Will Calvin Johnson rebound following Week 14’s disaster?
After a poor game statistically, I examine the fantasy outlook for Lions great Calvin Johnson.
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With millions of people playing fantasy football worldwide, across a host of different platforms, it stands to reason that a fair few people on Sunday were united at one moment or another by a single thought, and moved to repeat a single mantra. That mantra being “JUST THROW THE BALL TO MEGATRON!” Real football is rarely as simple as fantasy players would like it to be, of course. Calvin Johnson was stuck on zero receptions, zero yards, and of course, zero fantasy points for most of Sunday’s clash with the Rams, before finally hauling in one of the passes sent his way (he was only targeted five times). Johnson had been nursing an injury coming into this game, but the great man has spent most of the past three seasons battling one ailment or another and didn’t seem to be in obvious discomfort. It was, as it appears on the stat sheet, a bad day at the office. Or would it be more accurate to state that it was ANOTHER bad day at the office, in a season of bad days?
The 2015 campaign will not go down as Megatron’s finest by any stretch of the imagination. While he has topped 39 yards in 12 games this season, he has only breached the 100-yard mark once, way back in Week 6. He has scored seven receiving touchdowns, but three of them came in one game. That was the Thanksgiving massacre of the Eagles, who were forced to match rookie Eric Rowe up against Johnson. Including Sunday, he has just 60 yards in his last two games.With such limited production, it is logical to assume that Johnson’s opportunities have also diminished. This assumption does not pass muster, however. Johnson is the most-targeted wide receiver on the Lions’ roster, receiving 118 looks this season. This has been converted into 71 catches (a catch rate of just over 60%) for 981 yards. His teammate Golden Tate has seen 12 fewer targets but has five more catches. This is due to the way that Tate is used, of course. His average depth of target is a long way below the 13.2 yards downfield that Johnson usually is when he is targeted, but this mark is still only good for 39th amongst wide receivers.
With such limited production, it is logical to assume that Johnson’s opportunities have also diminished. This assumption does not pass muster, however. Johnson is the most-targeted wide receiver on the Lions’ roster, receiving 118 looks this season. This has been converted into 71 catches (a catch rate of just over 60%) for 981 yards. His teammate Golden Tate has seen 12 fewer targets but has five more catches. This is due to the way that Tate is used, of course. His average depth of target is a long way below the 13.2 yards downfield that Johnson usually is when he is targeted, but this mark is still only good for 39th amongst wide receivers.
The Lions’ offense, first under Joe Lombardi and now Jim Bob Cooter, have not fully unleashed Megatron the deep threat this season. He has been targeted more than 20 yards downfield just 26 times, catching nine of these passes for 298 yards and two scores. Interestingly, none of his four drops this season have come on deep shots. The five targets Johnson saw against the Rams matched a season low, dating back to Week 1. He has seen at least six targets in 11 games, with four games seeing him targeted more than 10 times. For some reason or another, a mystery to someone like me who has not been allowed into the Lions’ offensive meeting room (and I have asked), Detroit’s offense has not been able to fully unleash Johnson on a regular basis in 2015.
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So what of the remainder of the season, as we look to the fantasy playoffs? Should owners of Johnson be looking to move him out of their lineups ahead of crucial “loser goes home” clashes? It would be very hard for me to recommend that action. Johnson has been one of those players that you must persist with starting, as the 20 points he will inevitably get won’t look pretty if they’re propping up your bench stats. Week 15 sees him facing off against the New Orleans Saints, who whilst playing better defensively last week are still a unit allowing nearly 300 passing yards a game this season, and almost 25 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Lions face the 49ers to close the fantasy season for most, and Jim Tomsula’s charges are slap in the middle in terms of generosity to wideouts this year.
If you are faced with the enviable choice between either Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown over Megatron, then you may consider shutting him down. If you don’t have such options, then you do not need to even think about sending him to your bench. You don’t want to be the guy who blew a fantasy championship because he decided to overthink it.
Neil Dutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Neil, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ndutton13.
