Our Buffalo Bills Correspondent, Keith Kraska, gives us the lowdown on whether fantasy owners should target Bryce Brown or Anthony Dixon on this week’s waiver wire. Kraska breaks down the tale of the tape on 4 key factors to deliver the verdict.
The Bills’ backfield will undergo an extraordinary transformation starting in Week 8 after the major injuries suffered by Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. However, the new tandem won’t look that different as far as the roles played by Anthony “Boobie” Dixon and Bryce Brown. There will still be a time share going forward, creating some roadblocks for each runner from a fantasy perspective. Coach Doug Marrone also said Monday the Bills may add a new face (Phillip Tanner) to the mix. The situation results in a fantasy quandary that may be closer than you think: Which back do you rank higher on your waiver claim priorities?
Here’s the tale of the tape, from the perspective of four key factors:
1. TALENT
The Bills traded a fourth-round pick to get Brown in the offseason. With Spiller in the final year of his contract, Brown was widely seen as the heir apparent if Spiller shuffled out of Buffalo. Like Spiller, Brown is a home-run hitter. He may be best known for a four-game stint as the Eagles’ starter when LeSean McCoy went down in 2012. In the first two of those games, Brown ran for 347 yards and four touchdowns on 43 carries. He had runs of 65 and 39 yards, and also caught eight passes in those two games (more on the other two below). He also broke off a 65-yard mop-up touchdown against Chicago late last year. Dixon is nothing special as a career backup; he has a career 3.4 yards per carry (to Brown’s 4.6), and this year, 47 of his 137 yards came on one fluke run; he has a 3.5 average otherwise for Buffalo. His fantasy value is volume-dependent. Brown is also the better receiver.
Edge: Brown
2. COACHES’ TRUST
Just as Brown is the new Spiller, Dixon assumes the Fred Jackson role, which is a plus. Dixon is a north-south chugger, making him a better fit for the Bills’ inside-heavy running scheme. Brown, like Spiller, has had a tendency to bounce runs to the outside, even when it’s not the wisest thing to do, resulting in negative yards. That four-game stint in 2012? In the second pair of games, he ran for just 40 yards on 28 carries with no TDs. That coach-irking factor is why Spiller saw his usage steadily drop this season, as the team lost patience with his struggles in their scheme. Brown also has had ball security issues (four fumbles in 2012, losing three of them, but none on 83 touches last year), and that will get you into the doghouse faster than anything. And of course, it’s somewhat telling that Dixon has been active on gamedays while Brown has not. Dixon’s increased usage, even before the injuries, shows it’s not just because of special teams. Boobie out-carried Spiller in Week 6 and already had a couple of touches before Spiller got his first and only run against Minnesota.
Edge: Dixon.
3. TOUCHDOWNS
As the bigger back, Dixon figures to get goal-line work. But that hasn’t been much a factor anyway for Buffalo, with just one goal-line score, by Jackson, which is the only TD by a Bills back this year. Nevertheless, on a weekly basis, touchdown probability is the No.1 tiebreaker when making lineup decisions.
Edge: Dixon.
4. LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITY
Based on multiple reports, including unauthorized comments from Jackson himself, Jackson’s groin injury should keep him out no longer than four weeks, and he may even be back in Week 10. Since Dixon is a Jackson-type runner, Fred’s return would presumably eat into his touches more than Brown’s. The Bills face the Jets’ tough run defense in Week 8, followed by their bye. So not only is Dixon’s window potentially short, it’s also not good schedule-wise. Spiller, on the other hand, may be done for the year, so his role is now Brown’s to lose. Whether he can make more of it than Spiller did remains to be seen, but he’s capable of running away with a feature role.
Edge: Brown.
SO, WHICH ONE TO GRAB?
The Brown-Dixon choice mirrors the Spiller-Jackson debate over the past few years. Spiller was the conventional fantasy choice, possessing elite speed and elusiveness. But Jackson has been the clear winner under Marrone, relegating Spiller to fantasy near-worthlessness. Don’t underestimate the factor of the coaches’ favor. That has trumped talent in Buffalo. Brown must be effective between the tackles if he’s going to get the touches to become a fantasy starter. That’s a tough assignment in Buffalo, where the guards have been abysmal. If you’re desperate to fill a gaping hole in your lineup, Dixon is the safer play in the short term. He won’t win any games for you, but he has the higher floor. As long as Jackson is out, Dixon’s scheme fit and touchdown potential give him the nod. If your backfield is good for now and you have room for a high-upside stash, grab Brown (though I’d rank Tre Mason higher). He has a shot to be a weekly starter in fantasy playoff time, and around your trading deadline. He’s worth the potential boom, if you can afford a potential bust.
