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Week 16: Top 2 Experts vs. the Field

Welcome to the week 16 edition of Top 2 Experts vs. The Field. Each week, I examine the consensus rankings of the 2 most accurate experts at each position and see how they compare to the remaining experts. As always, the players featured below represent the guys the top experts notably “like” or “dislike” compared to their peers.

 

RB

Top Experts: Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) and Site Projections (numberFire)

 

Chris “Beanie” Wells (@ CIN)

Top 2: RB #13

The Field: RB #20

 

Steven Jackson (@ PIT)

Top 2: RB #19

The Field: RB #25

 

C.J. Spiller (vs. DEN)

Top 2: RB #18

The Field: RB #12

 

Beanie Wells has been rather pedestrian over the last 3 weeks. He’s faced tough opponents in Dallas, San Francisco, and Cleveland, but the Bengals also defend the run well. They give up only 3.7 yards per carry, yet they have also given up 6 touchdowns to running backs in the last 6 weeks. That could be why our top RB experts place Wells at RB #13 this week.

 

Steven Jackson draws a tough assignment in Pittsburgh. Kellen Clemens looked decent enough as the Rams QB last week, but there’s a good chance that Pittsburgh hones in on Jackson and forces Clemens to the air. Still, the top RB experts like Jackson more than most.

 

C.J. Spiller posted a monster game last week. His 167 total yards were more than he notched in his first 6 games…combined! Oh, and he also doubled his season TD total from 2 to 4. Our expert consensus rankings place Spiller just outside the top 10, but the most accurate RB experts temper their expectations a little bit—they have him at #18 on the week.

 

WR

Top Experts: Mike Woellert (FantasyFootball.com) and Site Rankings (FantasyFootballNerd)

 

Stevie Johnson (vs. DEN)

Top 2: WR #16

The Field: WR #23

 

Victor Cruz (@ NYJ)

Top 2: WR #19

The Field: WR #13

 

Stevie Johnson posted good numbers against Darrelle Revis and Cortland Finnegan, so he can do so against Champ Bailey too. In 3 out of the last 4 games, Denver has kept opposing WRs to under 100 combined yards. Okay, so Gronkowski and Hernandez did most of the damage last week, but its still an impressive stat. Regardless, our top WR experts like Johnson like week.

 

The experts don’t, however, like Victor Cruz as much at the Jets. Revis will likely split time between Nicks and Cruz, which is bad news for both of them.

 

QB

Top Experts: Gregg Rosenthal (Rotoworld) and Staff Composite (SI.com)

 

Philip Rivers (@ DET)

Top 2: QB #6

The Field: QB #9

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. DEN)

Top 2: QB #21

The Field: QB #17

 

Philip Rivers has gotten his act together over the past several games. He has not thrown an interception since week 11, and he’s led the Chargers to three consecutive wins over Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Baltimore. Stafford and co. are likely to put up points against a disappointing Charger defense, so Rivers could be in for a big day if he and Stafford decide to duke it out in the air. Our top QB experts like Rivers as QB #6 this week.

 

The top rated experts aren’t so high on Ryan Fitzpatrick. It is a December home-game in Buffalo, so chances are the weather won’t exactly facilitate passing. Fitzpatrick’s last 2 games have not been encouraging either (2 TDs, 5 picks).


 

TE

Top Experts: Walter Cherepinsky (Walter Football) and Pat Fitzmaurice (ProFootballWeekly)

 

Jermichael Finley (vs. CHI)

Top 2: TE #7

The Field: TE #5

 

After Jermichael Finley received the most targets of any Packer last week, it might be tempting to dismiss his week 14 “zero for zero” and continue to rank him among the top tight ends. He has an elite QB, and the Jennings injury means there are likely to be more targets coming his way. Plus, the Bears rank 30th in points allowed to tight ends, and Finley torched them for 85 yards and 3 TDs in week 3. However, our top TE experts slide him toward the bottom of the top 10 this week. If you’ve watched any Packers games lately, you’ve probably seen Finley drop a pass or two. Finley owners must be wondering what he could do if he would just catch the ball.

 

 

D/ST

Top Experts: Mike Krueger (FFToday) & Michael Beller (SI.com)

 

Oakland Raiders (@ KC)

Top 2: D/ST #13

The Field: D/ST #21

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (@ TEN)

Top 2: D/ST #15

The Field: D/ST #24

 

If you are scrounging for a defense to help you win your fantasy championship, our top D/ST experts might recommend Oakland or Jacksonville. Kansas City seemed capable enough with Kyle Orton at QB. If the Packers couldn’t record a single sack or turnover, it’s tough to imagine the Oakland unit giving them much trouble. Last week was Orton’s first real game as a Chief, so while the Packers didn’t know what the expect from Kansas City, Oakland has at least one game of film to study.

 

Jacksonville’s D/ST took a big step back last week. After posting a ridiculous 7 turnover, 2 touchdown game against Tampa Bay, they gave up 41 points to Atlanta while recording no sacks or turnovers. Tennessee doesn’t turn the ball over that much, but they also have the old, declining Matt Hasselback and the young, inexperienced Jake Locker at QB.

 

 

K

Top Experts: Dan McQuade (SI.com) and Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Sports)

 

Alex Henery (@ DAL) 

Top 2: K #11

The Field: K #17

 

Ryan Succop (vs. OAK)

Top 2: K #13

The Field: K #24

 

Michael Vick is back, and he brought the Philly offense with him. The Eagles dismantled the Jets last week to the tune of 45 points. Alex Henery isn’t known for his overwhelming accuracy or strong leg, but our top K experts think he’ll get some chances this week at Dallas.

 

The experts also like Ryan Succop a whopping 11 spots more than the field. Succop nailed 4 field goals in the Chiefs win over the Packers (thanks in part to some nice red zone stands by the Packers D). With Kyle Orton leading the charge, the Chiefs offense suddenly looks somewhat capable. Plus, the game time forecast for Kansas City predicts clear weather, which can be a big factor for kickers at this time of year.

 

 

Best of luck to everyone battling it out this weekend for a championship. If you’re looking for an additional challenge, be sure to sign up for our (free) Beat the Expert contest. There’s a $1,000 prize pool at stake and anyone who beats this week’s experts will win an additional $10. Good luck!

 

Photo Credits: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6

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