We’ve seen one week of a Moss-less Patriots team. What have we learned? Are fantasy players overreacting to one week, or was it a good indication of things to come? Will Fred Taylor ever come back and be a factor, or is it the BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead show for the rest of the year? Should I mention Sammy Morris too?
With so many questions, we asked 7 of our Featured Pros to help us navigate through Belichick’s brain.
No Randy Moss? No problem. In Week 6, Deon Branch exceeding everyone’s expectations. Was that a sign of more to come, or are people giving up on Brandon Tate too early? Also, who’s fantasy worthy among the Patriots RB platoon?
Pat Fitzmaurice – Pro Football Weekly
The Branch resurrection was a shocker. I thought he was toast. I guess we have to take him seriously, though I don’t know how confident I’d feel about using him as a weekly starter. Don’t count out Tate. He still has the most star potential of any receiver on the Patriots, Welker included. Welker is still the most valuable guy here, but he loses a little bit of steam without Moss. I have to think Julian Edelman figures into things at some point. Dude can play. Brady is probably going to spread it around all season, limiting the fantasy value of any one guy. Welker is still an every-week starter, and TE Aaron Hernandez might have the most fantasy value of any Patriot pass catcher.
The New England running backs … who knows? Bill Belichick hasn’t committed to a single back since Corey Dillon, and he’s not going to change his ways this season. Woodhead and Green-Ellis will share the load and put up unspectacular full-season numbers, although one or the other might shine in a given week. Fred Taylor or Sammy Morris could also steal a few carries, but you don’t want to own either of them.
We shouldn’t read too much into the Branch/Tate spilt from week 6 as Baltimore’s aggressive defense kept Brady from getting comfortable enough to air
it out more than once or twice. Tate is still the designated deep target who can have a good fantasy week on one play, and the Pats did call his number on a long route in overtime, albeit unsuccessfully. Branch will still be a good play in close games with a lot of crunch time action like the Ravens game, because
that’s when Brady leaned on him vs. Baltimore. Branch was not a big part of the offense during the first three quarters. Branch has more immediate value, but Tate could still be the more valuable WR come fantasy playoff time.
Fred Taylor could hurt Green-Ellis’s value when (if) he returns from injury because Green-Ellis is only a competent, but unspectacular option in the running game. Woodhead is here to stay as a more souped-up Kevin Faulk in passing situtaions who can also find running room between the tackles and get a drive or three to himself every game. Consider him a terrific flex option going forward.
Phil Dussault – Ultimate FF Strategy
Deion Branch was targeted 8 more times than Brandon Tate last week but he was only on the field for 19 more snaps (54 to 35). There’s no doubt that he’s the number two WR but is he now a top 15 fantasy WR? I highly doubt it. Branch will have good games and bad games, so will Tate, it will be a weekly thing depending on match-ups. Over the next 10 weeks I,d say that Branch will probably have about 40 to 45 catches and Tate about 25 to 30.
You’re really asking us to predict what Bill Belichick will do with his RBs? C’mon man! Taylor will come back and have some games of 4-5 carries and some sof 10-12 carries, just like Green-Ellis and Woodhead. At the end of the year Woodhead and Green-Ellis will probably have more games with 10-12 carries but you know they’ll all get their chance.
For the Patriots, what you saw in Week 7 is what you will continue to see the rest of the year. Deion Branch will continue to be a consistent source of catches with a few touchdowns. Brandon Tate will have a couple good games where he gets a long catch or 2, but predicting those weeks will be difficult. I still feel the biggest beneficiary of the Randy Moss trade will be Aaron Hernandez.
I do not expect Fred Taylor to get too involved, expect for stealing the occasional touchdown away from BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Danny Woodhead will continue to get 8-12 touches. Overall, the Patriot running backs will all have very limited value, as usual.
Sean Haugh – Fantasy Football Maniaxs
New England is almost certainly going to take a committee approach with their receivers for the rest of the season. Deion Branch was a streaky player in his previous incarnation with the Patriots and will be again. Besides Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, I expect as the season progresses that they will want to see what they have got in their younger players Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski.
As for the running back situation, Fred Taylor will get some work upon his return, but expect that backfield to remain pretty much as it is right now, an equal timeshare between Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, with Woodhead holding the edge in PPR formats. Just like they did when Taylor went down, New England will just go out and get someone else to run the ball and expect him to be productive rather than giving the tailback job to primarily one back.
I love Fred Taylor but at this point he just can’t stay on the field. Even if he does come back, I’m sure something else will take him right out (opposite Godfather 3 effect), therefore Woodhead is the Pats RB you want with some Law Firm love in there as well.
I also think Brandon Tate is the non-Wes Welker Pats receiver you want. In Week One, for the Chargers, after Legedu Naanee put up huge fantasy numbers and Malcolm Floyd did squat, everyone seemed to jump off the Floyd bandwagon and onto’s Naanee’s. However I did not. Now look where they are (assume healthy). I think the same goes for Tate and Branch. Everyone loved Tate and poo poo-ed Branch, but after one game people are reversed? I don’t buy it.
Fantasy players are definitely overreacting with the Branch pickup and Tate drop. Don’t get me wrong, picking up either of these guys is not a bad idea if you can afford the space, but I hope the teams picking them up don’t expect major things from either of them. Just like Bellichek does with his RBs, New England will revert to the good ol’ days spreading the ball all over the field hurting all of their value.
The biggest winner in NE is Aaron Hernandez. He is going to be used often and look much more like a WR than a TE. Branch had a big week last week after a long time away, but that is not going to be a fantasy star. Tate has just as much potential and after watching Branch in Seattle for the past several years, I’d rather see if Tate will become startable. It’s either Tate or neither.
Speaking of RBs, there is little value here as usual, but if you want to pick up anyone, make sure its Woodhead. He’s the biggest threat being the biggest RB receiver on the team. He could give you ~70-80 all rushing/receiving yds each week and a 50/50 probability for a TD. If this helps your team, pick him up.
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