Who Should I Start? - Week 1

Patrick Mahomes or Chris Carson

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Experts' Pick
 
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
at JAC, Sun 1pm EDT
Chris Carson
RB - SEA
Chris Carson
vs. CIN, Sun 4pm EDT
 
 
Expert
Recommendation
91%
Recommended by
10 of 11 experts
9%
Recommended by
1 of 11 experts
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 1# 49-
Best Rank# 1# 23-
Worst Rank# 3# 52-
    
Matchup 
    
Opponent at JAC vs. CIN-
Matchup Rank272-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total417.0181.4-
Avg Game26.113.0-
2018 Average26.113.0-
    
Misc 
    
Injury Alert-
Weather-
    
Expert Ranks 
Patrick MahomesChris CarsonAdd Player
    
Jeff BoggisJ. Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
1 d
#1#52-
    
Mike RandleM. Randle
BettingPros
6 d
#2#50-
    
Chet GreshamC. Gresham
WalterFootball
1 w
#1#50-
    
Mike TagliereM. Tagl...
FantasyPros
1 w
#3#23-
    
Bobby SylvesterB. Sylv...
FantasyPros
2 w
#1#38-
    
Andrew GouldA. Gould
FantasyPros
2 w
#1#48-
    
Andrew SeifterA. Seifter
FantasyPros
2 w
#1#50-
    
Husein ShabazzH. Shabazz
SleeperWire
3 w
#1#44-
    
Jacob HubmanJ. Hubman
The Fantasy Headliners
06/27
#19-
    
Jason MooreJ. Moore
The Fantasy Footballers
06/15
#1#52-
    
Eric MoodyE. Moody
FantasyData
05/13
#3#63-
    
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Chris Carson
RB - SEA
Chris Carson
2019 Schedule 
Week 1 at JAC vs. CIN
Week 2 at OAK at PIT
Week 3 vs. BAL vs. NO
Week 4 at DET at ARI
Week 5 vs. IND vs. LAR
Week 6 vs. HOU at CLE
Week 7 at DEN vs. BAL
Week 8 vs. GB at ATL
Week 9 vs. MIN vs. TB
Week 10 at TEN at SF
Week 11 at LACBYE WEEK
Week 12BYE WEEK at PHI
Week 13 vs. OAK vs. MIN
Week 14 at NE at LAR
Week 15 vs. DEN at CAR
Week 16 at CHI vs. ARI
Week 17 vs. LAC vs. SF
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Chris Carson
RB - SEA
Chris Carson
2018 Points 
Week 128.35.9
Week 238.82.4
Week 325.318.4
Week 422.9
Week 515.812.7
Week 627.05.9
Week 732.8
Week 826.018.4
Week 926.84.0
Week 1020.1
Week 1135.912.3
Week 1212.3
Week 1333.010.8
Week 1420.815.0
Week 1518.020.8
Week 1628.223.6
Week 1717.318.9
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
at JAC, Sun 1pm EDT
Chris Carson
RB - SEA
Chris Carson
vs. CIN, Sun 4pm EDT
Expert 
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
In terms of raw fantasy points, Mahomes broke the historical quarterback record, but when you compare him to the QB13, or above replacement value, he was merely 20th of all-time. While that is still great, of course, it was driven by an astronomical and unsustainable touchdown rate. Regress that to the expected mean and take Tyreek Hill away and there is no reason you should be considering him in the 2nd, let alone 1st round. If he drops to the late 3rd, you can consider drafting him then if you still like him more than Rodgers.