LeSean McCoy should be able to continue his recent success against Houston
Tight ends took it on the chin this week. Jimmy Graham’s season is over due to a torn patellar tendon and Rob Gronkowski scared the world when he took a hard shot to his knee. Although it is unclear how much time he will miss, he seems to have avoided serious damage. Tony Romo and Chris Johnson can also be added to the list of players that we will not use again in fantasy football this year.
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WEEK 12 RECAP
Let’s take a look at a quick recap from Week 12.
I Knew It
Matthew Stafford – QB – Detroit Lions – 337 yds, 5 TD
I fully expected Stafford to throw for multiple touchdowns and he threw five of them. He finished as the QB1.
Alshon Jeffery – WR – Chicago Bears – 7 rec, 90 yds
Jeffery was targeted 11 times and produced to the tune of 16 fantasy points.
Jay Cutler – QB – Chicago Bears – 200 yds, 1 TD
Cutler saved face by not turning the ball over but finishing with 12 fantasy points made him bench-worthy.
Ted Ginn Jr. – WR – Carolina Panthers
Not only did Ginn Jr. not have a single reception but he was not targeted at all last week.
Jordan Reed – TE – Washington Redskins – 8 rec, 98 yds
He may not have finished as the top tight end, but he was the TE5 and gave you 17 fantasy points.
Teddy Bridgewater – QB – Minnesota Vikings – 174 yds, 1 INT
The veteran Atlanta Falcons’ defense held Bridgewater scoreless and under 200 yards.
I Blew It
Jason Witten – TE – Dallas Cowboys – 4 rec, 36 yds
Witten had a pedestrian day and at this point is drop candidate.
Jeremy Langford – RB – Chicago Bears – 12 att, 48 yds, 1 TD, 1 rec, 5 yds
You expect more than 11 points from a running back but, a touchdown is a hit for Langford and a miss for me.
Jameis Winston – QB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 245 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
The recently-hot Winston disappointed in a favorable matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.
Nate Washington – WR – Houston Texans – 3 rec, 43 yds
Cecil Shorts III, who had the lone touchdown of the receiving corps, was the play here.
Chris Johnson – RB – Arizona Cardinals – 12 att, 17 yds
A second-half injury made Johnson’s poor day even worse.
Martavis Bryant – WR – Pittsburgh Steelers – 5 rec, 69 yds, 1 rush, 11 yds, 1 rush TD
In my defense who could have really predicted a rushing touchdown?
Thomas Rawls – RB – Seattle Seahawks – 21 att, 81 yds, 1 TD
The process felt correct in benching Rawls against the top-rated Steelers’ run defense, but the results were a touchdown and 14 fantasy points.
Antonio Gates – TE – San Diego Chargers – 4 rec, 53 yds, 2 TD
Gates’ injury held him to four receptions, but it did not keep him out of the end zone.
WEEK 13 START/SIT SUGGESTIONS
Let’s take a look at start/sit suggestions for the final week of the fantasy football regular season.
Who’s Hot – Start
Fire Starter: LeSean McCoy – RB – Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
McCoy has five straight games with 100+ all-purpose yards. I do not see that streak ending this week against the Houston Texans who are allowing running backs an average of 16.5 points per game. In his last six games, he has finished with less than 17 points once. Karlos Williams appears to be headed for the sideline again this week leaving all of the opportunity in this run-heavy offense in McCoy’s hands. Over his past three games, he has seen increased usage in the passing game, catching 14 passes for 119 yards and a receiving touchdown. McCoy is playing at his best and will extend his 100+ yard streak this week.
Amari Cooper – WR – Oakland Raiders v Kansas City Chiefs
Cooper has not scored a touchdown since Week 9. He went over 100 yards last week for the first time since Week 7. This week he is being gifted with the Chiefs’ secondary at home. If he can put it all together by hitting the century mark and score a touchdown Cooper will have a huge day. Derek Carr has been generous to his entire receiving corps and could facilitate another strong performance for his rookie teammate.
Golden Tate – WR – Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
I am usually hesitant to recommend a player in a Thursday night game, let alone someone who plays second fiddle to Calvin Johnson. Tate is on my radar this week because of the level Matthew Stafford has been playing at. Over his past few games, Stafford has settled in and gotten back to slinging the ball. Tate is seeing more targets and has caught 25 passes in his past four games. He could be a sneaky play in a must-win game for the Detroit Lions.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – QB – New York Jets @ New York Giants
If Fitzpatrick has been feeling any effects from his recent thumb surgery, you wouldn’t know it with the way he has been playing. He has been an effective fantasy quarterback all season, turning in one single-digit game, and is currently the QB15. This week he will be playing as the visiting quarterback in his own stadium. The New York Giants secondary has been depleted with injuries and Fitzpatrick has two elite receivers on either side of him. He will look to be crowned the king of New York this week and throw for a couple touchdowns once again.
Shaun Draughn – RB – San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
Draughn has proven capable of being the 49ers’ workhorse and has taken every backfield touch in back-to-back games. The recent waiver wire add is also heavily used in the passing game, making him a steal for whoever was first to grab him. Volume alone dictates that you start Draughn, but his matchup against the Bears enhances his value this week. Running backs are averaging 16.5 points per game against Chicago, and Draughn will have ample opportunity to eclipse that number this week.
Delanie Walker – TE – Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I had to blink and look again when I realized Walker is currently the TE5 in fantasy football. He has transformed into the Titans’ WR1. He has put together strong, back-to-back performances turning 18 targets into 14 receptions for 200 yards. He has gone scoreless in his past three games. If he maintains his receiving floor and scores this week he will be a top play.
Who’s Not – Sit
Ice Cold: Mark Ingram – RB – New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
I am aware that Ingram had 20 fantasy points in his first game against the Panthers, but trends have changed since then. The Panthers’ defense seems to get stronger each week, and the Saints’ offense has gone in a different direction. After eight straight games with double-digit carries, Ingram has seen less than 10 in his past two games. Even though Ingram is seeing a handful of targets in the passing game the lack of ground volume is hurting his value. I recommend benching him against this stout defense.
Blake Bortles – QB – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Two weeks ago Blake Bortles had his worst game of the 2015 season to the tune of nine points. Two weeks ago he played against the Tennessee Titans. Their effective game plan from the week before last should still be fresh on the Titans’ minds, and this will prove to be another tough matchup for Bortles. He will also likely be without receiver Allen Hurns which decreases his value.
Latavius Murray – RB – Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Murray has not been able to get it going recently, and I doubt he puts it together against the Chiefs’ top 10 run defense. He has been burning fantasy owners, myself included. I am a heavily-invested, disappointed Murray owner and do not trust him in a week where I am either trying to clinch a bye or a playoff berth. I am practicing what I preach here in telling you to bench Murray. None of us are interested in a sixth-straight game of less than 15 fantasy points.
Mike Evans – WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
It is tough to bench a receiver like Evans, but if you can afford to do so I would. His target volume keeps him in the conversation as an every-week starter, but avoid him where you can this week. The Falcons are the second-best defense against receivers and have allowed only three touchdowns to the position all season. Vincent Jackson is healthy and effective which is hurting Evans’ production. Look elsewhere if you have the depth to this week.
Doug Baldwin – WR – Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
Recency bias can have a crippling effect on a fantasy team. Baldwin has recency bias written all over him. This bias predates his three-touchdown explosion last week. Since Seattle’s Week 9 bye, Baldwin has at least six receptions and 60 yards in three games with four touchdowns on top of those numbers. All three of those games were at home where the Seahawks are a different team. This week he will travel to Minnesota against a Vikings’ top 10 secondary. Baldwin is nothing more than a flex play with bust potential this week.
Scott Chandler – TE – New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, I am suggesting you bench this week’s top waiver wire add. Unless you are a Rob Gronkowski owner you have another usable tight end. I love Chandler’s opportunity with Gronkowski out but not this week. The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed tight ends to hit pay dirt twice this season. This is a game where Danny Amendola will see a majority of the targets and production against the Eagles’ secondary.
Get Start/Sit & Waiver Advice with My Playbook
For some, this may be your last game of the fantasy season. Others are trying to clinch a bye or secure a ticket to the dance. This is the week to find the correct balance between being smart and being bold. Good luck!
I do not have a crystal ball and can only rely on research and good old intuition. I may hit or miss on a few, but I’ll keep myself honest with a full disclosure section next week when I give you your “Who’s Hot” and “Who’s Not” for Week 14. Consider my recommendations here, but ultimately trust in yourself. Good luck!
Jen Ryan is a correspondent at FantasyPros, featured writer at Gridiron Experts and senior writer at Football Diehards. Click here for her archive and feel free to reach her and talk all things fantasy @FFdeJENerate.
