Evan Silva names the players he thinks are bound to disappoint fantasy owners in 2014. Buyer beware.

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BUSTS

1. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks

Lynch is a top-five NFL running back and that is indisputable, but our role is to forecast and not butt-pat for performances of the past. There are too many red flags for comfort here. Statistics show running back production typically dips by at least 15 percent at age 28, while 28-year-old Lynch has a league-high 1,002 rushing attempts over the past three seasons. The Seahawks have also openly spoken of increasing dynamic sophomore runner Christine Michael‘s role.

2. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins

Let’s momentarily give Morris a pass for his across-the-board statistical slippage in 2013. Let’s discuss his 2014 situation. Old Redskins coach Mike Shanahan’s unfailingly efficient zone-run game is gone. New Redskins coach Jay Gruden has an extensive history of using RBBCs from Cincinnati. Gruden is a pass-first mind. Morris struggles in the passing game, whereas it is Roy Helu‘s strength. Morris was regularly subbed out in favor of Helu under Shanahan. The odds favor Washington’s pass game taking a leap under Gruden, while Morris takes another step back.

3. Ben Tate, RB, Browns

Tate was a quality signing by the running back-needy Browns and is a good bet to open the season as the starter. But Cleveland traded up to draft Terrance West, and Tate’s checkered injury history makes him an unlikely workhorse. Expect the Browns to ease in West early in the season before gradually handing him the backfield reins. Tate will be a prime sell-high candidate if he turns in a few productive weeks to open the year. West is the feature back of the future.

4. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers

This is a fairly obvious one based on age, declining production and increased competition. Stay away from 31-year-old Gore, the biggest age-workload risk in 2014 drafts after compiling 956 carries the past three seasons, including playoffs. Over his last 10 games, Gore has managed 592 yards and three scores on 162 runs (3.65 YPC). He hit 100 rushing yards once in the final 13. He’ll have to fend off Kendall Hunter, Carlos Hyde and Marcus Lattimore for work this season.

5. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens

Rice is being ballyhooed as a bounce-back candidate after a cliff-drop 2013 campaign, but we’re not buying in. Let’s give him a pass for his 2014 suspension (2 games). Old Rutgers coach Greg Schiano ran Rice 910 times in three college seasons, and including the playoffs, he’s amassed 1,621 more across six years in the NFL. Leave out Week 11 against Chicago’s historically sieve-ish run defense, and Rice managed 529 yards and three touchdowns on 189 carries (2.80 YPC) in his other 14 games last year. Bernard Pierce may run away with Gary Kubiak’s feature back job.

6. Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals

Dalton quietly finished 2013 as the No. 3 fantasy QB behind Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, buoyed by the eighth most pass attempts in football under pass-first OC Jay Gruden. Dalton climbed the rankings with a late-season flurry during which he threw 17 TD passes over the final seven games and rushed for two more. New OC Hue Jackson plans to dramatically scale back Dalton’s attempts this season, turning him into more of a game manager while featuring Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Drafting Dalton would be a classic case of chasing last year’s stats.

7. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

Edelman deserves a back-slap for putting the Patriots’ pass game on his 2013 shoulders en route to career highs across the board. He was a waiver-wire gem. The Pats don’t want their historically brittle role player catching 105 balls in a normal year, however. With Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola healthy, Brandon LaFell signed and Josh Boyce and Kenbrell Thompkins vying for snaps, the 2014 Patriots will play receiver-by-committee. Edelman will no longer do the heavy lifting.

8. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings

Patterson provided electrifying highlights down the stretch of his rookie year and offers a ton of playmaking ability. He may still be a year away from evolving into a true wide receiver, however. Nearly two-thirds of Patterson’s 2013 targets came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and 22 of the 72 targets came on passes behind the line. Many of his big plays came on kickoff returns. New Vikings OC Norv Turner doesn’t have much history of manufacturing touches for his wideouts. If Patterson doesn’t improve as a route runner, he won’t be an every-down receiver.

9. Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars

Shorts is the annual beneficiary of bad Jaguars teams that fall behind early in games and feel forced to dial up high pass-attempt numbers in “comeback” mode. He’s the garbage-time king. The Jags are getting better and play in a weak division, however, and added wideouts of the future Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee in the second round. Shorts is staring at fewer catch-up opportunities and increased target competition. We may have seen the best of him in fantasy.

10. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills

Capitalizing on C.J. Spiller‘s high ankle sprain and the NFL’s run-heaviest offense, “F-Jax” turned in one of the unlikeliest top-10 fantasy back finishes in recent memory last season. Spiller is now healthy, and the Bills traded for more-talented Bryce Brown. At 33 1/2 years old, Jackson’s role could be significantly scaled back. Spiller and Brown are Buffalo’s 1-2 tailback punch of the future.

OVERVALUED

1. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos

Manning is commonly going in the first round of fantasy drafts. Built into his cost is the unwise assumption that Peyton will repeat his 2013 stats. Manning deserves a ton of credit for arguably the greatest regular season quarterback performance the NFL has seen. But regression to the mean is a virtual lock in Manning’s age-38 campaign. Expect final numbers closer to his career averages of 33 touchdown passes and 4,331 yards, rather than last year’s 55/5,477 career bests.

2. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers

Early drafters are treating Martin as a borderline first-round fantasy pick, which does make sense on a few levels. He’s a good runner. He was medically cleared from last year’s shoulder injury in March. He’s still only 25. New coach Lovie Smith loves to pound the rock. But the Buccaneers used an early third-round pick on Charles Sims, who is a threat to Martin’s workload both on early downs and particularly in the passing game. Add in new OC Jeff Tedford’s dubious track record of declining to involve tailbacks as receivers, and Martin would be a better value pick in round three.

3. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals

The Bengals stated early in the offseason that they envision Bernard as the next Ray Rice, but their draft-day actions speak louder than Marvin Lewis’ words. Cincinnati selected early-down bruiser Jeremy Hill in the second round, a clear indication Bernard won’t be utilized as an every-down back. A leap from Bernard’s 14 rookie-year touches per game to about 17 would be nice, but he’d struggle to return low-end RB1 fantasy value on that workload. Savvy owners will target goal-line vulture Hill in the mid to late rounds and let opponents blow second-round picks on Gio.

4. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions

Bush’s Average Draft Position was the early third round as we went to print, which is problematic for a number of reasons. New Lions OC Joe Lombardi hails from New Orleans, where Bush was utilized as a package player and in-space back early in his career. Lombardi figures to treat Bush like Darren Sproles. After the Lions signed Joique Bell to a relatively costly extension, we expect him to lead Detroit in carries and not Bush. Bush is a better PPR than standard-league target.

5. Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks

Harvin’s ADP is in the fourth round. Although he is one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers with the ball in his hands, Harvin has been injury-riddled as a pro, and even when healthy, there is some doubt about whether he could live up to his current cost. The Seahawks play run-heavy offense, and Russell Wilson throws to the open man. Harvin won’t be heavily targeted. In order to preserve Harvin’s health — Seattle is trying to win Super Bowls, mind you — it’s also entirely possible he won’t be an every-snap offensive player. Harvin has real-life value on special teams.

6. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins

D-Jax’s annual receiving average entering 2013 was 55-957-5. In one season as Chip Kelly’s pass-game focal point, Jackson posted an 82-1,332-9 career year. Fantasy owners appear to be drafting as if Jackson is still a true “No. 1” wideout under Kelly, targeting him in the fourth and fifth rounds. Instead, Jackson will be competing for targets with Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed in a less efficient Redskins passing attack. Expect numbers much more in line with his career norms. Garcon and Reed may be the true beneficiaries of Jackson’s addition with more room to operate.

7. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

The Colts insisted on limiting Hilton to third receiver/punt returner duties to open last season. An ACL tear to Reggie Wayne and Darrius Heyward-Bey‘s free agent flop forced Hilton into Andrew Luck‘s go-to role, and he finished 14th in the NFL in targets. That sort of volume isn’t consistent with how Indy’s coaching staff envisions Hilton. Now competing for looks with Wayne, a healthy Dwayne Allen, Hakeem Nicks, Coby Fleener, LaVon Brazill and perhaps Donte Moncrief, Da’Rick Rogers and Griff Whalen, Hilton’s odds are slim of living up to his fifth- to sixth-round ADP.

8. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Dolphins

Moreno won the Broncos’ feature back job in 2013 not because he was a more talented runner than Montee Ball or Ronnie Hillman. He won because he protects the ball and could protect Peyton Manning. Moreno parlayed that role into a top-five fantasy running back finish. Of Moreno’s 241 carries last season, 192 (79.7 percent) came against defenses playing six or fewer defenders in the box. Moreno won’t have that luxury playing with Ryan Tannehill and offers inferior running ability to holdover Lamar Miller. Moreno is a virtual lock for fantasy disappointment in Miami.

9. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos

Sanders was theoretically signed to replace Eric Decker. But he isn’t as good as Decker and is being selected in the same range Decker went last offseason. Built into Sanders’ cost is the assumption Peyton Manning will repeat his 2013 stats — a major long shot — as well as the notion Sanders will see similar volume to Decker, who finished 17th in the NFL in targets. Throw in the second-round selection of Cody Latimer, and Sanders carries risk of being a flat-out fantasy bust.

10. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills

Because rookies generate so much fan hype, they are annually selected too soon in re-draft leagues. We saw it last year with Tavon Austin and DeAndre Hopkins and Justin Blackmon the season before. Rookie receivers almost unfailingly struggle, with only “outliers” tending to pay dividends. And we don’t like the percentages of unearthing outliers. The Bills’ run-heavy mindset and suspect-to-be-kind quarterback play suggests Watkins will lack both consistency and upside in year one.

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