Expecting significant improvement from Kris Bryant in his sophomore campaign may not be realistic
The hot corner was a behemoth of fantasy production in 2015 with guys like Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado single-handedly winning matchups week after week. Despite their resounding successes, third base was a bit top-heavy in 2015 and may be again in 2016. Here, we’ll look at those players who may have seen luck or other unsustainable aspects play a part in their 2015 numbers.
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Kris Bryant – Chicago Cubs
The 2015 National League Rookie of the Year, Bryant had a ridiculous first season, slashing .275/.369/.488 with 26 home runs and 99 RBI. Those are great numbers for anyone, but for a rookie? That’s outstanding. Bryant will enter 2016 as one of the top third base choices in the universe, but owners should be careful not to expect huge growth in every category. While he will certainly still be worth a top draft pick, he also led all third basemen in BABIP with a .378 clip. He has always exceeded league average BABIPs in the minors, but major leaguers tend to sit right around .300. Bryant hits the ball hard and always has, so his BABIP will be higher than the average player, but expecting him to reach base on almost 40% of his balls in play might be expecting too much. He’ll put up an average in the .270s again, and with an even better team around him, he should be able to approach 30 home runs and 100 RBI. Basically, owners can expect the same numbers as 2015, but not a significant improvement.
Yasmany Tomas – Arizona Diamondbacks
Yasmany Tomas is another rookie who performed well in 2015, slashing .273/.305/.401 after playing only five games in the minor leagues. The 25-year-old Cuban bashed nine home runs, scored 40 runs, and drove in 48. There were some troubling signs, though, as he walked in only 4% of his at-bats and struck out in 25.8% of them. He also posted a .354 BABIP despite only having average speed. With the BABIP set to go down and the strikeout-to-walk ratio ready to be exploited by opposing pitchers, Tomas will need to make plenty of adjustments just to repeat his 2015 numbers, let alone improve on them. Owners can look elsewhere in what should be another stacked year of third base production, as Tomas projects to total only about a dozen home runs and hit in the high .250s.
Yunel Escobar – Washington Nationals
Yunel Escobar had a strong 2015 as a National. Because of that, the team is expected to shop him in the offseason. Regardless of which team he ends up on, however, it would be unrealistic to expect him to repeat his .314/.375/.415 line. He played 139 games and hit nine home runs, driving in 56 and scoring 75. He posted a career high in batting average for a full season while most other metrics stayed the same. The one that didn’t; his BABIP. Escobar has averaged a .306 BABIP throughout his career, consistent with the MLB average. In 2015, however, his BABIP sat at .347. As that regresses, so will the rest of Escobar’s numbers. Given that he may or may not even have a starting role in 2016, he can be passed over at least in the first half of fantasy drafts for now. Given a similar amount of playing time in 2016, Escobar projects to hit closer to his career average of .280 with no more than 10 home runs.
David A. Marcillo is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMarcillo77.
