Eric Gordon owners should hold for now, but he could soon become a candidate to sell
It may be Week 7, but this is our first addition of what will be a weekly article dealing with players you should look to either buy, sell or hold. Playing fantasy sports isn’t that much different from playing the stock market. It’s usually advisable to have some long-term assets that are dependable with little volatility, but in the end, it all comes down to hitting the hot streaks and avoiding the cold ones. Or, it’s like poker – know when to hold ’em, know when to…well, one analogy is probably enough. Essentially, players who are under-performing, are about to see changes in playing time (or position) or are early on in a hot streak, are going to be good players to try and acquire – or “buy low.” To find those whose time may soon be up (players worth selling high), we will look to the opposite end of the spectrum as our buy candidates. Our hold candidates will find themselves somewhere between the two. The idea is simple, but implementing it is a little tougher, so let’s get right into it.
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BUY
Terrence Jones – PF – Houston Rockets
Jones was a late-round pick with an ADP of 88 but looked to have plenty of upside as the starting power forward for the Rockets. He started off the season well, putting up 15 points, six rebounds, one steal and one block in his first game, but suffered an injury to his eye two days later, causing him to miss the next six games. In his second and third games back from injury, Jones scored 23 points twice (while shooting 70 percent from the field), pairing the first with seven rebounds and four blocks and the latter with six rebounds and three blocks. He looked good, in fact, over the few games after that as well, but then hit a pretty rough four-game patch where he scored just 19 total points. During that stretch, Jones lost his starting job to Clint Capela, a promising young center, and it doesn’t appear as if he’ll get it back anytime soon.
It’s a somewhat bleak picture, and if Jones remains with the Rockets, there’s a good chance it will stay that way. The reason he’s here as a “buy” candidate, however, is because rumors are starting to surface about multiple teams showing interest in acquiring Jones. It’s been extremely tough for him to establish any kind of rhythm this season, and one solution may be a change of scenery. It’s not advisable to drop or trade away any definite talent for Jones straight up, but his stock has likely dropped pretty far (if Jones himself hasn’t already been dropped), so it may be pretty easy to make him a part of a 2-for-1 deal. He’s definitely more talented than his numbers currently show, and if he can find his way to a more stable team that’s willing to give him useful playing time, Jones could very easily turn his season around.
Jared Sullinger – PF/C – Boston Celtics
Over his NBA career, Sullinger has averaged 11.3 points and 7.6 rebounds in 25.4 minutes per game. Those numbers are by no means awful, but they don’t exactly stand out either, especially for someone who’s shown glimpses of big potential. Maybe the greatest impediment to his success has been playing for a Celtics’ team that, over the past few years, has been like a revolving door for NBA players both young and old. Boston is still in a rebuilding phase, and while Sullinger could very well stick around as an integral part of that rebuild, it’s been difficult for him to lock down consistent playing time so far.
The good news, however, is that Sullinger has been improving his conditioning and has shown a marked improvement in his ability to finish games. Averaging 10.5 points and 18 rebounds over his last two games, Sullinger has recently received praise from head coach Brad Stevens for his hard work. He’s worth a look if the price is right, and even if things don’t improve, he can still produce useful numbers in enough categories (points, rebounds, steals, three-pointers) to hold low-end value in standard leagues.
HOLD
Anthony Davis – C – New Orleans Pelicans
It might seem unnecessary to tell anyone to hold onto Davis. After all, he did hold the top ADP across most major fantasy sites this season. The “Brow” is also, over his past five games, averaging 25 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.6 blocks, 2.4 steals, one assist and 0.8 threes in 39.2 minutes. The blocks alone are extremely valuable, but add the points and rebounds, and you have at least a top-10 player.
When it comes to NBA rankings, Davis is currently ninth in points, seventh in rebounds and second in blocks. It’s safe to say he’s a fantasy stud, so why would anyone need to be told to hold onto him?
The problem, so far, has been Davis’ injury-prone body. He’s missed three games this season, which isn’t too bad in itself, but that doesn’t cover all of the minor/nagging injuries he’s had to deal with. There have been many injuries (hip, ankle, shoulder and probably more) over the past few weeks that, while not showing up on any box score, have affected Davis’ game to varying degrees. He is so talented that deciding to keep him shouldn’t ever be seen as a bad decision, but after a while, minor injuries tend to take their toll. If you’re worried about a more significant injury lurking around the corner, the law of averages might warrant such concerns. Davis is a hold candidate, rather than sell, because it’s nearly impossible to find another single player who can match that kind of production. So, suggesting everyone sell on the big man is a bit of an overreaction, but as long as Davis is putting up numbers like he is now, it’s worth shopping him around to get a sense of where his value currently stands relative to your league.
Eric Gordon – SG – New Orleans Pelicans
At 5-16 on the season, the Pelicans are a mess. The only players in New Orleans who have provided reliable fantasy production are Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson – the main offensive threats for the first and second teams respectively. To be fair, Gordon’s stats this year aren’t too different from his career averages. His current scoring, steals, assists and rebounds are just under his career averages. He’s also attempting, and making, more threes per game than he has over his career, which, in part, has lead to a poorer shooting percentage from the field (40.8 percent). Those stats, however, no longer paint an accurate picture of Gordon’s current state in New Orleans.
There has been a multitude of injuries to key players on the Pelicans’ team, and now many of those players are starting to return. In Tyreke Evans‘ first game back, Gordon played 20 minutes, attempted only five shots and scored just eight points. Since then, Gordon has averaged 9.3 points and was actually held scoreless, playing just 16 minutes, in his last game. There’s no doubt that he can score points, and in doing so, knock down valuable threes, but for now, Gordon’s inconsistent playing time and production is a big red flag. He’s currently a “hold” candidate because his current production is simply too awful to be appealing to anyone, but if he can muster a few good games in a row, Gordon will immediately move to the sell category as there is no telling how long it would last.
SELL
Robert Covington – PF/SF – Philadelphia 76ers
Covington, currently in his third season, is hot right now. Over his last nine games, Covington has averaged 17.1 points (while shooting an uncharacteristically high 47 percent from the field), 7.2 rebounds, 3.3 three-pointers, 3.2 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.3 assists in 33.4 minutes. When you compare those numbers to his last year’s averages, you find there really isn’t any comparison, but that’s because Covington was a streaky young shooter on an awful team. And because he is still a streaky young (hopefully 24 is considered young for the NBA) shooter on an awful team, betting he will keep up his current pace is a little risky. It may feel like less of a risk to the majority of Covington owners as he was probably a recent waiver wire add, but there’s no reason to simply ride the hot streak without ever seeing what you can get for him. Anyone putting up more than three three-pointers and steals per game is a valuable asset, but add scoring and rebounding that’s useful in any league, and you have a player who other owners should want. He may very well continue to be a valuable fantasy asset for the rest of the season, but it’s hard to imagine that his value will remain in the top 50 for much longer.
Ryan Anderson – PF – New Orleans Pelicans
It’s starting to feel like the New Orleans’ show, but when a team with that much talent starts the season off with a 5-16 record, the fantasy implications are often widespread. Ryan Anderson, one of the Pelicans’ very few bright spots, is having a career year. In the face of constant lineup changes, injuries and just an overall poor supporting cast, Anderson is averaging 18 points, seven rebounds and 2.1 three-pointers per game, and he looks poised to keep it up. Unfortunately for Anderson, and possibly fantasy owners as well, his name is being thrown around in trade talks. It seems like the Pelicans may try to strengthen their frontcourt by dealing Anderson before he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer. To be clear, though, nothing is certain, and for now, only rumors exist, but it makes sense for a struggling team to get what they can for a player they likely won’t be able to afford next year. There’s definitely some risk in dealing Anderson before anything is official, so at the very least, he’s someone to pay attention to during the next couple weeks. If, however, you don’t mind taking the risk (and all trades are just that to some degree), now is a good time to make the move, because it’s unlikely that Anderson is going to play better than he is now, regardless of where he ends up.
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George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.
