Should fantasy owners be worried about Odell Beckham Jr.?
How often do you use target numbers to make fantasy football decisions? Targets measure the number of times a quarterback throws to a running back, wide receiver or tight end. Many owners will use this information to make start or sit decisions, determine what players to pick up on the waiver wire or to determine what specific players to focus on in trades. FantasyPros publishes a report that provides data on the most targeted running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends each week. Fantasy football owners are looking for consistency week in and week out in terms of production. Do target numbers alone provide that? The purpose of this column is to dive deeper into the target numbers to better understand what it means. Let us take a different perspective in evaluating Week 4’s top 12 leaders in wide receiver targets.
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| Player | Team | Snaps % | Targets | Target Share % | aDOT | PPO | PPS |
| DeAndre Hopkins | Texans | 96 | 22 | 38 | 19.8 | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| Vincent Jackson | Buccaneers | 96 | 14 | 36 | 10.5 | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| Allen Hurns | Jaguars | 88 | 14 | 34 | 7.7 | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| T.Y. Hilton | Colts | 83 | 13 | 28 | 11.2 | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Jeremy Maclin | Chiefs | 99 | 12 | 29 | 7.5 | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| Demaryius Thomas | Broncos | 75 | 12 | 46 | 8.9 | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| Odell Beckham | Giants | 97 | 12 | 34 | 11.7 | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| Brandon Marshall | Jets | 85 | 11 | 41 | 12.9 | 0.42 | 0.21 |
| Allen Robinson | Jaguars | 99 | 11 | 27 | 18.7 | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| Calvin Johnson | Lions | 96 | 11 | 36 | 12.6 | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| Mike Wallace | Vikings | 76 | 10 | 27 | 8.8 | 0.33 | 0.27 |
Whenever I evaluate target numbers, I have many questions that come into my mind. Did a negative game script or garbage time inflate the production? How many snaps were these players on the field? What are the depths of these targets? What slice of the target share did these players own? It is all about looking beyond the simple number.
Mike Clay, managing editor and director for Pro Football Focus, created a statistic called Average Depth of Target (aDOT). It eliminates the unpredictability of yards after catch or yards per reception. Fantasy Points Per Opportunity (PPO) captures how productive a player was relative to his number of carries and passing routes run. The figure is calculated by taking a player’s total fantasy points and dividing it by his carries plus pass routes run. Fantasy points per snap provides a visualization as to how productive a player was relative to snaps he was actually on the field. It is much easier to have clarity on wide receiver targets when bringing all of these elements together.
Analysis
This gives you an idea of the type of analysis this column will provide in coming weeks. I plan on providing analysis in the future on not only wide receiver targets, but also tight end target and running back touches. I would like to wrap up this week’s column by sharing observations I had while assembling the data.
1. DeAndre Hopkins has the potential to finish as a top-five fantasy wide receiver
He has averaged 15.25 targets over the first four games of the season. Hopkins is on pace for over 240 targets. He has elite play speed, catching ability and overall athletic ability to transcend matchups and the Texans’ quarterback situation. 26% of his total targets through Week 4 have been 20 yards or more according to Pro Football Focus. He will continue to be a solid WR1 for the rest of the season.
2. Allen Robinson is a great buy-low candidate
He has averaged 9.25 targets over the first four games of the season. Robinson’s targets are traveling nearly 19 yards. Quarterback Blake Bortles has attempted the most pass attempts (31) in the league of 20 yards or more through Week 4. Robinson has had two tough matchups against the Patriots and Colts, but will get back on track against the Buccaneers in Week 5. He is a very good WR2 with WR1 upside on any given week.
3. Brandon Marshall was drafted as a WR3, but can finish as a WR1
He has averaged 10.75 targets per game through Week 4. DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald are the only other wide receivers with more fantasy points than Marshall. The Jets are on a bye week, and the team will return in Week 6 with a healthy Eric Decker and Chris Ivory. Marshall will be in a position to improve his PPO in coming weeks with the team’s other offensive weapons being healthy.
4. Jeremy Maclin won’t be able to maintain this target pace
Maclin is the epitome of a sell-high target. He has turned 25 targets into WR2 fantasy production over the last two weeks. How sustainable is that kind of volume? Maclin does have a great matchup against the Bears in Week 5, but he is a player I would look to trade sooner rather than later.
5. Odell Beckham Jr. fantasy owners should not be concerned
Fantasy owners invested a first or early second round draft pick to secure the services of Beckham for the season. He is currently ranked outside of the top 15 fantasy wide receivers. He still has a healthy target share of the Giants passing game that currently ranks 10th in pass attempts. The good news is that the team has some very favorable matchups over the next six weeks leading up to their Week 11 bye. Eli Manning still has a quarterback rating of 100.7 when targeting Beckham through four games. He is also being targeted heavily downfield. Manning and Beckham have only connected on two-of-eight targets of 20 yards or more this season. The duo will be on the same page sooner rather than later.
Conclusion
What are your thoughts on the wide receiver production for you fantasy football teams? You can find my Week 5 rankings to assist you with Start/Sit decisions on FantasyPros. If you have more specific lineup questions, do not hesitate to reach out directly via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a correspondent at FantasyPros. He is also a staff writer at Fantasy Football Locker Room, featured writer at Gridiron Experts, and contributor at RotoViz. Follow him on Twitter @EricNMoody.
