Lorenzo Cain is one of several Royals expected to regress in 2016
With many leagues employing an “OF” position and including up to five of these spots in a lineup rather than the real-life standard of left field, center field, and right field, outfielders can come at quite a premium in fantasy leagues. While the position ends up quite diluted in some deep leagues, there is still plenty of value to be found as many of the top performers in baseball (real-life and otherwise) are outfielders. While some leagues may come down to who snagged that waiver wire catcher who ends up knocking 20 home runs out of nowhere, most players can attest to the fact that a strong outfield corps can carry a team into and through the playoffs. There are some outfielders, however, that fantasy players should be wary of drafting next season. These are the outfield regression candidates for 2016.
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Odubel Herrera – Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies chose Herrera in the Rule 5 Draft from the Texas Rangers. Herrera had been part of the Rangers’ organization since 2010 and played in High-A and Double-A in 2014, hitting .297 in High-A and .321 in Double-A. Still, he was left off the team’s 40-man roster and thus exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. The Phillies saw something they liked in Herrera and used the eighth-overall pick to take him. Herrera ended up playing in 147 games for Philadelphia, slashing a respectable .297/.344/.418 with eight home runs, 41 RBI, and 16 steals. He had never hit more than five home runs in a season in his minor league career, so his power numbers may drop a bit, although playing his home games in Philadelphia’s hitter’s heaven helps. He also posted a .387 BABIP, which is sure to drop in his sophomore year. Because of his speed, we can expect him to beat out a few more ground balls than other players, but he’s always seen his BABIP hover around .350 in his minor league career, and that realistically should drop a bit with better pitchers and defenders at the highest level. Still, Herrera’s steals and top-of-the-order spot leading to runs scored make him a decent get in the later rounds. Owners should not expect another season of a near .300 batting average, but a .270 average with around 20 steals and half a dozen home runs could be realistic. With a slightly improved Phillies’ team around him, he may score more than the 64 runs he totaled last season, too.
David Peralta – Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks were a surprisingly strong offensive team in 2015, and with their well-publicized offseason additions to their pitching staff, they could be a serious threat in the NL West in 2016. While guys like Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock should carry the offense, a player who may see a decline in production is outfielder David Peralta. Peralta slashed an excellent .312/.371/.522 in 2015, with 17 home runs, 78 RBI, and nine stolen bases. He put up 3.7 fWAR despite bad defense and was one of the more underrated outfielders of the season. He did, however, benefit from quite a bit of luck, putting up a career high .368 BABIP and .210 ISO. Signs point to him still being an effective regular in 2016, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect 2015 part two. He should hit somewhere in the .280s with about 15 home runs and maybe 10 stolen bases. That’s certainly still valuable, especially in an offense projected to score plenty of runs.
Nelson Cruz – Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners DH/OF Nelson Cruz had an excellent season in 2015. He slashed .302/.369/.566 on his way to 44 home runs, 90 runs scored, and 93 RBI. He earned an All-Star nod, won the Silver Slugger, and ended up in sixth place in American League MVP voting. Cruz did nothing to make us believe he wouldn’t be worth owning in 2016, but he did show some clear signs that point to a not-as-successful season coming up. Most of his offensive numbers were career highs despite the fact that he struck out at a higher rate than he ever has before. When he did put the ball in play, he got on base 35% of the time. That seems unsustainable for someone with Cruz’s “speed,” and it shows with his career BABIP of .306. By no means is this to say that owners should stay away from Nelson Cruz in 2016, simply that they should keep their expectations below 2015’s results. Cruz should be good for a .260 batting average, 35 or so home runs, and another 90-95 RBI.
Lorenzo Cain – Kansas City Royals
Cain and the World Champion Kansas City Royals had a magical season in 2015. Most of their pieces are returning, so they’re pretty well set to defend their title. Some of their players, however, may look back at 2015 as the greatest statistical seasons of their careers. Cain is one of those players. He slashed an awesome .307/.361/.477 with 16 home runs, 101 runs scored, 72 RBI, and 28 steals. Cain was one of those rare fantasy players who contributed in every single category. He should continue that trend next season, albeit at a slightly lower rate. He’s played two consecutive seasons with high BABIPs buoying him to perceived success (his .380 in 2014 was astronomical, but his .347 in 2015 was still high). Cain still projects as an excellent fantasy asset in 2016, as he should hit in the .280s, smack a dozen home runs, and steal 20+ bases. He might score and drive in far fewer runs, however, as other players in the Royals’ lineup are set to regress along with him.
Adam Eaton – Chicago White Sox
Eaton spent the season as the White Sox lead-off man and fared well, slashing .287/.361/.431 while adding 14 home runs, 56 RBI, 98 runs scored, and 18 stolen bases. He also struck out at a higher rate than he ever had and posted an ISO about 40 points higher than his previous career high. Eaton should still be a solid lead-off man and will score runs from the top of a decent lineup, but his average should fall closer to .270 than .290. His home runs will likely dip to around 10, but his steals should stay similar. Draft Eaton as a guy who can score runs and steal bases, but don’t expect him to flirt with .300 or to approach 20 home runs.
David A. Marcillo is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMarcillo77.
