With an average at best QB situation, DeSean Jackson’s outlook doesn’t match his ranking
After a 2014 season that saw names like Odell Beckham shoot from a no name to a top 3 WR, it’s only natural to wonder if there are certain receivers that are going to be busts this year relative to their draft position. The position is fairly deep with top tier talent, so making the wrong decision early on can haunt your draft.
Of course to avoid that type of mistake, we’d want to look at various factors including offseason transitions and past performance. While it may be fun for some to do this all on their own, we’ve taken the liberty to ask five of the top experts from our accuracy competition to help by sharing their top bust picks.
Q: What WR in our consensus top 24 should fantasy owners fear the most as a bust candidate?
DeSean Jackson (WAS)
Consensus WR Rank: #19
“More often than not the distinguishing ‘bust’ factor among the top receivers is more about the quality of play from their quarterback and less about the caliber of each player. Considering Robert Griffin III’s lack of development and an expected increase in targets for Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson arguably has the most contentious spot among the top 24. His weekly volatility aside, he’s still safely within the top 30, but without improved play from Griffin, his upside is capped. I have similar concerns with Sammy Watkins – great talent, but hamstrung by quarterback quality in what should be a run-heavy offense.”
– Bob Henry (FootballGuys)
“All signs point towards a decline for DeSean Jackson. In 2014 he led the league with 13 catches of 40+ yards, which inflated his WR16 finish despite a career-low 6.3 targets per game. His six touchdowns might seem low, but 0.4 touchdowns per game tracks closely with his career 0.44 touchdowns per game. He also no longer benefits from the rushing and return work he received early in his career. Most concerning is Pierre Garçon stealing Jackson’s priority-target, Z-receiver position in Jay Gruden’s offense. Garçon won’t supplant Jackson as Washington’s leading pass-catcher, but their numbers will converge enough to knock Jackson well out of WR2 consideration.”
– Austin Lee (FootballGuys)
Brandon Marshall (NYJ)
Consensus WR Rank: #21
“I tend to be in-line with most of the Top 24, but currently have Brandon Marshall ranked 27th which is tied for “worst” rank for him among the Pros. I believe most people are underestimating the hit he’s taking by going to the Jets. While his targets should stay the same, he is going to see even more uncatchable passes to go along with more double coverage (especially in the red zone). If anything, his presence should benefit Eric Decker and could even help TE Jace Amaro break out with a 50+ catch season.”
– Sean Koerner (STATS)
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)
Consensus WR Rank: #4
“Beckham Jr. may wind up finishing in the top 24, but he is going in the first round of some fantasy drafts and I think he could struggle to return that kind of value. I’m still willing to take him middle-to-late second round, because clearly the talent is there. But with the possible return of Victor Cruz, defenses focusing on him more and Eli Manning as his QB, I’m not as excited as some.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
A.J. Green (CIN)
Consensus WR Rank: #8
“I believe the Cincinnati Bengals’ wide receiver will be a fantasy bust this season. Green’s value was already down in 2014 due to lack of chemistry with quarterback Andy Dalton. The Bengals’ run game thrived with a combination of rookie running back Jeremy Hill and second-year back Giovani Bernard. Look for the Bengals to continue using a heavier dose of the ground attack while Green’s targets continue to decrease in 2015.”
– Rachel Wold (eDraft)
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Thank you to the experts for naming their top wide receiver busts. For more advice, be sure to follow them on Twitter.
