Odell Beckham Jr. finally delivered the outing his owners desired
Eric Moody discusses the numbers behind Week 8.
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Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another.
We just wrapped up Week 8 of the NFL season. We were exhilarated with breathtaking performances and unfortunate injuries to key offensive players such as Le’Veon Bell, Steve Smith and Matt Forte.
Six quarterbacks scored over 25 fantasy points. The only running back who finished in the top 10 and was drafted universally as an RB1 was C.J. Anderson. Tavon Austin, Malcolm Floyd and Willie Snead finished as top-10 fantasy wide receivers in Week 8.
Ben Watson and Jacob Tamme finished Week 8 as top-three fantasy tight ends. The goal of this weekly column is to share stats with you in order to provide you clarity and to help you understand how productive certain players can be for your fantasy football team. With that in mind, it’s time to dive into Week 8.
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0.96: Drew Brees’ fantasy points per drop-back in Week 8
Brees completed 40 of 50 passes for 511 yards, seven touchdowns and an interception against the Giants. This was the type of performance that single-handedly won fantasy matchups this week. The Giants’ defense has given up the most passing yards (2,529) and the second-most touchdowns (17) through Week 8 of the season. This is a great defense to exploit in fantasy football if you stream wide receivers.
0.70: Odell Beckham’s fantasy points per opportunity in Week 8
Beckham caught eight of nine targets for 130 yards and three touchdowns against the Saints. This was the type of dominating performance his fantasy owners have been waiting for.
Beckham also generated 2.95 receiving yards per route run according to Pro Football Focus. The Saints’ defense has given up 20 touchdowns and 8.4 yards gained per pass attempt through Week 8 of the season.
3.58: Dion Lewis’ receiving yards per route run in Week 8
Lewis caught six of nine targets for 93 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins. He also gained 19 yards on five rushing attempts. Lewis has become a fantasy difference maker and has RB1 upside any given week.
No other running back with four or more targets was even close to his Pro Football Focus receiving yards per route run in Week 8. The Patriots’ offense scores points on 55.6 percent of their offensive drives. Lewis is an every week starter for your fantasy team.
3.10: Devonta Freeman’s yards after contact per attempt in Week 8
Freeman had 88 yards on 21 carries while catching six of eight targets for 43 yards against the Buccaneers. He is a matchup-proof fantasy RB1 and continues to be leveraged between the tackles and in space. Freeman has scored nine touchdowns this season and is currently getting 71.1 percent of the red zone carries for the Falcons.
5: Alshon Jeffery’s targets of 20 yards or more in Week 8
Jeffery caught 10 of 15 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings. He has only played in three games this season but has been targeted 37 times. If you were able to buy low on Jeffery or had the patience to wait for him to get healthy, you are being rewarded. Quarterback Jay Cutler is frequently targeting him downfield which adds to his fantasy value. He is an elite WR1 who currently has 0.42 fantasy points per opportunity according to Pro Football Focus.
6.46: Demaryius Thomas’ receiving yards per route run in Week 8
Thomas caught eight of 11 targets for 168 yards against the Packers. Quarterback Peyton Manning is great at getting back on the same page with his wide receivers. I was confident Thomas would get back on track following the bye week.
Manning and Thomas took advantage of the injury to Packers cornerback Sam Shields and exploited Casey Hayward on national television. He is still only being targeted on 17.2 percent of the pass attempts in the red zone.
This is a percentage I would like to see increase in coming weeks, but I am curious to see how Vernon Davis will be used in this offense. The only other wide receivers with more targets than Thomas through Week 8 are Keenan Allen, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins.
149.3: Philip Rivers’ quarterback rating when throwing to Malcolm Floyd in Week 8
Floyd and Rivers have played their entire career together with the Chargers. He caught four of six targets for 92 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens. He currently has 16 targets of 20 yards or more on the season according to Pro Football Focus.
The injuries to Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green and Allen will allow Floyd to see additional opportunities in Week 9. He is a great WR3 against a Bears’ defense that is vulnerable to the pass and has given up 16 receiving touchdowns this season.
69.2: Ben Watson’s percentage of routes run lined up as a slot receiver in Week 8
Can Watson be trusted in your fantasy football lineup? I asked myself the same question after his career game against the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. Watson can be trusted as a TE1.
The only other tight end with more fantasy points than him over the last three weeks is Rob Gronkowski. Quarterback Drew Brees targeted Watson nine times out of the slot against the Giants, according to Pro Football Focus.
He caught a touchdown while lined up as a slot receiver and produced 5.15 receiving yards per route run. The irony is that the Saints are using Watson in a similar way as Jimmy Graham in prior years.
10: Andrew Luck’s pass attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield in Week 8
Luck completed 23 of 47 passes for 231 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions against the Panthers. He also rushed for 35 yards on six carries. Luck was under pressure on 38.9 percent of his dropbacks and was sacked two times.
He still finished Week 8 as a top-15 fantasy quarterback and would have tied for seventh without the interceptions. I view him as a great buy-low candidate in fantasy at the moment.
The Colts have a great schedule after their Week 10 bye week. The team plays against the Falcons, Buccaneers, Steelers, Jaguars, Texans, Dolphins and the Titans.
51.9: The percentage of dropbacks Aaron Rodgers was pressured in Week 8
Rodgers completed 14 of 22 passes for 77 yards against the Broncos. He was sacked three times, but the key takeaway is that he had 3.06 seconds to attempt a pass. The Broncos’ secondary was phenomenal in coverage and did not allow the Packers’ receivers to get open.
This is a defense not to be trifled with. The Broncos’ defense faces off against Andrew Luck and the Colts in Week 9. Aaron Rodgers has another tough matchup against the Carolina Panthers in Week 9, but the Packers’ schedule lightens up considerably in Week 10.
Quick Hits from Week 8
- Derek Carr had a quarterback rating of 124.1 when targeting Michael Crabtree against the Jets.
- Dwayne Harris ran 87.5 percent of his routes while lined up as a slot receiver and scored two touchdowns against the Saints.
- Tavon Austin produced 5.65 receiving yards per route run against the 49ers.
- C.J. Anderson gained 64.4 percent of 101 yards on three rushing attempts against the Packers.
- Duke Johnson produced 4.53 receiving yards per route run against the Cardinals. He is the most complete running back on the Browns’ roster and is criminally underused by the coaching staff.
