Week 4 of the NFL season has come and gone and it brought about a new set of surprise performers. As we pointed out in our Sunday Studs post, you probably had a great week if your preseason draft strategy was to stockpile fantasy studs from 2007 (LT, TO, Carson Palmer, etc) and hope that a time warp occurred. For everyone else, the results were likely more mixed given the slew of unexpected outcomes.
So which experts went out on a limb and predicted this week’s surprise players? We’ll take a look at the top bold predictions from the experts in week 4 and how well these picks turned out. As always, keep in mind that a bold prediction for our purposes occurs when an expert is the only person in our field of 30+ experts to rank a particular player above another player.
Bold Predictions: Top Hits
Match-up: Terrell Owens (WR #28) over Randy Moss (WR #5)
Expert: Sports Illustrated
Difference in Fantasy Points: +28.2
*Ranks in the Match-up header represent each player’s Expert Consensus Rank (ECR)
This is one of those picks where we had to double and triple-check the rankings to make sure we were reading things properly. Terrell Owens had looked so average throughout the first three weeks of the season that he seemed like a better candidate for an emotional breakdown rather than a breakout performance. Credit goes to Sports Illustrated though because they liked T.O.’s potential against a shaky Browns defense and gave him the best rank (WR #16) of all of the experts we monitored. 10 catches, 222 yards receiving, 1 TD later and we can safely say T.O. rewarded SI’s faith in him.
As for Randy Moss, Sports Illustrated had him considerably lower (WR #17) than the expert consensus. While not perfect advice, SI was at least on the right track with this one since Moss wasn’t close (a disastrous 0 points) to meeting his fantasy expectations. One positive note for everyone is that the Patriots have their bye this week so at least Moss is providing advance notice that he won’t be showing up in week 5.
Match-up: Bruce Gradkowski (QB #14) over Jay Cutler (QB #7)
Expert: WhatIfSports
Difference in Fantasy Points: +17.0
We typically have a rule for our top hits/misses list whereby we don’t include players who are injured during a game because it’s virtually impossible to predict injuries. This week, however, we’re introducing the “Jay Cutler Exception” to this rule. In case you didn’t see, Cutler sat out the second half vs. the Giants with a concussion after being sacked a staggering 9 times in 2 quarters. To put this performance from the Giants defense in the proper perspective, the Jacksonville Jaguars had only 14 sacks all of last year. In other words, this was enough of a sample size to suggest that things probably weren’t going to improve much if Cutler had stayed in the game. And as a Cutler owner myself, it’s enough to give me nightmares for the rest of the week.
WhatIfSports gets the credit for not only giving Cutler his worst rank (QB #13) of the week but also for seeing some potential in Bruce Gradkowski (their QB #6). While Gradkowski wasn’t perfect on Sunday (278 yards passing, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), he did accumulate enough fantasy points (14.7) to easily distance himself from Cutler, therefore making this a nice piece of start/sit advice from WhatIfSports.
Match-up: Mike Tolbert (RB #29) over Matt Forte (RB #11)
Expert: KFFL
Difference in Fantasy Points: +13.0
KFFL was ahead of the curve this week in ranking Mike Tolbert as their RB #4. By comparison, Tolbert’s next highest expert ranking was RB #17. KFFL’s successful pick came as a result of correctly anticipating that Tolbert would receive a featured role in San Diego’s offense due to an elbow injury sustained by typical starter, Ryan Mathews. Tolbert did in fact serve as the starter for San Diego and turned in a strong performance (100 yards rushing, 1 TD) that might earn him more playing time in the future.
Match-up: Brandon Lloyd (RB #37) over DeSean Jackson (WR #4)
Expert: WhatIfSports
Difference in Fantasy Points: +9.4
This pick from WhatIfSports qualifies as the very definition of a bold prediction. They went out on a limb by predicting that Brandon Lloyd would have another big day for the Broncos and ranked him as their WR #5. The next highest expert ranking for Lloyd was #18 so WhatIfSports was alone in predicting that Lloyd would be a top performer. It turned out to be a good prediction as Lloyd finished as a top 10 WR and was featured heavily in Denver’s offense (11 catches, 115 yards).
DeSean Jackson, on the other hand, was ranked as WhatIfSports’ WR #7 which was below DJax’s expert consensus rank. Jackson’s performance (3 catches, 19 yards) was undoubtedly impacted by the rib injury that forced an early exit from Eagles QB, Michael Vick (apparently, it’s not good for a WR’s fantasy outlook when his replacement QB, Kevin Kolb, can’t/won’t throw the ball beyond 10 yards). In any event, WhatIfSports got this one right regardless of the circumstances and they especially deserve kudos for taking a big risk and nailing their Brandon Lloyd ranking.
Match-up: LaDainian Tomlinson (RB #10) over Michael Turner (RB #4)
Expert: Sports Illustrated
Difference in Fantasy Points: +19.7
In retrospect, it’s possible that this prediction shouldn’t have been too surprising. LaDainian Tomlinson has looked revitalized all season long and the Jets had a favorable match-up against the hapless Bills. Given the circumstances, it was conceivable that Tomlinson could receive an increased workload. Michael Turner, on the other hand, has been inconsistent during the early going of the season and the Falcons are apparently trying to limit his carries as a result of his injury history. Either way, Sports Illustrated deserves credit for being the only site we tracked to predict Tomlinson (their RB #8) would be a better fantasy option than Turner (their RB #9) in week 4.
Bold Predictions: Top Misses
Of course, nobody hits 100% of the time on their risky predictions so we also have an associated set of picks from the experts that didn’t pan out. Click on each player match-up below to view an instant profile of the top upset predictions that the experts missed on in week 4.
- Devin Thomas (WR #65) over Calvin Johnson (WR #13) – Sports Illustrated
- Robert Meachem (WR #57) over Terrell Owens (WR #28) – Roger Rotter (Fox Sports)
- Kenneth Darby (RB #35) over Maurice Jones-Drew (RB #5) – Fantasy Sharks
- Brandon Jackson (RB #25) over LaDainian Tomlinson (RB #10) – FanHouse
- Malcolm Floyd (WR #16) over Reggie Wayne (WR #1) – Sports Illustrated
- Owen Daniels (TE #17) over Dustin Keller (TE #4) – WhatIfSports
We’ll follow-up again next week to review the top bold predictions from week 5. In the meantime, for those interested in accuracy results, the week 4 expert scores and leaderboards will be unveiled on Wednesday. For full access to these results, you can sign up (Free) to become a FantasyPros registered member. And for all of our latest updates, be sure to check us out on Twitter.
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