We're on a quest to find the most accurate fantasy experts.
I am. At least in my league I think I’m the best (despite my runner-up finish last year). But I’m asking about the top expert in the world, so I probably rank a few spots lower. Wouldn’t it be cool to know – objectively – who the top fantasy football experts are? We know Tiger’s pretty darn good at golf (and other extracurricular activities). We know Phil Ivey is a damn good poker player. But how come no one can definitively say who the best fantasy experts are?
We’re on a quest to find out. To do so, it’s important to first define what “expertise” means in the world of fantasy football. In my eyes, we should give kudos to guys (or girls!) that are good at:
- Predicting relative player performance before the season and every week during the season – the more accurate their opinions, the more likely they’re drafting and starting an optimal lineup.
- Leveraging these accurate predictions to find and exploit value – drafting sleepers at the right price, and buying/selling under/over valued players at the right times throughout the season.
- Knowing how to wheel and deal, keeping up with the latest information, and ultimately doing whatever it takes to win.
The third bullet above is pretty subjective. The second bullet is about executing – making the right moves based on the knowledge the expert has. The first bullet, in my opinion, is the foundation for everything else. If you don’t know which players are good and which are bad, you’re pretty much screwed no matter what. This also happens to be the most objective criteria for assessing expertise. The best fantasy football experts are those that can most accurately predict relative player performance.
Now that we know what we’re trying to rate, where do we look for our candidates? I believe there are four rich talent pools for discovering the best fantasy minds:
- Fantasy Writers and Analysts. These guys are often punching bags for frustrated fantasy players, but we all need to give them some more credit. First off, they consistently produce the information that you and I read/need every day. From sleeper lists to cheat sheets, these guys produce an amazing amount of advice. Besides, all the research and writing that they do has to at least build up their knowledge base…right?
- Big Tournament Players. I’m talking about the money leagues like The WCFF or the FFPC. These players put up big cash to play in season long leagues where they go up against a ton of competition – sometimes thousands of players. If they’re putting their hard earned money into the pot, they must feel like they’ve got a legitimate chance at winning.
- Weekly “for cash” players. Did you know that you could gamble on fantasy sports? And it’s legal in most states! Personally, I think this could be the next big thing for our industry. I mean, legalized sports gambling sounds pretty promising to me. There’s a cool new site called RotoGrinders that profiles and tracks the performance of these online fantasy players. You should check them out!
- You and me. Seriously. There are so many fantasy players out there that just play in their friends or office leagues but totally know their football. Wouldn’t it be cool to see how we all stack up to the better known fantasy prognosticators? Just check out some of the better known forums out there and you’ll see some members that really seem to know their stuff. There’s also the whole “crowd sourced” thing where the best expert is actually just a consensus of popular opinion. I’m not sure I agree, but it would be cool to see how ADP lists and consensus rankings from the public perform in terms of accuracy.
At FantasyPros, our focus is squarely on helping people find good fantasy football advice. So, for us, our quest to find the best fantasy football experts starts with the experts that actually produce advice – the fantasy writers. I’m sure we could find a ton of talent in fantasy tournaments, weekly fantasy games, and public fantasy forums, but the folks in these communities don’t produce consistent, comprehensive, and timely advice like the fantasy writers do. You can call them pundits, prognosticators, experts, or idiots (seems like a popular term when I see reader comments), but these guys work hard at providing us with fantasy advice. And, given the kind of traffic that goes to their sites and blogs, I guess we actually like the advice they’re giving.
In just a couple days, we’ll announce the rankings of the most accurate fantasy football experts, based on data collected from their 2009 in-season weekly player rankings. I think the results may surprise a lot of people. I know my personal “cram for my draft” reading list has changed dramatically. Thankfully, it’s a lot shorter now too since we’re not just announcing the winners but our entire ranked list! You’ll need to register to see the whole list, but it’s free.
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