% | 16.67% | 138.6 | 29 | 3.96% | 14.32% | 135.2 | 32 | -3 |
Sam Darnold (MIN) | 11 | 2.47% | 5.41% | 132.1 | 30 | 3.00% | 3.44% | 135.4 | 31 | -1 |
Andy Dalton (CAR) | 10 | 4.20% | 0.00% | 130.3 | 31 | 4.77% | 1.39% | 140.2 | 29 | +2 |
Nick Mullens (MIN) | 10 | 3.68% | 0.00% | 128.3 | 32 | 4.38% | 2.78% | 138.9 | 30 | +2 |
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 9 | 3.79% | 8.33% | 122.2 | 33 | 4.55% | 8.10% | 130.4 | 33 | 0 |
Nick Foles | 9 | 3.21% | 6.25% | 112.2 | 34 | 3.81% | 5.36% | 118.9 | 34 | 0 |
Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 14 | 4.05% | 4.76% | 94.9 | 35 | 3.88% | 3.58% | 89.4 | 35 | 0 |
Dwayne Haskins | 7 | 2.07% | 5.00% | 75.2 | 36 | 2.82% | 9.21% | 87.4 | 36 | 0 |
Jimmy Garoppolo (LAR) | 6 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 69.3 | 37 | 4.99% | 0.03% | 69.3 | 38 | -1 |
Alex Smith | 7 | 2.38% | 0.00% | 67.1 | 38 | 3.31% | 0.13% | 76.6 | 37 | +1 |
Joe Flacco (IND) | 5 | 4.48% | 0.00% | 57.8 | 39 | 3.80% | 0.28% | 54.3 | 40 | -1 |
Brandon Allen (SF) | 4 | 3.52% | 0.00% | 53.6 | 40 | 3.94% | 0.50% | 56.3 | 39 | +1 |
Mike Glennon | 4 | 3.91% | 0.00% | 48.9 | 41 | 3.47% | 0.60% | 46.0 | 41 | 0 |
C.J. Beathard (JAC) | 5 | 5.77% | 0.00% | 38.4 | 42 | 5.47% | 0.05% | 37.2 | 42 | 0 |
Jake Luton | 3 | 1.82% | 100.00% | 34.3 | 43 | 1.84% | 54.39% | 31.7 | 43 | 0 |