Jack Delaney takes us through Marcus Mariota’s possible 2015 fantasy value.
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Marcus Mariota’s 2015 fantasy football value will depend on which team selects him in the 2015 NFL Draft.
That may seem like an overly simplified statement, but it’s not. Obviously, finding himself as a quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles may be just a little more favorable than finding himself as the starting quarterback for the New York Jets. The St. Louis Rams have an interesting and young offense that could make Mariota successful, but could Tampa Bay be fooling us all? Could Mariota actually be Lovie Smith’s guy?
The landing spot for Mariota can be the difference between a top-10 performance, and not even cracking the top-20 fantasy football quarterbacks in 2015.
Strengths
Mariota’s stats look more like a few seasons of Madden than a college career. During 2012-2014, Mariota totaled 10,796 passing yards, 105 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 2,237 rushing yards and 29 rushing touchdowns.
As a dual-threat quarterback, the former Ducks’ starter is difficult to contain. He increased his rushing touchdowns from five in 2012 to fifteen in 2014, and he maintained a minimum of 715 or more rushing yards in all three seasons for Oregon.
While Mariota doesn’t own the same physical build as Cam Newton, at 6-foot-4 he does possess the height that lends itself to success in the NFL. Now, there is a debate that hand size is actually more important than height, and it makes sense that taller players normally have bigger hands. Either way, Mariota had some of the biggest mitts at the 2015 NFL Combine, and was one of the tallest quarterbacks.
Aside from what he did on the field, Mariota has been praised for his work ethic and humble nature. Similar to Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston’s presence on a team may provide distractions and off-the-field issues. If the Ducks’ quarterback stays glued to his playbook and is able to take constructive criticism, he could develop into the starting quarterback a franchise needs.
Weaknesses
We all saw Mariota burn Winston in the 40-yard dash at the 2015 NFL Combine, but we already knew that he’s fast. The major concerns behind Mariota generally regard what he can do with his arm.
If he’s in a jam, he will sometimes throw across his body or look to take off on the ground. That won’t lend itself to success in the NFL, and he will need to learn to look past his first read. Similarly to other dual-threat quarterbacks, there is a perception that Mariota may be inclined to take unnecessary hits because of his inclination to scramble, and that is a major cause for concern.
Another knock on Mariota is that he is too much of a system player. The Ducks’ offense helped simplify Mariota’s choices, so he needs to prove that he has the ability to drop back and look for his receivers down the field.
Projected Rounds for Mariota
As many of you know, Mariota played for Chip Kelly in 2012. If the Philadelphia Eagles were to jump in the draft to select him, his weaknesses could be well hidden with Kelly. It won’t matter if he can or can’t play outside of a system, because Kelly knows how to showcase Mariota’s abilities. With the epic trade of LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills, it certainly looks like the Philadelphia Eagles have something up their sleeve.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the first pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, and it seems like Winston is a lock as the first-overall player drafted. If the Eagles do not trade up, the most likely landing spot for Mariota appears to be the St. Louis Rams. This is where Mariota will have to prove he is not a system player, and similar to Derek Carr’s first year, there will be some bumps and bruises. There’s always a chance he could slip further down the board, but I don’t think Mariota will make it past the 10th pick in Round 1.
With the Buccaneers or Rams, Mariota could potentially barely crack the top-20 fantasy football quarterbacks for 2015, or just miss out by a few spots. With the Eagles, however, he has the potential to be a top-15 candidate, and maybe even better.
At least from what I see, most fantasy football players are skeptical of Mariota’s potential success in the NFL. He will most likely start the season on most fantasy benches as a backup, but he could quickly become a starter. Some of your league members may scoff if you draft him, but don’t let that affect your decision.
For most drafts, I think Mariota will start going off the board in Round 10. For every rookie season like RG3’s, there are plenty of busts to be found alongside, but don’t completely discount Mariota during your 2015 fantasy draft if he ends up in Philadelphia.
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Jack Delaney is a contributor at So Called Fantasy Experts. You can follow him on Twitter @YourFFCoach.
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