Will Andy Dalton be a QB1 the rest of the way?
Recapping the Week 3 installment of 5 Burning Questions, I delved into the smorgasbord of QB injuries and their respective fantasy impacts, as well as some replacement options. The downgrades all panned out as expected for Brandin Cooks (WR33), Terrance Williams (WR94), Calvin Johnson (WR33) and Jason Witten (TE11), while Joseph Randle’s (RB2) uptick in value came to fruition. As for the replacements, Andy Dalton (QB2), Tyrod Taylor (QB4) and Marcus Mariota (QB6) all proved to be viable options who were widely available, although Colin Kaepernick (QB26) face-planted. And the call to move Cam Newton (QB3) and Carson Palmer (QB10) from benches to starting lineups was a good one, but the same could not be said for Ryan Tannehill (QB17).
Elsewhere, it was advised to steer clear of all Eagles players besides Jordan Matthews, who led the team in catches (six), targets (eight) and receiving yards (49) but finished as only the WR49. Ryan Mathews was Philadelphia’s only fantasy star with a RB11 finish, although the article was posted with the expectation that DeMarco Murray would play. … Keeping David Johnson (RB43) on the bench was a good call, and it was also recommended to downgrade Jeremy Hill, however 26 snaps and a RB58 finish was hardly what I envisioned.
Get Start/Sit & Waiver Advice with My Playbook 
On to Week 4 and the quarter-pole of the fantasy regular season:
The Megatron Conundrum
Will the real Calvin Johnson please stand up? Already standing? Oh, well, ok then.
Entering Week 4, Johnson is 27th among wide receivers in fantasy points. His 33 targets are eighth-most among receivers, but that has yielded just 26 fantasy points in standard leagues. For comparison’s sake, among the top-10 WRs in targets, the next-lowest point total belongs to Demaryius Thomas with 34. At this point last season, Johnson was fourth in fantasy scoring among WRs with 45 points on, ironically, the exact same number of targets. That’s a dropoff of nearly half the production for the 30-year-old.
So, what’s behind the decline? In short, a lot. Johnson has been targeted only once beyond 20 yards so far this season. He finished last year with 30 deep targets, an average of nearly two per game. In fact, two-thirds of his targets this year have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. A big reason for that has been a Lions offensive line that has allowed a league-high 56 pressures on a dinged up Matthew Stafford, according to Pro Football Focus. With that much heat, it’s no wonder the vertical passing game has been nonexistent.
Granted, many saw the writing on the wall for Johnson entering the 2015 campaign. But while he hasn’t gotten much help from his offensive teammates, he can still make catches like this one he snagged over Aqib Talib in Week 3. And at last check, he’s still 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds.
WEEK 4 OUTLOOK
This week, the Lions travel to CenturyLink Field to face a Seattle defense that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards (186 YPG) and boasts PFF’s second-rated pass rush. If you (like me) are a Megatron owner looking to sell, you won’t get much value in return right now. So wait until that next big game happens, and it will, then go ahead and put him on the block.
The Marshawn Lynch contingency
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported earlier this week that Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is “50-50” to suit up this week, but with Seattle taking on Detroit on Monday Night Football, that’s simply not enough for even optimistic Lynch owners to hang their hats on. It’s in Seattle’s best interest to remain coy, and coach Pete Carroll even said he plans to take all week to figure out Beast Mode’s status. Considering Lynch was a game-time call last week with a calf injury, then left after six touches with a hamstring injury, at this point we have to assume he won’t be in action.
So what’s the play, you ask? Adding backup Thomas Rawls feels like the obvious move after he rushed for 104 yards on 16 carries in place of Lynch against the Bears in Week 3, becoming the first Seahawks back besides Lynch to crack a hundred yards since 2012. However, Rawls is still owned in less than 30 percent of ESPN leagues, which is almost criminal. Presumably, folks are either holding out hope for Lynch or still viewing 34-year-old Fred Jackson as Lynch’s handcuff. But if you watched Rawls run with conviction this past week – he’s nicknamed “\”The Train” – you know that is flawed thinking.
Rawls will indeed start if Lynch can’t go, as reported by the Seattle Times. Russell Wilson called Rawls “lights out,” and Carroll practically gushed over the undrafted rookie, saying, “At the line of scrimmage, he’s got a nice wiggle and all that, but he’s got an attitude that he wants to let you know he’s coming, and that’s what I get excited about.”
WEEK 4 OUTLOOK
Hyperbole aside, Rawls is a nice RB2 option against Detroit if you are hurting at running back or are among the Lynch owners who have yet to make the pickup. If someone in your league already beat you to Rawls, Ronnie Hillman (vs. Minnesota) and Lance Dunbar (at New Orleans) are two alternative dart throws still available in more than half of ESPN leagues, and both are inside the top-36 of this week’s expert consensus rankings.
Is Andy Dalton really a QB1 the rest of the way?
We’re one-quarter of the way through the fantasy regular season and the third-ranked QB is available in 30 percent of leagues and still on the bench in more than half. I get the reservation among the fantasy community, I do, but Dalton has actually gone five straight games with multiple passing TDs dating back to last season. And, oh yeah, he also posted a top-three finish among fantasy QBs as recently as 2013.
This year, with weapons such as tight end Tyler Eifert and running back Giovani Bernard performing alongside one of the game’s elite receivers in A.J. Green, Dalton has already put 2014’s clunker in the rearview mirror. He has three touchdowns on passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air, and his 57.1-percent accuracy mark on deep throws is second only to Ben Roethlisberger among qualifying passers, per PFF. He also boasts a ridiculous 140.0 QB rating against the blitz. In other words, he should have been started in more than 17 percent of lineups against Baltimore last week.
WEEK 4 OUTOOK
This week, look for Dalton to continue to air it out against a Kansas City defense that has been strong against the run but ranks dead-last against opposing fantasy QBs. And while some regression to the mean is to be expected over the course of the season, at this point I’d be surprised if Dalton did not finish as a back-end QB1 when all is said and done. Of course, Bengals fans will just take a playoff win, but that’s another matter.
How about Tyrod Taylor?
Similar to Dalton, Tyrod Taylor was a 2011 draft pick who currently ranks as a top-five fantasy QB, yet he was started in only 19 percent of leagues last week and was available in more than half. And despite an inviting matchup at home against the Giants in Week 4, he is still riding the pine in half of ESPN’s fantasy lineups.
Also like Dalton, Taylor has had success with the deep ball with four touchdown passes on attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield, tops among all QBs. Want to bring the heat against Taylor? No problem, his 83.3-percent accuracy rate under pressure trails only Philip Rivers, and Taylor has been pressured on 42.1 percent of his dropbacks, per PFF. What sets Taylor apart is his ability to use his legs to avoid pressure and make plays, as “T Mobile” is averaging 32 YPG on the ground with a rushing score to boot.
WEEK 4 OUTLOOK
Taylor checks in with an ECR as the QB9 this week against the Giants, and I’m on board with that even minus Sammy Watkins. Sometimes, a change of scenery is all a player needs, and Taylor appears at home in Buffalo after biding his time developing behind Joe Flacco for his first four pro seasons in Baltimore.
Given the number of injuries and disappointing performances so far among several of the league’s notable quarterbacks, Taylor is firmly in the QB1 conversation for the rest of the season. At the very least, if he’s still available in your league or currently on your bench, consider streaming.
Better pickup: Travis Benjamin or Rishard Matthews?
First thing’s first. If you find yourself in the unenviable position of relying on either one of these guys for fantasy points this week, you’re either in a deep league or you own someone like Dez Bryant or Davante Adams, or both. But with Cleveland’s Travis Benjamin ranking sixth among WRs in fantasy points and Miami’s Rishard Matthews tied for ninth entering Week 4, it’s a discussion that is certainly warranted.
Benjamin, a fourth-year pro out of Miami (FL) who stands at 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds, has found pay dirt four times through three games. And after seeing a combined seven targets in the Browns’ first two games, Benjamin had 10 targets against Oakland this past week. Granted, he only caught four of them – such is life when Josh McCown is your quarterback. Still, it illustrates Benjamin’s boom-or-bust nature, which to this point has been all boom as he is averaging 25 yards per catch.
Matthews, also a fourth-year pro out of Nevada at six feet tall and 217 pounds, is coming off back-to-back 100-yard receiving games and paces the Dolphins’ receiving corps. He has scored three times and, like Benjamin, has reached double-digit fantasy points in each week. Two areas where Matthews has the advantage over Benjamin are his volume (22 targets to 17) and catch rate (72.7 percent to 58.8). The long-term concern, however, is the increasing weekly integration of Dolphins’ first-round receiver DeVante Parker.
WEEK 4 OUTLOOK
In terms of Week 4, Benjamin has PFF’s seventh-best WR-CB matchup grade against Chargers left cornerback Jason Verrett. Matthews, on the other hand, will see Darrelle Revis lined up across from him. This may be a multiple-choice quiz, but I’ll give you a hint: there’s no Verrett Island.
For the rest of the season, however, Matthews appears to be the better option based on having the better QB, a bigger frame, and more consistent target volume. But know that Benjamin and Matthews rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in yards per route run.
Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.
