Redraft owners should temper expectations of Blake Swihart in 2016
There were several fantasy-relevant catchers in 2015 who seemingly came out of nowhere. Rookie Blake Swihart burst onto the scene for the Red Sox and put up some decent numbers. Francisco Cervelli of the Pirates was suddenly one of the better catchers in baseball after several mediocre (at best) seasons. Even A.J. Pierzynski, everyone’s favorite teammate, was a somewhat effective offensive piece at times.
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Which of these guys can be trusted for 2016? Which should be avoided at all costs and which can be acquired but with tempered expectations? For dynasty and keeper league owners, who is a prime sell-high candidate? Baseball players regress, sometimes for no reason and sometimes for some very predictable ones. In this series of articles, we will be looking at who can be predicted to regress from their 2015 numbers to a much more pedestrian 2016 season.
Blake Swihart – Boston Red Sox
Swihart hit a solid .274/.319/.392 in his rookie year with five home runs and 31 RBI. He only played in 84 games and his future is extremely bright as a well-rounded offensive and defensive backstop. However, owners in redraft leagues should temper their expectations a bit for 2016, as Swihart’s BABIP of .359 tied for the highest among all catchers in baseball with at least 300 plate appearances. He’s still a good option in fantasy, but his 24.9% strikeout rate combined with a low 5.8% walk rate shows that he may be in for some tough stretches in 2016 when his BABIP regresses to the mean. Expect fewer than 10 home runs and an average between .260 and .270.
Francisco Cervelli – Pittsburgh Pirates
Bucs backstop Francisco Cervelli matched rookie Blake Swihart‘s league-high .359 BABIP for catchers. It led to the best season of his career by far, as he produced a .295/.370/.401 line over 130 games. His defense made him valuable as well, and he should return as the starting catcher for the Pirates. He is arbitration-eligible for the final time in 2016. His inflated BABIP and sudden career highs in just about all categories make him a prime regression candidate. Like Swihart, he should still be good, though, and a better option than Swihart in redraft leagues. Cervelli’s owners can expect a batting average in the .270s along with six or seven home runs. In fact, his and Swihart’s numbers may end up quite similar by the end of 2016. Swihart has the higher ceiling, but Cervelli has the higher floor. Draft accordingly.
Nick Hundley – Colorado Rockies
Similar to Cervelli, Rockies catcher Nick Hundley came out of the thin air of Denver to post an impressive .301/.339/.467 line in 103 games. Even with half of his games being played at the launching pad known as Coors’ Field, that’s a great slash line for a catcher. However, Hundley’s .356 BABIP has him in line for some nasty regression in 2016. Combine his luck on batted balls with an almost 20% K rate, and Hundley might not be able to repeat his 2015 success. Like the two catchers above, he should still be a very good option despite his regression. Since he will still play home games at Coors, owners can expect about a dozen home runs to go with a batting average approaching .280, solid production from a usually shallow catcher position.
David A. Marcillo is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMarcillo77.
