Arizona’s stifling defense could give Russell Wilson plenty of trouble

Last week was…interesting. After a great week where we finished 6-2 in predictions, we came back down to earth in Week 9, finishing with a 3-4-1 mark. Let’s take a look below.

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WEEK 9 RECAP

Recap on overvalued players:

• Andrew Luck finished better than QB14, as his QB8 numbers were good enough to hand the Broncos their first defeat. Bad news for Luck is that while his numbers are turning around, his fantasy season is in jeopardy as he will miss two-to-six weeks with internal organ injuries.
• Chris Ivory scored two touchdowns, but his one yard per carry didn’t do him any favors, finishing as RB12, six shy of his RB6 ranking.
• Randall Cobb had his first good game in over a month, finishing with WR15 numbers, just like the experts said. He scored his first touchdown since Week 3. He also finished with the most targets (12) and yards (99) since that Monday night tilt with Kansas City.
• Jordan Reed salvaged a terrible fantasy week with a garbage time touchdown against the Patriots but did not do enough to salvage his TE6 rank, finishing six spots below it.

Recap on undervalued players:

• Peyton Manning finished just three yards shy of passing Brett Favre on the all-time passing yards list. He also finished a few spots shy of his QB13 ranking, putting up QB18 numbers on the road in Week 9. Next up is a Chiefs’ defense that is much more giving.
• RB6 went to Danny Woodhead, who had another big PPR game, scoring a touchdown and finishing 15 slots better than he was predicted to finish.
• We thought Tavon Austin would have a big multifaceted game for the Rams, but he failed to live up to those WR30 expectations, finishing below that.
• Jesse James, not Heath Miller, had the back-breaking touchdown from the tight end position against the Raiders. Miller did contribute, but not enough to justify that TE10 ranking. Tight ends keep raking on the Raiders, and lately, it’s been the backup tight ends, not the starters.

WEEK 10 PREDICTIONS

Onto Week 10. More injuries, more underperforming, more overperforming and more pulling one’s hair out. We will be keeping this write-up short, so no FanDuel value thoughts below.

Regardless, it’s time to ask who is too high and who is too low. As always, we will be using our weekly ECR (PPR format) as a reference.

Quarterback

Overvalued: Russell Wilson (QB12 vs. ARI)
Wilson’s high ceiling is the only thing that keeps him in the top half of fantasy rankings every week. It would be nice to see that high ceiling at least once this year. He’s the model of boring consistency, throwing exactly one touchdown in seven of eight games, with his only multi-score game coming in Week 2.

He has only topped 20 fantasy points once this year. He has also turned the ball over in six of eight games. If you want a 204-yard, one-touchdown, one-turnover game,

Wilson is a must-start. If you want to win, look elsewhere. Their opponent this week, Arizona, has given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs.

Undervalued: Marcus Mariota (QB23 vs. CAR)
Carolina is still undefeated but has been in several shootouts recently, almost suffering fourth-quarter collapses in their last two games. The Panthers’ defense, as vaunted and attacking as it’s been, has still given up six touchdowns in the air over the last two weeks. Mariota is coming off his second four-touchdown game in his short career, and while the Panthers may win this game, Mariota may still put up good numbers.

Running Back

Overvalued: DeMarco Murray (RB5 vs. MIA)
Miami has given up the third-most fantasy points to running backs, but the backfield situation in Philadelphia is still a two-or-three-headed monster. The Dolphins have given up a total of 10 touchdowns to opposing backfields, surrendering seven on the ground and three in the air, which means there will be plenty of work to go around for Murray, Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews, which may cancel out their value.

Undervalued: Charles Sims (RB30 vs. DAL)
Doug Martin has not been able to run away with the starting job here, giving Sims ample opportunities to find relevant playing time week in and week out. They split their snaps last week 32-31, and Sims continues to be a large part of the passing game.

He may not get the touches needed to be an RB1, but Dallas has given up 52 receptions to running backs at a 9.59 yard-per-reception rate. Sims can be plugged in this week to carry some of the load for a runner on bye.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: Amari Cooper (WR14 at MIN)
Cooper was nursing a quadriceps injury all week, and while he practiced at the end of the week, this is one of those injuries that could flare up at the last minute, or during a game, rendering him ineffective. The game is on the road in Minnesota, where temperatures are going to be falling. Even if active, he may be more of a decoy than a stud, making way for Michael Crabtree.

Undervalued: Devin Funchess (WR58 at TEN)
Cam Newton is getting him involved more in the passing game, culminating in his first career touchdown last week. If Ted Ginn Jr. continues to have issues with drops, Funchess may step into the WR1 role, and Newton will have his big wideout to throw to again, which was missing ever since Kelvin Benjamin was injured.

Tight End

Overvalued: Gary Barnidge (TE7 at PIT)
This is contingent on Johnny Manziel playing this week. Barnidge seems to be an afterthought with Manziel under center. Barnidge is averaging 5.7/89.5/1.25 on 8.75 targets a game with McCown under center.

With Manziel, he is at 3.8/48.8/0.2 on just 6.2 targets a game. This equates to nearly 12 fewer fantasy points per game. Curb your expectations with one of 2015’s best surprises, unless Manziel and Barnidge get on track.

Undervalued: Rhett Ellison (TE47 vs. OAK)
Jeff Cumberland didn’t score, but Kellen Davis did. Heath Miller didn’t score, but Jesse James did.

While one might think Kyle Rudolph will be the next opposing tight end to hit a jackpot, it’s been the secondary option at tight end as of late to torch the Raiders. The Raiders have given up 44/491/9 to tight ends and Minnesota will look to capitalize on this.

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Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere.