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2015 Fantasy Football Impact Rookies (Part One)

It's a toss-up as to whether Marcus Mariota (left) or Jameis Winston (right) will have the better fantasy season

It’s a toss-up as to whether Marcus Mariota (left) or Jameis Winston (right) will have the better fantasy season

In Part One of this series, we break down the rookies primed to make the biggest fantasy impact in 2015. Tune in for Part Two as we take a look at some of the deeper rookie finds and their outlooks.

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Quarterback

Whether you play in a re-draft league or dynasty, rookie quarterbacks should be drafted for nothing more than backup or bye week fill-in purposes. While there is the occasional exception (see: Andrew Luck), the current QB landscape is simply too deep to rely on a rookie, and historically too unpredictable to project which one will emerge and when.

Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay) – Winston has all of the traits teams look for in a pocket passer: football IQ, field vision, accuracy, anticipation and touch. Some off-field issues have raised fair questions about his maturity, but the Bucs liked him enough to make him the first overall pick. With solid weapons in Tampa Bay, Winston is a safe bet to return QB2 value as a rookie at the head of his position class.

Marcus Mariota (Tennessee) – Mariota’s rushing ability is what separates him from Winston, but Winston has a head start in terms of operating a pro-style offense. Mariota comes from an Oregon offense that never burdened him with things like calling a huddle or an audible, or even lining up under center. So there will be a learning curve, for sure. But according to reports coming out of Tennessee’s offseason camp, Mariota has handled the transition glowingly and taken command of the Titans’ offense. At the end of the day, it’s a virtual toss-up between the top two rookie QBs (137 vs. 143 ADP), just don’t go into the season with either one as your starter.

Running Back

Running back is easily the deepest skill position in this year’s draft class, and these six are just the tip of the iceberg. In Part Two of this series, we’ll look at the deeper stashes.

Melvin Gordon (San Diego) – Gordon’s 2014 rushing campaign at Wisconsin (2,587 yds, 29 TDs) turned the record books upside down. He looked downright electric, blowing through defenses on a weekly basis. Gordon now replaces Ryan Mathews in sunny San Diego, where he’ll be the lime wedge to Philip Rivers’ Corona. Pencil him in for 1,100+ rushing yards and 6-8 TDs. For those dynasty leaguers holding the No. 1 pick, don’t mess around and get cute.

Todd Gurley (St. Louis Rams) – Thanks to advances in modern medicine, athletes can recover from torn ACLs more successfully than ever before. Still, there are no guarantees that Gurley will return to the level that saw him rush for 36 TDs and average 6.4 YPC across 30 games at Georgia. Plus, it’s possible, or even likely, that he’ll begin the season on the PUP list. But at 6-1, 222 pounds with soft hands, he certainly fits the profile of a feature NFL back. Gurley’s current ADP is in the late-RB2 territory, ahead of guys like Latavius Murray and Ryan Mathews. I’d rather pass if that’s still the going rate come August.

Ameer Abdullah (Detroit) – The Nebraska product seems almost too perfect a fit in Detroit, where Matthew Stafford has long favored the screen game. Abdullah not only rushed for 1,600-plus yards each of the last two seasons, he also caught 72 passes over his last three collegiate campaigns, including this gem. A testament to his athleticism, Abdullah had the highest SPARQ rating of any RB in the 2015 draft class with a score in the 95.1 percentile. In short, he is what the Lions hoped they were getting in Reggie Bush.

T.J. Yeldon (Jacksonville) – The 226-pound Yeldon steps right into a feature gig in Jacksonville. Here’s what Greg Cosell, one of the more widely respected NFL analysts, said about the rookie, “Yeldon has a running style and mentality well suited to the NFL, with his intuitive feel to attack downhill with conviction and his ability to work effectively between the tackles. He’s laterally quicker and a more explosive inside runner than Gordon.” Yeldon dealt with some nagging injuries throughout his career at Alabama, yet he continued to produce. There’s a lot to like here.

David Cobb (Tennessee) – Another favorite of Cosell’s, Cobb doesn’t leave many yards on the field, as his 1,626 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 13 scores at Minnesota in 2014 indicate. His only impediment in Tennessee is an incumbent who averaged 3.7 YPC as a rookie and failed to establish himself, much less earn the trust of the coaching staff. The odds are favorable Cobb will eventually wind up with the majority of the backfield touches over Bishop Sankey, it’s just a matter of what that will translate to on a team coming off a 2-14 season. Mariota’s threat as a runner should open up some lanes in the read option.

Tevin Coleman (Atlanta) – He’ll have an impact in his first year, it just won’t be as the three-down workhorse which seems to be the popular sentiment since he was scooped up by Atlanta in the third round. A timeshare is likely for 2015, although his keeper/dynasty ceiling is higher. Coleman logged 270 carries at Indiana last season en route to 2,036 yards and unanimous All-American recognition. An upright runner not known for breaking tackles, he’ll need to prove he has the instincts to create on his own at the next level.

Wide Receiver

The rookie wide receiver group features a half-dozen or so potential fantasy starters, but the dropoff after that is relatively steep.

Amari Cooper (Oakland) – The list of stud SEC receivers who have gone on to enjoy productive NFL careers is a lengthy one. Cooper simply could not be covered by SEC defenses in 2014, finishing with a ridiculous 124 catches for 1,727 yards and 16 TDs. A game-breaker in every sense, the occasional drop was about the only red flag facing Cooper as a draft prospect. But the Raiders snagged him at No. 4 overall, and it’s not like they have many other options in the passing game. Second-year QB Derek Carr says the “sky’s the limit” for his new No. 1 target.

Kevin White (Chicago) – You could certainly make the argument that White belongs in the top spot. However, there’s just no history of any West Virginia wide receiver making a significant impact at the next level. Granted, that doesn’t mean White won’t be the first, but he will have a learning curve following one breakout season (109-1,447) in the Mountaineers’ “air raid” offense. Still, the opportunity is there for immediate production in Chicago as he steps into Brandon Marshall’s old spot with defenses rolling coverage toward Alshon Jeffery.

DeVante Parker (Miami) – Barring a setback, Parker will be recovered from foot surgery in time for Week 1. The chief concerns are how much preseason work he gets in before then, and how much chemistry he can build with Ryan Tannehill on the practice field. Odell Beckham Jr. shrugged off such concerns last year after missing the first month of his rookie season, but then again ODB is the only player in NFL history to do what he just did. Still, in terms of pure talent, the former Louisville wideout is a top-three WR prospect of this draft class and is currently sitting at a 140 ADP. For someone of his skill set, that’s great value.

Nelson Agholor (Philadelphia) – The USC-by-way-of-Nigeria product couldn’t have landed in a much better spot than Philadelphia, where he instantly becomes the prime candidate to step into Jeremy Maclin’s spot in a high-octane offense. Second-year wideout Jordan Matthews continued to run primarily out of the slot during spring camps while Agholor consistently turned heads. Intangible-wise, he is well spoken, humble and fits coach Chip Kelly’s “growth mindset.” At the absolute minimum, Agholor is flex-worthy.

Breshad Perriman (Baltimore) – Like the rest of the receivers on this list, Perriman steps into a promising situation. The Ravens needed a deep threat after Torrey Smith signed with San Francisco, so enter Perriman, who averaged north of 20 yards per catch in each of his last two seasons at UCF. Drops were a concern, and the No. 26 overall pick let more than a couple of balls hit the ground during offseason workouts, but the talent is there. In fact, the aforementioned Cosell put Perriman in his top WR tier right alongside Cooper and White.

Dorial Green-Beckham (Tennessee) – He’s raw, but Tennessee has an opening at receiver and a shiny new QB to grow with in Mariota. The Calvin Johnson comparisons feel a bit over the top for a 22-year-old kid who didn’t play football last year. But Green-Beckham’s measurables and pedigree (2011 consensus high school player of the year) are certainly intriguing. DGB is worth a first-round pick in dynasty formats, but expectations should be tempered for re-draft leagues.

Jaelen Strong (Houston) – A 6’3, 217-lb presence, Strong walks into a likely starter’s role in Houston. Across two years at Arizona State, he hauled in 157 passes for 2,287 yards and 17 scores before entering the draft early. The problem, of course, is the Texans’ QB situation. He’s not a blazer but, true to his surname, Strong is a weapon in the red-zone given his penchant for winning jump balls, contested catches and back-shoulder routes.

Tight End

Historically, even the elite tight ends have put up pedestrian numbers in their rookie seasons. The learning curve has gotten even steeper in recent years as more and more college offenses run some form of the spread that requires little, if any, in-line blocking by the TE. Among some recent examples, Richard Rodgers was flexed out almost exclusively in Cal’s spread offense; ditto Jace Amaro who played the Joker role in Texas Tech’s wide-open scheme; and Zach Ertz’s anticipated breakout 2014 season in Philadelphia never quite materialized because he was still developing as a blocker.

Maxx Williams (Baltimore) – Williams is head-and-shoulders above the other TEs in the 2015 draft class, and he finds himself in a great situation in Baltimore. Renowned “quarterback whisperer” Marc Trestman is now calling the shots for the Ravens offense, and there is a gaping hole at tight end with Dennis Pitta’s future in doubt and Owen Daniels now in Denver. Williams is certainly an attractive option in dynasty and keeper formats, but he’s waiver wire fodder in re-draft leagues.

Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.

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