Who Should I Start? - Week 1

Zach Ertz or Patrick Mahomes

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Experts' Pick
 
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
at JAC, Sun 1pm EDT
Zach Ertz
TE - PHI
Zach Ertz
vs. WAS, Sun 1pm EDT
 
 
Expert
Recommendation
92%
Recommended by
11 of 12 experts
8%
Recommended by
1 of 12 experts
Add Player
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 1# 86-
Best Rank# 1# 82-
Worst Rank# 4# 100-
    
Matchup 
    
Opponent at JAC vs. WAS-
Matchup Rank2724-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total417.0164.3-
Avg Game26.110.3-
2018 Average26.110.3-
    
Misc 
    
Injury Alert-
Weather-
    
Expert Ranks 
Patrick MahomesZach ErtzAdd Player
    
Jeff BoggisJ. Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
3 d
#1#100-
    
Mike RandleM. Randle
BettingPros
1 w
#4#82-
    
Chet GreshamC. Gresham
WalterFootball
1 w
#1#82-
    
Mike TagliereM. Tagl...
FantasyPros
2 w
#3#82-
    
Bobby SylvesterB. Sylv...
FantasyPros
2 w
#1#89-
    
Andrew GouldA. Gould
FantasyPros
2 w
#1#90-
    
Andrew SeifterA. Seifter
FantasyPros
2 w
#1#90-
    
Husein ShabazzH. Shabazz
SleeperWire
3 w
#1#90-
    
Jacob HubmanJ. Hubman
The Fantasy Headliners
06/27
#69-
    
Mike WrightM. Wright
The Fantasy Footballers
06/17
#1#100-
    
Jason MooreJ. Moore
The Fantasy Footballers
06/15
#1#100-
    
Eric MoodyE. Moody
FantasyData
05/13
#3#89-
    
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Zach Ertz
TE - PHI
Zach Ertz
2019 Schedule 
Week 1 at JAC vs. WAS
Week 2 at OAK at ATL
Week 3 vs. BAL vs. DET
Week 4 at DET at GB
Week 5 vs. IND vs. NYJ
Week 6 vs. HOU at MIN
Week 7 at DEN at DAL
Week 8 vs. GB at BUF
Week 9 vs. MIN vs. CHI
Week 10 at TENBYE WEEK
Week 11 at LAC vs. NE
Week 12BYE WEEK vs. SEA
Week 13 vs. OAK at MIA
Week 14 at NE vs. NYG
Week 15 vs. DEN at WAS
Week 16 at CHI vs. DAL
Week 17 vs. LAC at NYG
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Zach Ertz
TE - PHI
Zach Ertz
2018 Points 
Week 128.34.8
Week 238.89.4
Week 325.37.3
Week 422.911.2
Week 515.817.0
Week 627.010.3
Week 732.813.8
Week 826.08.6
Week 926.8
Week 1020.126.5
Week 1135.91.5
Week 1215.1
Week 1333.08.3
Week 1420.83.8
Week 1518.02.2
Week 1628.223.0
Week 1717.31.5
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
at JAC, Sun 1pm EDT
Zach Ertz
TE - PHI
Zach Ertz
vs. WAS, Sun 1pm EDT
Expert 
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
In terms of raw fantasy points, Mahomes broke the historical quarterback record, but when you compare him to the QB13, or above replacement value, he was merely 20th of all-time. While that is still great, of course, it was driven by an astronomical and unsustainable touchdown rate. Regress that to the expected mean and take Tyreek Hill away and there is no reason you should be considering him in the 2nd, let alone 1st round. If he drops to the late 3rd, you can consider drafting him then if you still like him more than Rodgers.