Early 2015 Draft Prep: Zero RB Theory

Adrian Peterson along with many RBs were not worth their ADP

Draft strategy can vary for many reasons. Preference, league scoring settings or any number of things can have an impact on how one prepares for their draft in fantasy leagues. There’s an old fantasy adage that claims fantasy drafts are won in the middle rounds. If you were to buy into this, then you should be taking a look at the ‘Zero RB Theory’, a concept developed by Shawn Siegele. In essence, your first three to four picks in your draft should be spent on those who will be catching the ball, not running it. ‘Zero RB Theory’ supports the notion that the running back position is volatile and riddled with injury, making it a far less consistent position than wide receiver or top tier tight end.

Take a look at the 2014 preseason Composite ADP of running backs compared to where their end of season rankings were according to ESPN.com’s standard scoring settings:

Out of the top five running backs ranked in the preseason, only Matt Forte finished within the top five. Owners who spent their first pick on either LeSean McCoy or Adrian Peterson are likely still kicking themselves over it.

Of the next five ranked running backs, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray, and Arian Foster outperformed their ADP, while Montee Ball and Giovani Bernard disappointed.

After that, Doug Martin and Zac Stacy tanked, Andre Ellington fell below expectations, Alfred Morris finished right around where he should have and Le’Veon Bell exploded to the number two overall back.

The final ranked backs in the top 20 all finished outside of the top 50, with the exception of Frank Gore who finished 17th overall, slightly above his preseason rank.

Out of the top 20 preseason ranked running backs, the best value was found in DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Arian Foster, Alfred Morris and Frank Gore.

In contrast, here’s a look at the top 20 running backs versus their preseason rank:

The biggest takeaways here are Justin Forsett, Lamar Miller, Jeremy Hill, C.J. Anderson, Mark Ingram, Joique Bell and Chris Ivory. It’s easy to ignore Matt Asiata, who’s numbers were largely inflated by two separate games where he scored three touchdowns. The aforementioned running backs were all ranked outside of the top 25 in the preseason and finished the season in the top 20. This is why that old adage says that fantasy drafts are in the middle rounds. These running backs were either mid to late round picks or waiver wire pick ups.

Running backs are inherently more susceptible to injury due to the nature of the position. They are also more susceptible to falling victim to being vultured at the goal line (Chris Polk, anyone?). Wide receivers and top tier tight ends have more consistency and usually are not brutally hit by enormous linemen whenever they touch the ball. Outside of the top five running backs, the most value to be found is in later rounds for the position. This is why the ‘Zero RB Theory’ suggests loading up on studs who catch the ball before chasing a stud that runs the ball. Though the 2014 season is not yet a distant memory, it’s never to early too prepare for 2015. Start with the ‘Zero RB Theory’ when you begin your research. It just might lead you to a fantasy super bowl next season.

Feel free to hit me up anytime to talk all things fantasy @JerseyJen22!