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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 2

Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 2
With his QB underrated for Week 2, how could Alshon Jeffery be overrated?

With his QB underrated for Week 2, could Alshon Jeffery be overrated?

Every week, there are going to be must-start players who bomb. Subsequently, there are players who will blow up but were under the radar. For this reason, we’ll take a closer look at one overvalued player and one undervalued player per position.

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Last week we were 100% accurate with the six featured overvalued players. Below is the list of featured players with their projected and actual ranks:

Overvalued Proj. Actual
A. Luck QB3 QB11
F. Gore RB15 RB55
A. Jeffery WR11 WR26
J. Graham TE3 TE11
Bengals DST5 DST14
M. Crosby K4 K19

The same can’t be said for predicting undervalued plays:

Undervalued Proj. Actual
E. Manning QB11 QB30
M. Ingram RB16 RB16
V. Jackson WR26 WR47
R. Rodgers TE22 TE26
Bills DST13 DST11
S. Janikowski K28 K30

It may end up being easier to predict a stud having a bad week than a middling player having a better week, but these trends will most likely fluctuate as the season goes on. Eli Manning throwing no touchdown passes and Vincent Jackson not taking advantage of an inactive Mike Evans and a game flow that dictated more passing were surprising to me. Week 1 always has its wrinkles and this year was no different.

This week we will focus on some overhyped players riding the Week 1 high and some undervalued talent who have been written off after a slow start.

I’m using our Week 2 ECR Rankings as a reference.

Quarterbacks

Overvalued: Sam Bradford (QB7 vs DAL)
The pace of play and threat of a better running game than the New York Giants may give Bradford more opportunities at big plays than Manning got, but it’s hardly enough to make him a top 10 play this week ahead of some other more established QBs facing weaker defenses. Dallas held the Giants offense to 289 yards and no touchdowns in the air, breaking a streak of 10 straight games with a receiving touchdown for Manning. Bradford and the Eagles were at their best Monday when they were running the ball, and this may also be their best course of action against Dallas. Dallas was able to contain Odell Beckham Jr., and Jordan Matthews is not Beckham Jr. I undervalued Manning as QB11 last week and he ended up at QB30. Beware.

Undervalued: Jay Cutler (QB25 vs. ARI)
Arizona gave up a league-low 54 yards on the ground in Week 1 and 355 yards in the air to Drew Brees and the Saints. If the Cardinals running defense is as stout again this week, the Bears may be forced to abandon the running game even after their 189-yard performance against Green Bay. Game flow and score may dictate how much Cutler throws in Adam Gase’s offense, but they will most likely find themselves down and forced to throw early and often. The biggest thing going against Cutler putting up good fantasy numbers, yards notwithstanding, is Chicago’s inability to score touchdowns in goal-to-go situations. The numbers may not be prolific this week, but they are going to be better than the 25th best in the league.

Running backs

Overvalued: Jonathan Stewart (RB15 at HOU)
Going off of last week’s numbers should not be a trend, but when this is the newest data to go off of, why not? Houston, in a loss, held Jamaal Charles to 103 total yards, 57 of which were on the ground on 16 carries. Stewart is nowhere near the dual threat Charles is, compiling 25 or more receptions in a season only once in his eight-year career. If he cannot get the running game going against a Texans defense that was 10th in rushing yards and tied for second in fewest rushing touchdowns, fantasy owners will be in for a disappointing week.

Undervalued: Shane Vereen (RB36 at ATL)
Monday against Atlanta, Philadelphia running backs had rushing slash lines of 16/65/2 but receiving slash lines of 14/111/1 coming on 18 targets. This meant that running backs were more featured as receivers than rushers, which bodes well for last season’s fifth leading receiver out of the backfield. Giants lead back Rashad Jennings led the team with 13 touches, but no catches. Vereen was a dual threat, running the ball three times but also catching four balls and leading the team with 46 receiving yards. If New York wants to expose this deficiency in the Falcons’ defense, they have the guy to do it. Vereen’s every-down usage will always hinge on game flow and game plan, but he always finds a way to be relevant in the air.

Wide Receivers

Overvalued:  Alshon Jeffery (WR12 vs. ARI)
*Editor’s note: Jeffery is currently listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
While I can see Cutler having a better game than QB25, I can’t put Jeffery in my top 12 this week against that Cardinals secondary. Jeffery’s health is in question and there is still no one opposite of him that will demand any attention which means Patrick Peterson will be on him and Tyrann Mathieu will be right there to clean it up. “But how does Cutler end up better than a QB25 this week if his top receiver is held in check?” Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett are why. Both caught over 90 balls last season and had great games in Week 1 as Cutler continues to use his underneath weapons efficiently.

Undervalued: Donte Moncrief (WR36 vs NYJ)
If T.Y. Hilton plays, Andre Johnson should not be ranked ahead of Moncrief. If Hilton is out, Johnson should DEFINITELY not be ranked ahead of Moncrief. Moncrief will be next man up if Hilton is out with a knee injury on Monday night and depending on who ends up on “Revis Island” between he and Johnson will dictate who will have the bigger day. I can see Johnson drawing Revis based on past performance, which makes Moncrief a sneaky play if you can afford to wait on the Hilton news. Moncrief had the second most catches, yards, and targets for Indianapolis last Sunday, behind Hilton, while Johnson looked old and almost like an afterthought behind Hilton, Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett. Moncrief’s rise up the weekly rankings starts this week.

Tight Ends

Overvalued: Greg Olsen (TE4 at HOU)
Carolina beat a bad Jacksonville team in Week 1 with good defense but a very pedestrian offense, mustering one offensive score from Cam Newton to Jerricho Cotchery. With Kelvin Benjamin out, Devin Funchess and Jonathan Stewart injured, conventional wisdom says Greg Olsen should be a target machine, yet he only ended up with three last week as Newton spread the ball around (18 completions to nine different receivers). Until someone else steps up, Olsen will be getting extra attention, rendering him ineffective in the passing game.

Undervalued: Jared Cook (TE22 at WAS)
Cook comes off a five-catch, 85-yard game against top ranked Seattle and gets to run routes against a porous Redskins defense that just allowed a four-catch, 73-yard effort to Jordan Cameron of the Dolphins. Cook will outperform his value if the ground game gets going and the vertical game is effective. The Redskins defense is bad.

Kickers

Overvalued: Cody Parkey (K8 vs DAL)
Parkey missed a fairly easy kick on Monday that cost the Eagles the game. Depending on wrinkles in the game plan or Chip Kelly’s genius-at-work thought process, the Eagles may go for it more on fourth down and also may use the two-point conversion option. It depends on whether or not trust has wavered for Kelly.

Undervalued: Dan Carpenter (K18 vs. NE)
Carpenter will lead the Bills in scoring this week. Buffalo was only 5-for-13 on third down last week and rode their defense to a victory with good field position and timely takeaways. In fact, they only got in the red zone one time on Sunday, scoring two of their touchdowns from 51 and 26 yards out. Buffalo is not a high-powered offense. Carpenter has mastered the winds at Ralph Wilson Stadium and should end up better than the 18th highest scoring kicker of the week.

Defense/Special Teams

Overvalued: Seattle Seahawks D/ST (DST8 at GB)
Seattle is not the same without Kam Chancellor. Earl Thomas is still not at 100 percent. Richard Sherman continues to be exposed without a legitimate corner across from him. They gave up over 30 points to the Rams with a third-string running back and a new quarterback who just came back from injury. Now, they go into Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception in a home game since December 2, 2012. Eddie Lacy is better than Benny Cunningham. Randall Cobb and James Jones are better than Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Rodgers has 122 home touchdowns to only 19 interceptions since he became the starter in 2008. Throw in the revenge factor after the NFC Championship game last January, and primetime Sunday night could get ugly for Seattle very quickly.

Undervalued: Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST (DST21 vs SF)
The 49ers are not for real. That’s my hot take of Week 2. They took advantage of a mediocre Vikings squad on Monday Night Football, but coming off a short week and heading to the east coast for an early start will not bode well for San Francisco. The Steelers are coming off extra rest and were embarrassed in New England on opening night. The Steelers should bounce back against a team that still has a lot of work to do.

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Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere

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