Week 8: Top 2 Experts vs. the Field
Last week, we examined the rankings of the top 2 experts at each position and found where they disagree with the remaining consensus of experts. Aside from a few unpredictable injuries (M. Lynch, S. Moss), the results were quite accurate.
To recap quickly, the top 2 experts ranked the following players higher than the remaining experts for week 7: Antonio Gates, Dan Bailey, Matt Bryant, and Denver’s D/ST. Meanwhile, the top 2 pundits slotted these guys lower than their peers: James Starks, Brandon Marshall, Mike Thomas, Greg Little, Matt Cassel, Curtis Painter, Dustin Keller, and San Diego’s D/ST.
As you can see, the advice of the top 2 experts was very good in most cases. Let’s see what they suggest for week 8. As always, the players the top experts “like” are highlighted in green while the guys they “dislike” are marked in red.
WR
Top Experts: Staff Rankings (Fantasy Football Freaks) and Michael Fabiano (NFL.com)
Jeremy Maclin (vs. DAL)
Top 2: WR #8
The Field: WR #14
Vincent Jackson (@ KC)
Top 2: WR #15
The Field: WR #8
Dez Bryant (@ PHI)
Top 2: WR #16
The Field: WR #10
Vincent Jackson has been struggling lately. Our top WR experts don’t expect him to bust out of it this week at Kansas City. The Cowboys @ Eagles game should be a fun watch on Sunday night. Most experts consider DeSean Jackson to be Vick’s #1 target, but Maclin has been out-producing him from a fantasy perspective. The consensus rankings of the top WR experts endorse Maclin at WR #8 this week, ahead of big names like Colston, Austin, and Fitzgerald. Interestingly enough, DeSean Jackson doesn’t show up until #18. Staying on the Cowboys/Eagles matchup, our top experts don’t like Dez Bryant as much as most do this week.
RB
Top Experts: Pat Fitzmaurice (ProFootballWeekly) and Eric Karabell (ESPN)
Knowshon Moreno (vs. DET)
Top 2 – RB #17
The Field – RB #21
Chris Johnson (vs. IND)
Top 2 – RB #12
The Field – RB #8
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (@ PIT)
Top 2 – RB #20
The Field – RB #15
Something is going on in Tennessee. Many experts believe the soft matchup against the Colts at home is just what Chris Johnson needs to get going again. However, our top RB experts don’t appear as confident. Furthermore, they rank Javon Ringer at RB #33, a full 11 slots ahead of the field. It’s an interesting time to be part of Denver’s backfield. With McGahee out this week and Tebow a threat to steal goal line TDs, many Moreno owners must be wondering what to make of his matchup this week. Lucky for you, the best RB experts like Moreno as RB #17 this week, 4 slots ahead of the field. Finally, Pat and Eric’s combined rankings suggest they don’t expect much from Green-Ellis at Pittsburgh this week. Brady has historically played very well against the Steelers, so they might be expecting the Patriots to attack more in the air than on the ground.
QB
Top Experts: Ross Miles (Pro Football Focus) and Staff Rankings (FFToolbox)
Tim Tebow (vs. DET)
Top 2: QB #7
The Field: QB #10
Alex Smith (vs. CLE)
Top 2: QB #15
The Field: QB #19
Tebow’s performance last week left many confused. For 56 minutes he looked awful, and for 4 minutes he looked unstoppable. As a Tebow owner in a 2 QB league, do I look at the last few minutes, rejoice in his fantasy heroics, and sit back as he leads me to a championship? Or do I look at the game as a whole, weep at his general ineffectiveness, and offer a trade to every owner in my league? Needless to say, I’m very pleased to see our top QB experts endorse Tebow as QB #7 this week. Their combined rankings place him in front of a dependable trio in Romo, Rivers, and Manning. In less exciting news, Alex Smith gets some love from our QB experts as QB #15 this week.
TE
Top Experts: Pat Fitzmaurice (ProFootballWeekly) and Sigmund Bloom (FootballGuys)
Heath Miller (vs. NE)
Top 2: TE #11
The Field: TE #15
Fred Davis (@ BUF)
Top 2: TE #8
The Field: TE #5
Fred Davis has a lot going for him. First of all, he is a USC Trojan (fight on!). He is also coming off of two weeks in which he totaled 12 catches for 175 yards and a score. Washington is now without their top RB in Hightower and their top WR in Moss, meaning Davis could see even more action on offense. However, one thing Fred Davis doesn’t have going for him this week is the support of our top TE experts. Sure, TE #8 isn’t bad, but when the Field has him at #5, the combo of Fitzmaurice & Bloom must see something they don’t like this week. They do, however, like Heath Miller vs. NE. Their consensus rankings land Miller as TE #11 in front of Gresham and Cook.
D/ST
Top Experts: Mike Clay (Pro Football Focus) and Ken Zallis (Fans Fantasy Football)
New England Patriots (vs. PIT)
Top 2: D/ST #13
The Field: D/ST #17
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ HOU)
Top 2: D/ST #15
The Field: D/ST #21
The most accurate D/ST experts and the remaining field of experts turned in nearly identical lists for their top ten D/ST this week, but we do find some disagreements if we dig a little deeper. The Steelers’ offense has looked pretty good the last few weeks, but our D/ST experts expect New England to keep them in check. Jacksonville’s D looked incredible against Baltimore last week, and our top experts don’t think it was a total fluke. They rank the Jags D/ST 15th on the week, even on the road against a high-powered Texans’ offense.
K
Top Experts: Pat Fitzmaurice (ProFootballWeekly) and Kevin Roberts (NFL Soup)
Lawrence Tynes (vs. MIA)
Top 2: K #8
The Field: K #17
Dan Bailey (@ PHI)
Top 2: K #11
The Field: K #6
Last week, Fitzmaurice and Roberts’ combined rankings left Dan Bailey as the #1 kicker. He kicked well and posted double digit fantasy points. Perhaps it’s the road matchup in Philly, or the pressure of a highly anticipated matchup on Sunday night, but it is curious that they demote him all the way from #1 to #11, especially with the emergence of DeMarco Murray only adding to their scoring capability. If you need a bye week kicker, Lawrence Tynes could be your guy. Our top kicker experts like him as the #8 kicker this week, a full 9 spots ahead of the field.
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I’ll be back again next week for another breakdown of the players the top experts like and dislike. In the meantime, don’t forget to sign up for our (free) Beat the Expert contest vs. John Paulsen (The Fantasy Shrink). There’s a $1,000 prize pool at stake and John is playing to benefit the American Heart Association.