Touchdown Regression Report
2020 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 15 | 7.53% | 0.00% | 207.8 | 1 | 6.49% | 0.00% | 198.6 | 1 | 0 |
| Darren Waller (NYG) | 15 | 6.16% | 0.00% | 153.9 | 2 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 153.5 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan (CHI) | 15 | 18.64% | 0.00% | 116.8 | 3 | 13.02% | 0.00% | 96.9 | 7 | -4 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 13 | 7.87% | 0.00% | 109.4 | 4 | 7.25% | 0.00% | 106.1 | 4 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 15 | 5.94% | 0.00% | 105.8 | 5 | 6.37% | 0.00% | 108.4 | 3 | +2 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 14 | 7.06% | 0.00% | 101.6 | 6 | 6.72% | 0.00% | 99.9 | 5 | +1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 15 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 101.4 | 7 | 8.65% | 0.00% | 99.4 | 6 | +1 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 14 | 12.31% | 50.00% | 98.4 | 8 | 11.44% | 38.46% | 93.6 | 9 | -1 |
| Logan Thomas | 15 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 94.9 | 9 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 93.9 | 8 | +1 |
| Jimmy Graham (NO) | 15 | 10.53% | 0.00% | 93.1 | 10 | 9.94% | 0.00% | 90.4 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 15 | 5.49% | 0.00% | 85.8 | 11 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 89.2 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 14 | 4.30% | 0.00% | 85.3 | 12 | 4.98% | 0.00% | 89.1 | 12 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst (LAC) | 15 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 84.3 | 13 | 6.50% | 0.00% | 82.6 | 15 | -2 |
| Noah Fant (SEA) | 14 | 3.23% | 0.00% | 82.5 | 14 | 3.41% | 0.00% | 83.5 | 13 | +1 |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 14 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 80.1 | 15 | 6.72% | 0.00% | 74.3 | 17 | -2 |
| Jared Cook | 14 | 11.67% | 0.00% | 80.1 | 16 | 8.93% | 0.00% | 70.3 | 18 | -2 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 15 | 4.49% | 0.00% | 76.5 | 17 | 4.74% | 0.00% | 77.8 | 16 | +1 |
| Evan Engram (JAC) | 15 | 0.92% | 16.67% | 76.3 | 18 | 2.18% | 12.82% | 83.2 | 14 | +4 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 11 | 4.62% | 0.00% | 70.4 | 19 | 4.36% | 0.00% | 69.4 | 20 | -1 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 7 | 3.17% | 0.00% | 70.3 | 20 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 69.7 | 19 | +1 |
| Irv Smith Jr. (KC) | 12 | 11.63% | 0.00% | 65.5 | 21 | 11.03% | 0.00% | 64.0 | 21 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 15 | 8.89% | 0.00% | 61.2 | 22 | 7.02% | 0.00% | 56.1 | 23 | -1 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 12 | 5.71% | 0.00% | 57.8 | 23 | 6.22% | 0.00% | 59.9 | 22 | +1 |
| Trey Burton | 12 | 6.38% | 100.00% | 55.3 | 24 | 6.34% | 76.92% | 52.4 | 24 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 15 | 13.79% | 0.00% | 55.2 | 25 | 9.49% | 0.00% | 47.7 | 30 | -5 |
| Mo Alie-Cox (IND) | 14 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 49.4 | 26 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 49.4 | 28 | -2 |
| Gerald Everett (CHI) | 15 | 1.61% | 100.00% | 49.4 | 27 | 2.43% | 76.92% | 51.1 | 26 | +1 |
| Jordan Reed | 10 | 8.70% | 0.00% | 47.1 | 28 | 8.03% | 0.00% | 45.3 | 32 | -4 |
| Richard Rodgers | 14 | 6.45% | 0.00% | 46.5 | 29 | 4.31% | 0.00% | 42.5 | 34 | -5 |
| Tyler Eifert | 14 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 45.9 | 30 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 49.9 | 27 | +3 |
| Jordan Akins (CLE) | 12 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 45.8 | 31 | 3.99% | 0.00% | 51.5 | 25 | +6 |
| Anthony Firkser (DET) | 15 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 42.9 | 32 | 3.56% | 0.00% | 48.2 | 29 | +3 |
| Jacob Hollister | 15 | 7.50% | 0.00% | 40.3 | 33 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 41.7 | 36 | -3 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 10 | 1.39% | 0.00% | 39.9 | 34 | 2.88% | 0.00% | 46.3 | 31 | +3 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 11 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 39.9 | 35 | 7.78% | 0.00% | 42.4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 13 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 39.4 | 36 | 7.68% | 0.00% | 36.6 | 39 | -3 |
| Cameron Brate | 15 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 39.1 | 37 | 5.92% | 0.00% | 39.2 | 38 | -1 |
| Harrison Bryant (LV) | 15 | 7.89% | 0.00% | 37.8 | 38 | 7.33% | 0.00% | 36.5 | 40 | -2 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 12 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 37.4 | 39 | 3.81% | 0.00% | 39.9 | 37 | +2 |
| Drew Sample (CIN) | 15 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 37.4 | 40 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 43.6 | 33 | +7 |
| Will Dissly (LAC) | 15 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 35.1 | 41 | 5.87% | 0.00% | 33.3 | 44 | -3 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 12 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 32.0 | 42 | 8.05% | 0.00% | 34.0 | 43 | -1 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 15 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 31.9 | 43 | 5.19% | 26.92% | 35.2 | 41 | +2 |
| Durham Smythe (MIA) | 14 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 30.5 | 44 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 32.3 | 45 | -1 |
| Chris Herndon IV | 15 | 6.52% | 0.00% | 30.4 | 45 | 5.23% | 0.00% | 26.8 | 47 | -2 |
| Greg Olsen | 11 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 29.9 | 46 | 4.76% | 0.00% | 34.5 | 42 | +4 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.2 | 47 | 0.86% | 0.00% | 27.2 | 46 | +1 |
| Tyler Conklin (NYJ) | 15 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 21.4 | 48 | 2.87% | 0.00% | 19.9 | 49 | -1 |
| Ian Thomas (CAR) | 15 | 3.23% | 0.00% | 20.6 | 49 | 3.56% | 0.00% | 21.2 | 48 | +1 |
