The NFL doesn’t get much crazier than what we witnessed in week 10. To recap, we had hapless teams (DAL, DEN & SEA) picking up resounding wins, the Eagles imitating a Tecmo Bowl offense, a game-deciding Hail Mary that may or may not have caused announcer Gus Johnson’s head to explode, and a power outage that temporarily halted a game. Things were so bizarre that there was even a headline Sunday night that read “Report: Fins want to work out JaMarcus Russell”. To this, I’m pretty sure Dolphins fans “wanted” to bang their collective heads against the wall.
Amidst this chaos, it would certainly seem to have been a good week for the fantasy experts to take a flier on a few bold predictions with their player rankings. What follows is a breakdown of the best picks where the experts went out on a limb as well as the risky picks that didn’t quite pan out.
Bold Predictions: Top Hits
Match-up: Matt Cassel (QB #20) over Peyton Manning (QB #2)
Expert: WhatIfSports
Difference in Fantasy Points: +25.66
*Ranks in the Match-up header represent each player’s Expert Consensus Rank (ECR)
If his performance on Sunday is any indication, Matt Cassel’s true calling in life may be as a garbage man. Once the Chiefs got down by 35 points and had no chance to come back, it was like a switch flipped in Cassel’s head and he sensed the opportunity was there to clean up against a soft Denver defense. After racking up 469 yards passing and 4 TDs with the game well in hand, we can safely say that the mission was accomplished. And while WhatIfSports may not have predicted that virtually all of his stats would come during garbage time, we have to credit them for being the only expert site to rank Cassel as a top 10 QB.
As for the other half of this match-up, we wrote last week about how WhatIfSports surprised everyone by ranking Brett Favre ahead of Peyton Manning. They continued the risky action this week by handing Manning the worst ranking (QB #11) of all the experts we tracked. While it may be rare to go against Manning and live to see another day, WhatIfSports has now impressively done so in consecutive weeks thanks to Cassel’s resounding 25 fantasy point edge in week 10.
Match-up: Dwayne Bowe (WR #22) over Reggie Wayne (WR #3)
Expert: KFFL
Difference in Fantasy Points: +27.2
Every garbage man needs a partner (or so I think) and there was no better helping hand for Matt Cassel than Dwayne Bowe in week 10. Bowe turned in the game of his life against the Broncos with 186 yards receiving and 2 TDs. This was enough to earn him the honor of being the top fantasy WR for the week. The performance also turned out to be a big hit for KFFL as they ranked Bowe higher (WR #8) than every other expert we monitored.
Meanwhile, Reggie Wayne was a surprising non-factor (just 3 catches, 34 yards) as the Colts’ offense struggled against the Bengals. KFFL was also ahead of the curve here by ranking Wayne considerably lower (WR #11) than the Expert Consensus (WR #3). The combined result of their rankings is that KFFL was the only expert site to correctly predict that Bowe would outperform Wayne in week 10.
Match-up: Mark Sanchez (QB #16) over Peyton Manning (QB #2)
Expert: Fantasy Sharks
Difference in Fantasy Points: +16.96
Yes, another pick against Peyton Manning. This was a very gutsy prediction delivered by Fantasy Sharks; especially considering that Mark Sanchez was facing a Browns’ defense that had contained the Patriots’ high octane offense the previous week. They liked the growth Sanchez was showing, though, and ranked him the highest (QB #6) of the experts we follow. And with nearly half of the field ranking Manning as their top QB, Fantasy Sharks was one of the few sites (along with WhatIfSports) to give him a relatively low ranking (QB #8). Both rankings ultimately represented quality advice as Sanchez had another excellent game (299 yards passing, 2 TDs) and this was more than enough to make him a better week 10 fantasy play than Manning (185 yards passing, 0 TDs).
Match-up: Brian Hartline (WR #52) over Randy Moss (WR #19)
Expert: Sports Illustrated
Difference in Fantasy Points: +7.2
It might be a bad sign for Randy Moss’ career when experts are starting to (correctly) predict that 3rd string WRs will outperform him. In this case, Sports Illustrated went out on a limb by not only ranking Moss low (WR #44), but also by seeing something in Brian Hartline (WR #22). It ended up being the right call as Moss was nonexistent on Sunday (1 catch, 26 yards) while Hartline had a solid showing (5 catches, 98 yards) that landed him as the 30th best fantasy WR for the week. This was one of Hartline’s best games as a pro and he can celebrate that achievement as well as the news that JaMarcus Russell won’t be throwing him passes anytime soon.
Match-up: Deon Butler (WR #58) over Brandon Marshall (WR #16)
Expert: Fantasy Sharks
Difference in Fantasy Points: +9.6
Deon Butler is a player that several experts have touted as a sleeper pick for several weeks running. The combination of his speed and the lack of any other deep threat in Seattle’s passing game have made him an enticing gamble. While Butler failed to deliver on those predictions in previous weeks, credit goes to Fantasy Sharks for sticking with him in week 10 against a shaky Arizona defense. Their ranking (WR #22) was considerably higher than any other expert and Butler rewarded the faith by finishing the week as the 18th best fantasy WR.
Fantasy Sharks also did a good job of spotting that Brandon Marshall would be in for a struggle against the Titans. They noted Miami’s unreliable QB situation as a factor in Marshall’s declining performance and ranked him lower (WR #33) than the Expert Consensus as a result. Marshall finished the weekend with just 3 catches for 34 yards so Fantasy Sharks was right on the money with their prediction.
Bold Predictions: Top Misses
Nobody gets all of their predictions correct so it hardly comes as a surprise that the experts missed the mark with some of their bold picks. Click on each player match-up below to view an instant profile of the risky predictions that didn’t pan out.
- Joe Flacco (QB #8) over Michael Vick (QB #1) – KFFL
- Jacoby Jones (WR #45) over Dwayne Bowe (WR #22) – FanHouse
- Braylon Edwards (WR #27) over Roddy White (WR #7) – Sports Illustrated
- Santana Moss (WR #24) over Calvin Johnson (WR #6) – Paul Greco (FantasyPros911)
- Brett Favre (QB #18) over Joe Flacco (QB #8) – Fantasy Fanatics
- Thomas Jones (RB #18) over Chris Johnson (RB #3) – KFFL
- Derek Anderson (QB #24) over Kyle Orton (QB #6) – Fantasy Sharks
We’ll be back again next week with a recap of the top bold predictions from week 11. In the meantime, you can stay current with the latest breaking news and articles from over 125 sources by checking out our fantasy advice portal, The Handoff. And to keep up with all of the latest FantasyPros’ updates, be sure to follow us on Twitter.
