Touchdown Regression Report
2020 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 15 | 4.67% | 8.56% | 294.8 | 1 | 3.94% | 6.72% | 269.5 | 2 | -1 |
| Dalvin Cook (BAL) | 14 | 1.85% | 5.13% | 293.8 | 2 | 1.52% | 4.85% | 287.6 | 1 | +1 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 15 | 0.00% | 4.50% | 279.1 | 3 | 0.75% | 3.91% | 267.3 | 3 | 0 |
| James Robinson (NO) | 14 | 5.00% | 2.92% | 201.4 | 4 | 3.70% | 2.50% | 190.7 | 6 | -2 |
| Aaron Jones (MIN) | 13 | 3.17% | 4.48% | 197.4 | 5 | 3.85% | 3.96% | 193.7 | 5 | 0 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 14 | 2.94% | 3.24% | 191.6 | 6 | 3.40% | 3.43% | 196.3 | 4 | +2 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 14 | 2.44% | 4.74% | 179.4 | 7 | 2.67% | 4.47% | 176.1 | 9 | -2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 14 | 0.00% | 4.40% | 177.4 | 8 | 0.91% | 4.51% | 181.7 | 7 | +1 |
| Kareem Hunt (CLE) | 15 | 9.80% | 3.03% | 176.4 | 9 | 7.00% | 3.48% | 173.2 | 10 | -1 |
| Nick Chubb (CLE) | 11 | 0.00% | 6.32% | 174.9 | 10 | 1.26% | 5.10% | 162.4 | 12 | -2 |
| Kenyan Drake | 14 | 0.00% | 4.18% | 162.1 | 11 | 0.63% | 4.67% | 170.3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott (NE) | 14 | 2.74% | 2.46% | 159.6 | 12 | 2.27% | 3.88% | 178.3 | 8 | +4 |
| Antonio Gibson (NE) | 13 | 0.00% | 6.47% | 158.1 | 13 | 0.95% | 5.30% | 148.6 | 14 | -1 |
| Melvin Gordon III | 14 | 2.27% | 4.19% | 149.4 | 14 | 2.28% | 3.42% | 139.5 | 18 | -4 |
| Mike Davis | 15 | 2.86% | 3.64% | 147.5 | 15 | 3.30% | 4.00% | 153.0 | 13 | +2 |
| Ronald Jones II | 13 | 2.38% | 3.65% | 144.5 | 16 | 2.87% | 3.52% | 144.3 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 11 | 8.70% | 3.55% | 142.5 | 17 | 6.25% | 3.35% | 134.1 | 20 | -3 |
| Miles Sanders (CAR) | 12 | 0.00% | 3.66% | 142.4 | 18 | 0.45% | 3.60% | 143.2 | 17 | +1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) | 13 | 1.82% | 2.21% | 140.0 | 19 | 2.76% | 2.68% | 148.2 | 15 | +4 |
| Todd Gurley II | 14 | 0.00% | 4.62% | 134.7 | 20 | 0.39% | 4.88% | 138.6 | 19 | +1 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 12 | 3.51% | 7.02% | 130.8 | 21 | 3.26% | 6.05% | 123.3 | 24 | -3 |
| David Johnson | 11 | 4.35% | 4.08% | 128.5 | 22 | 5.45% | 4.05% | 131.3 | 21 | +1 |
| Nyheim Hines (CLE) | 15 | 5.19% | 3.37% | 123.5 | 23 | 4.28% | 4.29% | 124.2 | 23 | 0 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 12 | 0.00% | 3.55% | 123.4 | 24 | 1.96% | 3.52% | 128.2 | 22 | +2 |
| J.K. Dobbins (LAC) | 14 | 0.00% | 6.72% | 122.5 | 25 | 1.52% | 5.37% | 113.8 | 28 | -3 |
| Darrell Henderson Jr. | 15 | 4.17% | 3.62% | 114.3 | 26 | 3.76% | 4.21% | 118.6 | 26 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray (BUF) | 15 | 3.85% | 2.74% | 113.2 | 27 | 3.42% | 2.49% | 110.4 | 33 | -6 |
| Chase Edmonds (TB) | 15 | 5.88% | 1.03% | 112.5 | 28 | 4.95% | 1.37% | 110.7 | 31 | -3 |
| Gus Edwards (LAC) | 15 | 0.00% | 4.17% | 112.2 | 29 | 1.17% | 4.13% | 112.9 | 29 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 15 | 5.08% | 2.42% | 110.4 | 30 | 4.44% | 2.73% | 110.5 | 32 | -2 |
| Myles Gaskin (MIN) | 9 | 4.26% | 2.11% | 109.5 | 31 | 3.89% | 3.47% | 120.0 | 25 | +6 |
| Wayne Gallman Jr. | 14 | 0.00% | 4.08% | 109.1 | 32 | 0.96% | 3.81% | 108.2 | 34 | -2 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) | 11 | 10.71% | 5.56% | 108.5 | 33 | 7.87% | 4.75% | 97.6 | 38 | -5 |
| J.D. McKissic | 15 | 1.82% | 1.18% | 108.4 | 34 | 1.94% | 1.85% | 112.6 | 30 | +4 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 15 | 0.00% | 1.28% | 104.3 | 35 | 1.21% | 1.91% | 114.0 | 27 | +8 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 9 | 3.08% | 0.86% | 100.2 | 36 | 3.27% | 1.52% | 105.5 | 35 | +1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 0.00% | 4.49% | 100.2 | 37 | 1.03% | 4.80% | 104.2 | 36 | +1 |
| Jamaal Williams (NO) | 13 | 2.86% | 1.68% | 93.5 | 38 | 3.20% | 2.62% | 100.9 | 37 | +1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 12 | 0.00% | 6.19% | 93.3 | 39 | 1.87% | 5.58% | 95.0 | 40 | -1 |
| Jerick McKinnon (KC) | 15 | 2.17% | 6.17% | 92.6 | 40 | 2.63% | 4.77% | 87.1 | 44 | -4 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 15 | 2.50% | 3.96% | 89.4 | 41 | 3.07% | 3.07% | 85.4 | 46 | -5 |
| Damien Harris | 10 | 0.00% | 1.46% | 86.3 | 42 | 0.75% | 1.88% | 90.1 | 43 | -1 |
| Zack Moss (CIN) | 12 | 5.56% | 3.57% | 85.5 | 43 | 5.62% | 4.50% | 91.8 | 41 | +2 |
| Malcolm Brown | 15 | 0.00% | 4.95% | 84.3 | 44 | 1.25% | 4.88% | 86.4 | 45 | -1 |
| Cam Akers (MIN) | 11 | 7.14% | 1.38% | 84.2 | 45 | 7.13% | 2.82% | 96.7 | 39 | +6 |
| Frank Gore | 15 | 0.00% | 1.07% | 84.2 | 46 | 0.70% | 1.62% | 91.2 | 42 | +4 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | 8 | 5.26% | 1.92% | 83.7 | 47 | 3.01% | 2.50% | 84.7 | 47 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 10 | 9.09% | 4.48% | 82.6 | 48 | 6.42% | 4.28% | 76.5 | 50 | -2 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 6 | 3.85% | 2.52% | 78.6 | 49 | 3.46% | 2.65% | 78.9 | 48 | +1 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 3 | 5.26% | 8.47% | 73.4 | 50 | 3.83% | 6.51% | 64.8 | 55 | -5 |
| Carlos Hyde | 10 | 0.00% | 4.94% | 68.9 | 51 | 0.75% | 4.26% | 66.5 | 52 | -1 |
| Devontae Booker | 15 | 0.00% | 3.23% | 67.1 | 52 | 2.15% | 2.40% | 65.2 | 54 | -2 |
| Benny Snell Jr. | 15 | 0.00% | 3.60% | 63.9 | 53 | 4.18% | 5.03% | 76.9 | 49 | +4 |
| Boston Scott (PHI) | 15 | 2.78% | 1.25% | 62.7 | 54 | 3.08% | 1.68% | 65.4 | 53 | +1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 11 | 0.00% | 0.85% | 59.0 | 55 | 0.90% | 1.20% | 62.3 | 56 | -1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 11 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 58.6 | 56 | 2.05% | 2.56% | 61.7 | 58 | -2 |
| James White | 13 | 1.61% | 5.71% | 58.5 | 57 | 1.96% | 4.06% | 56.3 | 61 | -4 |
| Joshua Kelley (LAC) | 13 | 0.00% | 1.80% | 58.2 | 58 | 1.13% | 2.88% | 67.0 | 51 | +7 |
| Brian Hill | 15 | 0.00% | 1.00% | 56.8 | 59 | 0.88% | 1.33% | 60.4 | 59 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson Jr. | 11 | 2.86% | 1.30% | 56.4 | 60 | 3.63% | 1.32% | 58.1 | 60 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 10 | 0.00% | 3.30% | 55.3 | 61 | 0.78% | 4.23% | 62.1 | 57 | +4 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 15 | 3.85% | 3.85% | 52.8 | 62 | 3.02% | 3.76% | 51.2 | 64 | -2 |
| Peyton Barber | 15 | 0.00% | 4.26% | 50.0 | 63 | 0.09% | 4.60% | 52.0 | 63 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine (DEN) | 15 | 0.00% | 4.76% | 49.6 | 64 | 2.15% | 4.36% | 49.6 | 66 | -2 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 15 | 0.00% | 1.19% | 49.3 | 65 | 1.33% | 1.51% | 52.2 | 62 | +3 |
| Sony Michel | 8 | 11.11% | 1.27% | 48.7 | 66 | 5.73% | 1.71% | 47.9 | 68 | -2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 12 | 6.67% | 2.08% | 47.4 | 67 | 3.67% | 3.21% | 51.2 | 65 | +2 |
| Salvon Ahmed (MIA) | 5 | 0.00% | 4.00% | 47.2 | 68 | 0.94% | 4.19% | 48.8 | 67 | +1 |
| Mark Ingram II | 10 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 43.0 | 69 | 1.16% | 2.61% | 42.9 | 70 | -1 |
| La'Mical Perine (KC) | 10 | 0.00% | 3.13% | 41.5 | 70 | 0.72% | 2.55% | 40.0 | 73 | -3 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 12 | 4.76% | 1.85% | 40.5 | 71 | 2.95% | 2.86% | 41.5 | 72 | -1 |
| DeeJay Dallas (ARI) | 12 | 5.00% | 5.88% | 39.9 | 72 | 4.59% | 6.98% | 41.6 | 71 | +1 |
| Ito Smith | 13 | 0.00% | 1.56% | 38.7 | 73 | 3.19% | 1.66% | 44.1 | 69 | +4 |
| AJ Dillon (GB) | 10 | 0.00% | 4.35% | 38.0 | 74 | 1.52% | 2.77% | 33.8 | 80 | -6 |
| Dion Lewis | 15 | 3.33% | 6.90% | 37.5 | 75 | 3.17% | 6.07% | 35.8 | 75 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 8 | 25.00% | 1.82% | 36.5 | 76 | 15.51% | 1.71% | 33.9 | 79 | -3 |
| Darrel Williams | 15 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 36.3 | 77 | 1.47% | 1.76% | 36.7 | 74 | +3 |
| Justin Jackson | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.9 | 78 | 0.23% | 0.41% | 35.7 | 76 | +2 |
| Matt Breida (NYG) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.0 | 79 | 0.47% | 0.63% | 35.5 | 77 | +2 |
| Jeremy McNichols (WAS) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.13% | 31.9 | 80 | 2.67% | 2.25% | 35.0 | 78 | +2 |
| Jordan Howard | 7 | 0.00% | 11.43% | 29.7 | 81 | 0.22% | 11.30% | 29.4 | 82 | -1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 0.00% | 1.85% | 29.0 | 82 | 3.00% | 1.85% | 30.8 | 81 | +1 |
| JaMycal Hasty (NE) | 8 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 24.1 | 83 | 0.38% | 3.23% | 25.8 | 84 | -1 |
| Royce Freeman (DAL) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 22.9 | 84 | 1.39% | 0.99% | 26.1 | 83 | +1 |
| Josh Adams | 7 | 0.00% | 6.90% | 18.7 | 85 | 0.15% | 6.63% | 18.3 | 86 | -1 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn (NE) | 9 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 18.3 | 86 | 7.60% | 0.71% | 18.0 | 87 | -1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson (JAC) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18.0 | 87 | 2.66% | 0.25% | 19.1 | 85 | +2 |
| Rodney Smith | 6 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 17.1 | 88 | 0.38% | 2.39% | 17.2 | 88 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland Jr. | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.0 | 89 | 0.44% | 0.41% | 16.1 | 90 | -1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.7 | 90 | 0.33% | 0.97% | 15.0 | 91 | -1 |
| DeAndre Washington | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.1 | 91 | 0.92% | 2.41% | 17.1 | 89 | +2 |
| Trayveon Williams (CIN) | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.0 | 92 | 0.96% | 0.26% | 9.7 | 93 | -1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 8.7 | 93 | 1.28% | 1.22% | 11.1 | 92 | +1 |
| Darwin Thompson | 12 | 9.09% | 3.70% | 3.2 | 94 | 6.29% | 3.03% | 0.3 | 95 | -1 |
| () | 0.00% | 1.56% | 0.0 | 95 | 0.69% | 1.99% | 2.7 | 94 | +1 | |
