Year in and year out, a handful of skill players have a built in excuse for getting out to a slow start; they’re still learning their new offense. 2012 will be no different. 16 of the 32 NFL teams will kick off the season with new offensive coordinators. With all of these new signal callers, fantasy numbers are sure to be impacted. We asked our pros who they expect will capitalize on their new playbooks and who will be lost in the X’s and O’s.
Featured Pros:
Q1 – Of the following teams with new offensive coordinators, which QB will benefit the most from the change? Which QB’s fantasy numbers will be negatively impacted the most?
Postive Impact: Jay Cutler has worked with some great coordinators over his time, most recently Mike Martz. Now he works with Mike Tice. Tice was a less than average head coach, but he made sure Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss got their numbers every season. He was the creator of the Randy Ratio which was a system to keep Moss involved in games. The Randy Ratio was to get Moss the ball on 40% of throws, the Vikings were 4-1 when they did it, 1-10 when they did not. Look for Brandon Marshall to figure into Tice’s latest “Randy Ratio.”
Negative Impact: Sam Bradford is having a tough enough time making it in the NFL without a superstar WR; so what do the Rams do? They bring in Brian Schottenheimer who was essentially a failed offensive coordinator and QB Coach for Mark Sanchez. Bradford may be able to relate to Brain, but young QBs need successful veteran coaches to develop.
Postive Impact: I think it’s a close call between Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan, but I’ll go with Ryan. Atlanta has been slowly working away from a run-heavy offense and even started to pass way more than usual under Mike Mularkey last season. Enter OC Dirk Koetter, who loves to throw, and we’re going to see plenty of Ryan to Roddy White and Julio Jones. There’s talk of even getting third receiver Harry Douglas more involved and Michael Turner’s carries dropping.
Negative Impact: The quarterback that may not be in for a great year with a change at OC is Mark Sanchez. Obviously Tim Tebow being in town kills his stock a bit, but Sanchez still totaled 32 touchdowns last year, which made him a solid fantasy starter, believe it or not. I doubt he gets anywhere close to that in 2012, however, even if he holds off Tebow and plays all 16 games. The fact is, Sparano was brought in to beef up the rushing attack, and make life easier on Sanchez. That won’t equate to better fantasy production.
Q2 – From the same list, which rushing corps will benefit the most from the hire of their new OC? Which rushing attack will most likely slow down?
Postive Impact: The Cowboys decided to bring in one of the best offensive line coaches in the NFL, Bill Callahan of the Jets. Callahan had the Jets as one of the leading rushing teams in the NFL consistently, despite not having an ELITE RB. Now as an offensive coordinator with the talented Cowboys roster, DeMarco Murray should have a lot of open holes and red zone opportunities as defenses have to do whatever they can to slow down Romo and all of his weapons. Cowboys are slowly demoting Felix Jones more and more by the week, which means that Murray will be a true workhorse Fantasy RB this season.
Negative Impact: Donald Brown. The Colts have a young superstar QB in Andrew Luck. They brought in Bruce Arians who was an offensive genius for the Steelers during their recent Super Bowl runs. Arians really depends on his QB being the focal point of the offense, even if it means running the ball 14 times the entire game.
Postive Impact: Kansas City is in for a big turn around. They’re getting a healthy Jamaal Charles back and added the bruising Peyton Hillis. Considering Thomas Jones was regressing majorly the past two years, I think the Charles/Hillis combo is the Chiefs’ best in years. Not just that, but they added OC Brian Daboll, who helped Hillis to his crazy 1,100+ yard and 11 rushing TD season in 2010.
Negative Impact: While the Falcons could soar (pun intended) in the passing game this year, the evolution of their passing game should bring a big hit to Michael Turner‘s fantasy value. Turner is still the main goal-line back, so he has great value in TD leagues, but he’ll be off the field more and more to get pass-friendly backs like Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling more opportunities.
As always, excellent insight from our pros. Be sure to use the preseason to your advantage, looking out for packages that help or hinder your targeted players.
