After Peyton Manning’s lackluster 2014 finish, should his history of success be ignored?

In fantasy sports, we have a tendency to focus our attention on the most recent memory we have about a player and our perception of that memory. For Peyton Manning, the most recent memory many have is how mightily he struggled down the stretch (including the playoffs) at the end of the 2014 NFL season. Over a five game stretch (including playoffs), Manning averaged only 240 passing yards, 0.8 TD passes and 1.2 interceptions a game.

This has led to various questions about Manning heading into the 2015 season. Will Denver shift more focus to the running game? Can the offensive line protect Manning to keep him healthy and productive? At 39 years old, are his skills on the decline? Let’s take a look at each of these questions…

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Will Denver shift more focus to the running game?

Manning is entering his fourth season as the Broncos’ quarterback. Over the last three years, the Broncos have been in the top 10 in pass attempts every season. They have had the following run-to-pass ratio during that time:

Don’t expect new Broncos Head Coach Gary Kubiak to change that formula and take the ball out of Manning’s hands either. When Kubiak was the head coach for the Houston Texans in 2013, the Texans finished sixth in pass attempts and had a 60.5/39.5 pass-to-run ratio, with the combination of Matt Schaub and Case Keenum at QB. I expect Kubiak to focus a little more on the running game than he did in Houston. However, a balance similar to what the Broncos had in 2012 seems like a reasonable expectation, which will still lead to around 575 passing attempts for Manning in 2015.

Can the offensive line protect Manning to keep him healthy and productive?   

There has been a lot of talk in Denver and the fantasy community about the Denver Broncos’ young offensive line. The recent signing of veteran guard Evan Mathis should help bring some experience, leadership and depth to the group. It also helps to have Manning behind center with his quick recognition of defenses and decision making.  Manning has consistently had low sack totals throughout his career, including a league-low 17 sacks in 2014. In other words, Manning will help protect the offensive line as much as the offensive line will help protect him. He’s also been extremely durable his entire 17-year career, starting all 16 games every season except for 2011.

At 39 years old, are his skills on the decline?  

Looking back at last season before he stumbled in December, Manning was on pace for another huge year. Over the first 12 games, he was averaging 311.4 passing yards, 3.0 TD passes and 0.75 interceptions a game. That put him on pace for numbers just shy of his record-breaking 2013 season where he threw for 55 TDs and 5,477 yards. Plus, Manning still has big playmakers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. While we will probably not see historic numbers from Manning this season, you can likely expect similar numbers to what he put up in 2012 and 2014. In other words, expect around 4,500 passing yards to go along with about 35 TDs.

Manning is currently ranked as the fourth QB by our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) with an ADP around the third or fourth round in fantasy drafts. While Manning probably does not have the upside to end the 2015 season as the top QB, there is a strong probability that he is still in the top five at the end of the season. If he is still available in the fourth round of your draft or if auction bidding stalls on him, don’t be afraid to jump in and grab him. Some might be ready to throw dirt on him and pass him by, but I am not ready to do that based on my most recent memory of his struggles at the end of last season. There is too much history of excellence to ignore.

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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.