Davante Adams could be primed for a big year in Green Bay
During OTAs last week, Green Bay Packers quarterback and reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers spent time gushing to reporters about one of his receivers. When taking a quick glance at the Packers’ roster, one might think he was speaking about Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb, who are each coming off monster campaigns. Or maybe it was rookie receiver Ty Montgomery, who Green Bay drafted in the third round of this year’s NFL Draft. However, when Rodgers said “In my mind, he has humongous upside — and he’s starting to reach that upside,” he was actually talking about second-year receiver Davante Adams.
Adams was drafted in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft out of Fresno State and was originally viewed as the Packers’ the No. 4 wide receiver behind Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Jarrett Boykin. However, with Boykin struggling early in the season, the Packers turned the starting No. 3 WR role over to Adams in Week 5. In his first official start, Adams scored his first NFL touchdown in a Packers rout of the Vikings. Following that Thursday night game, Adams has not looked back and has been entrenched in the starting lineup alongside Nelson and Cobb ever since.
Looking ahead to 2015, with Adams set to be a starter for the entire season, what does this mean for his fantasy value? Well, first off, the Packers play in a very pass-happy offense (1st in total offense and 8th in passing offense in 2014) with Rodgers at the helm. This alone is a good sign for Adams, but after monster years from Nelson (98 rec, 1,519 yards, & 13 TD) and Cobb (91 rec, 1,287 yards, & 12 TD) in 2014, defenses will look to shut both of them down going into 2015. The good news is that when defenses focused on Nelson and Cobb last season, Adams revealed that he could carry the load offensively. In two such games (11/30 vs New England and 1/11 vs Dallas) Adams averaged 11 targets, 6.5 catches, 119 yards and 0.5 TD. This is one area where Rodgers continues to gush about Adams, saying “last year when he went through stretches where he didn’t catch the ball, has a huge game against New England, then goes through stretches again where he doesn’t get a lot of balls thrown his way, then has a big game against Dallas. That’s all about approach and focus. And you can’t teach that.”
However, the downside is that those were the two best games of Adams’ career and, if you remove those games from his season, Adams finished the year with only 33 catches for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns (16 games including playoffs). At first glance, those numbers may seem underwhelming, but put them in perspective. For one, Adams’ best games came against two of the better defensive teams in football last year (total defense rankings: New England – 8th; Dallas – 15th). Second, Green Bay does a great job of spreading the ball around in their offense (they need to with two Pro Bowl receivers in Nelson and Cobb plus Eddie Lacy at running back). Due to that, Adams should see a larger share this season after proving himself as a rookie and having another offseason to work with Rodgers and head Coach Mike McCarthy.
Another factor helping Adams for 2015 is the Green Bay’s lack of a true playmaking tight end. Even though Richard Rodgers showed promise towards the end of last season, the Packers have struggled to replace the playmaking abilities of Jermichael Finley. Due to this, the Pack has used Cobb as the main weapon in the slot and over the middle which has allowed Adams to fill in the other receiver spot open across from Nelson. This setup fits perfectly with Adams’ skill set and body type (6’1” and 215 pounds), fitting the mold of a typical outside NFL receiver.
For those reasons, it seems like Adams is set to have a breakout year in 2015. As with other players on loaded rosters, Adams will be susceptible to peaks and valleys in his production depending on the matchup. But, if the peaks are what they were against New England and Dallas last year, it may just be worth it. Currently, Adams has an ADP of 49th and he’ll likely be selected in the mid-to-late rounds in most fantasy drafts. In addition, if Nelson or Cobb were forced to miss time due to injury, Adams would immediately become a must-own and a solid WR2 option for your squad.
Overall, it’s easy to see what Rodgers was talking about last week and why the Packers are excited heading into 2015. Adams has already exhibited the ability to take advantage of coverages shifted elsewhere and provide run-after-the-catch ability like a big-time playmaker. He’ll also have a year of NFL experience under his belt and another offseason to get more comfortable in the offense. If Adams is able to make the leap that many are expecting, the Packers season, along with your fantasy squad, will have “humongous upside” in 2015.
Brad Behrens is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brad, check out his archive or follow him @_BradBehrens.
