After Peterson & Foster, Who Gets Drafted Next?

Pick 1.03: Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster are off the board. Who are you selecting?

If you entered a room filled with fantasy experts (your dream scenario, I know), you’d be hard-pressed to get 90% of them to agree on much. However, that’s about the percentage that would recommend taking Adrian Peterson #1 in a STD draft. If you go 1 step further, over 63% of the experts would agree that Peterson and Arian Foster should go #1 and #2 in your drafts. That jives with what you’ll see from most ADP sources. It also lines up with how often you can expect both players to be the top 2 picks in our Mock Draft Simulator.

So, if A.D. and Foster are likely to go #1 and #2 in your STD draft, that brings up the obvious question:

Who should be the 3rd pick?

The answer isn’t as clear-cut. If you’re to believe our expert consensus (and, hey, why wouldn’t you), there are 7 candidates for the pick. Before we get some thoughts on the top options, here the 7 names and the % of experts that would select each player:

Expert Picks at 1.03

*Percentage determined by the experts making up our Overall Consensus Rankings

Experts’ Take

We asked the featured expert who is high on each of the names above to explain why they would pick that player 1.03 in this draft scenario. Here are their thoughts.

Doug Martin | ECR: #3 Overall

“Tampa Bay will continue to rely on Doug “Muscle Hamster” Martin as Josh Freeman has yet to show us he is the QB we had expected him to be. With the Bucs “running-to-win” style and possession management scheme, Martin will continue to be that workhouse style fantasy RB as Tampa Bay slows each game down for the struggling Josh Freeman.” – Nick Vertucci (SAFF)

Jamaal Charles | ECR: #4 Overall

“For starters, Arian Foster carries a few red flags heading into the 2013 season — his high usage in recent years and dwindling peripheral statistics are cause enough for concern. As for Jamaal Charles, I believe he is finally in a good situation with Andy Reid. For some reason Reid has developed a reputation as a running back killer, but Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy prove otherwise. Charles doesn’t have serious competition for playing time. He will finally get normal usage, and he is arguably the most dynamic running back in the league.” – Alessandro Miglio (Pro Football Focus)

C.J. Spiller | ECR: #6 Overall

“Spiller finished seventh among fantasy running backs in 2013, despite having 50 less carries than any other RB in the Top-10. He is a homerun hitter that expects to see a bigger role in the offense with new head coach Doug Marrone, which should mean an increase in his 207 carries and 43 receptions from last year. Spiller averaged as many yards per carry as Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (6.0), but due to 141 less carries, he did not tally as many touchdowns or fantasy points. He is a duel threat as both a runner and receiver. He can break big runs and he should be able to score double digit touchdowns this year with an increased workload in an offense that will feature him as the top back. It all adds up to a monster season; I believe Spiller will be the second ranked running back in fantasy this year and is easily worth a high first round selection.” – Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax)

Ray Rice | #ECR: #7 Overall

“Ray Rice is the epitome of safety, which is seldom said when discussing the Running Back position. In a league where playing 16 games seems to be a rare feat, Rice hasn’t missed a game since 2008. When picking up over 1,600 combined yards while scoring double digit touchdowns is a bad year, you’re doing something right. A risky first round pick can end your season before it starts. Pick Rice once Peterson and Foster are off the board.” – Michael Sherman (Fantasy Team Advice)

Marshawn Lynch | ECR: #8 Overall

“I like Marshawn Lynch after Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster in standard leagues because you know what you’re getting from him, which has been outstanding production since he came to Seattle. In two years as the starter for the Seahawks he has scored 25 total touchdowns with more than 1,400 total yards in each season. He’s a workhorse with 315 carries in the regular season last year, and I’m not worried about Robert Turbin or Christine Michael taking him off the field. As long as he’s expected to play 16 games without a potential suspension, I’ll take his guaranteed production over the upside appeal of Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Jamaal Charles or C.J. Spiller. I love all those guys, but I like Lynch just a little bit more.” – Jamey Eisenberg (CBS Sports)

Trent Richardson | ECR: #9 Overall

“The Trent Richardson Show is scheduled to begin right out of the gate in September! Why do I feel this way? For starters, the Browns brought in Norv Turner as the team’s offensive coordinator. Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last 20 years, you have at least heard some kind of line here or there suggesting that Norv Turner is good for fantasy running back production. Turner has coached three running backs (Emmitt Smith, Ricky Williams & LaDainian Tomlinson) that have led the NFL in rushing, and for a combined five times. And, if that’s not enough of a track record, fantasy owners may remember Turner as Frank Gore’s offensive coordinator during Gore’s best-ever fantasy season (2006). Then there was LaMont Jordan, Terry Allen and Stephen Davis, all of which had elite seasons under Turner’s direction.

Well, Richardson is Norv Turner’s new bell cow rusher, and T-Rich could very well rush for 1,400 yards, pull in 50-60 receptions for 400+ receiving yards and tally 14+ total touchdowns. Some may call this crazy, but I think Richardson finishes 2013 as the top fantasy football rusher.” – Smitty (Draft Calc)

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Thanks to the Featured Pros for stopping by to share their thoughts. While the majority of pundits may be in favor of taking Doug Martin once A.D and Foster are off the board, there are certainly compelling reasons to go in a different direction.

Now the most important question…who would you take in this scenario? Let us know in the comments!