Fantasy Impact: Ben Roethlisberger’s Injury

How will Ben Roethlisberger’s injury impact the Steelers’ offense?

With the news that Ben Roethlisberger will miss at least four weeks with an MCL injury, we want to examine the fantasy outlook for the rest of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense. The injury means that with the two suspensions to Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant, the Steelers offense will not be at full strength until at least Week 8 against Cincinnati. While no one doubts the “must-start” statuses of Bell and Antonio Brown, no one means more to the offense than their signal caller. Case in point, albeit a small sample size, Pittsburgh plugged DeAngelo Williams in for two weeks, and he was the highest scoring running back in that span. Antonio Brown, with no legitimate receiver across from him for the first two weeks, was still the highest scoring fantasy receiver through Weeks 1 and 2.

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These two players had been matchup proof over the last two seasons and three games largely in part to the fact that Roethlisberger had not missed a game since 2012 when he missed three games. In those three games, Steelers’ signal callers combined for 674 yards and one touchdown. In fact, since 2010, Roethlisberger has missed eight starts and in those eight starts, the Steelers’ have combined for 1,488 yards (186 YPG) and a whopping four touchdowns in the air. The stats below are in the “Antonio Brown era,” which is 2010 until now:

Steelers’ passing attack 2010-present

*Three of seven TDs thrown by WRs (Antwan Randle El 2, Brown 1)

No surprises there as the ball moves better with a legitimate quarterback behind center, and no time more prolific than since the start of the 2013 season, with the addition of Bell and the emergence of Brown. Now, they will call on reserve quarterback Michael Vick, and there is no doubt the dynamic of the Steelers’ passing attack will change. We will get to see firsthand if Brown and Bell are still match up proof and just how much the loss of “Big Ben” will be for them. Vick was without a job until the end of training camp but has been serviceable as a backup and showed some flashes of brilliance since he was reinstated back into the league in 2009. No one is doubting his raw talent and ability to perform. But backups are backups for a reason and the question remains how much of the offense will they be able to run through him and how much that will affect Brown and Bell. Vick went 5-for-6 with 38 yards and was sacked twice in relief.

Their next four games include a short week home game against Baltimore (0-3), followed by an extended break from Thursday to the following Monday as they travel to San Diego (1-2). They return home to host the undefeated Cardinals (3-0) before traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to play Kansas City (1-2). Vick has played these four teams 14 times with varying results since 2001:

For a preview of what exactly to expect moving forward until Roethlisberger returns, we will explore the next four matchups.

Week 4: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Short week here for the Steelers as they host AFC North archrival Baltimore who is desperate for their first win of the season. Baltimore just got torched by the Oakland and Cincinnati passing games in back-to-back weeks, giving up 734 yards and six touchdowns in the air. This includes three different 100-yard games for receivers, including A.J. Green’s 10-227-2 line just three days ago. Whether or not Vick can keep that trend going with Brown, Bell, etc. is yet to be seen. Baltimore is in must-win mode this week in what will be a very intriguing Thursday night match up.

Week 5: Pittsburgh at San Diego

Pittsburgh travels to the West Coast for a Monday night primetime game against the Chargers. San Diego is 1-2 but not because of their pass defense. They have held Green, Golden Tate, Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace and Tyler Eifert all under 50 yards this season. In fact, only one player has more than 50 yards receiving against them this year, and that’s Lions tight end, Eric Ebron. Matthew Stafford and Andy Dalton have prospered against other defenses and are much more established in their offensive game plans than Vick is, which makes this matchup interesting for the Steelers.

Week 6: Arizona at Pittsburgh

Arizona may very well be 5-0 at this point and are playing some of the best defense in NFL right now. They have given up only two passing touchdowns to seven interceptions, including four last Sunday, two of which were returned for touchdowns. If the Steelers fall behind early or are not able to establish the running game, Cardinals defenders will be licking their chops expecting the pass. As the chart above showed, Vick has never thrown a touchdown pass against the Cardinals and that trend may continue in Week 6.

Week 7: Pittsburgh at Kansas City

The fourth game during this stretch will be at Arrowhead Stadium, another very tough place to play. However, the Chiefs’ passing defense has been very generous so far this season, surrendering 831 yards and 10 passing touchdowns with only two picks. Eight of these scores, however, came against Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, so that sample size will be a matter of a larger trend or exceptions by Week 7. Still, there is a chance Pittsburgh can capitalize on the weaker Chiefs’ secondary. By now, either Vick has gotten a grasp of the offense, Landry Jones is under center or Roethlisberger will have made a quick recovery. Last season, Brown went for 7/72/1 in Week 16 against the Chiefs.

Fantasy Impact

The timetable for Roethlisberger’s return from the MCL sprain has fluctuated between four and six weeks. If he’s gone longer than anticipated, the Steelers’ offense may suffer, especially when the weather turns. This is the relatively “easy” portion of the schedule, as games against Denver, Seattle, Indianapolis, Cincinnati (twice) and a road game against Baltimore still await them. Advice? Don’t panic. Bell and Brown should be more than serviceable without Roethlisberger, and Heath Miller will most likely get more work as a safety valve. Markus Wheaton will get healthy, and once Bryant returns from his suspension, Vick will have enough weapons around him to keep the offense fantasy relevant. Vick may even become fantasy relevant himself if the workload is there.

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Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere.