Joey Gallo is primed to hit 30 homers as a rookie for your fantasy team this season
Last season we saw what will perhaps be known as the strongest rookie class in MLB history. Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, and Miguel Sano propelled fantasy teams to championships in 2015. This season there is another handful of terrific young ball players with the skill set to make a strong impact from day one of their career. Perhaps you won’t be able to add the rookie of the year to your roster, but each little piece is important in fantasy baseball. If you familiarize yourself with the up-and-comers, your odds of winning drastically increase. Over the week, I’ll be introducing you to a group of players that will give you the advantage you are looking for. Today we will get to know American League rookie hitters, Thursday you will meet the NL hitters and Friday the rookie pitchers from both leagues. This is the beginning of a winter series that I will be writing on MLB prospects; some which are extremely long-term players for deep-league enthusiasts, and many who are more practical for the typical fantasy baseball participant.
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If you follow baseball closely, you will recognize several of these names from brief MLB appearances in 2015, whether it was a September call-up or a late-summer cup of coffee. To be MLB rookie eligible, a player needs less than 130 big league at bats or 50 innings pitched. The first rule to youth in baseball is that you can’t be overly discouraged if a player left a lot to be desired in their first big league experience. In 2011, Mike Trout batted .220 with an abysmal slugging percentage in his first 123 ABs. The next season he finished 2nd in the MVP voting. A small sample size rarely tells an accurate story, and one off-season can make all the difference in the world.
As fantasy baseball managers, we are eager to make our own analysis of prospects, typically by using past performance as an exclusive indicator to future success, or scouting reports as the end all answer. We must be more careful in our approach. Basic statistics can be deceiving, and if you aren’t paying close attention, it will be difficult to notice. For instance, Thor (Noah Syndergaard) appeared to be abysmal in 2014. In Triple-A, he had a 4.60 ERA and 10.5 H/9 in 133 IP. At first glance, I would never let a minor-leaguer like that on my roster, but when you dig deeper you will find that he is 6’6” and 240 pounds, throws in the upper 90s, has plus breaking pitches and is a top-15 prospect. More importantly, he was pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and his home ballpark in Las Vegas is the PCL’s version of Coors Field. You don’t have to look very closely to see now that he will continue to be dominant in the majors going forward.
Then we have the opposite example, which you will find in countless cases (David Ortiz, Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick, Jason Bay, Ryan Howard, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Michael Brantley, J.D. Martinez, and so on). These players had no prospect status, usually because they had some combination of sub-par speed, arm, and range. As you very well know, these tools are mostly irrelevant in the fantasy baseball world. Sites like Baseball America tend to weight arm and range similarly to power and hit tool. You have to discipline yourself to read through the lines. The trained eye can find these rookies and know they will help you win a championship. Corey Dickerson is a prime example, pure dominance in the minors up to his promotion. In 2014, he compiled a .371 BA and a .632 slugging percentage in Triple-A through 345 PA. Granted, he was too old (24) to be a prospect, and he was slow with poor range and no arm, but for Pete’s sake, the kid could clearly hit. It doesn’t take a genius to forecast that stats like Dickerson’s would translate to the MLB, especially at Coors Field.
I have some obvious impact rookies (Byron Buxton, Kenta Maeda, Steven Matz, Joey Gallo), but plenty of less obvious ones (Mallex Smith, Sean Manaea), and even a few completely obscure ones (Peter O’Brien, Trey Mancini) that I believe will be extremely useful pieces for your 2016 fantasy championship team. First, let me give a strong disclaimer; I do not have a time machine. I don’t have a perfect projection model. I am not Billy Beane. No one can give you perfect information. Bill James, the sabermetrician and front office genius, explained that baseball is so appealing to the masses because even the professionals only have 20% of the game understood. Baseball is such a complex game. In 162 games, just 15 bounces can change a batting average from .300 to .270. No one can forecast each detail, but fantasy baseball isn’t about who is right 100% of the time, just like the best hitter doesn’t bat 1.000. Rather, we strive to be right 55-60% of the time while the rest of our league is correct 45-55% of the time. Perhaps a few guys from the list below will give you the slight edge you need to win.
Rookie of the Year Candidates
Joey Gallo (3B/OF – Texas Rangers) – Chances are high that you caught a glimpse of his utter raw power on SportsCenter once or twice last season, then wondered why he disappeared from the limelight. His .204 batting average may have been the primary reason, but he was just 21 and due for more development in the minors. While there, the masher posted an absurd .280 ISO and a 13.7% BB rate. I am expecting him to win a job out of spring training and hit around .250 with 30+ homers and 80+ RBI as a rookie.
Byung-Ho Park (1B – Minnesota Twins) – This 29-year-old rookie was imported over the off-season from the hitter-friendly KBO in South Korea. He bashed 105 homers over the past two seasons to go with 270 RBIs. You can (broadly) translate his numbers to the MLB by considering how Jung-Ho Kang translated from the KBO last season. Kang’s OBP dropped from .459 to .355 and his ISO from .383 to .174. If the same rates hold true, we can expect Park to post a .276 BA, .345 OBP, and .446 SLG. That triple slash line would make him most similar to Charlie Blackmon or Logan Forsythe of all MLB hitters last season, albeit he only qualifies at 1B.
Byron Buxton (OF – Minnesota Twins) – Most will consider him the favorite to take home the ROY hardware in 2016, but I am bearish on the often injured back-to-back No. 1 prospect in the game. Buxton has just 28 home runs in over 1,200 minor-league career plate appearances. His freak-of-nature tools have caused such lofty rankings, and perhaps one day he will become an annual MVP-candidate, but in 2016 I envision a much more pedestrian line of around .250 BA, 10 HR and 25 SB.
Second Half Heroes
Lewis Brinson (OF – Texas Rangers) – With Shin-Soo Choo, Josh Hamilton, Delino DeShields, and Joey Gallo all ahead of him on the depth chart, his opportunity may be hindered. But injuries happen, and when they do, Brinson will be a hot pick-up. The 21-year-old was not even a top-100 prospect entering 2015, but elite talent was always there, primed to break out, and that is exactly what he did. He hit for a .332 BA with 59 extra-base hits and 18 SBs in 398 ABs. Brinson is a future 30/30 guy, and you can only say that about a handful of prospects.
Nomar Mazara (OF – Texas Rangers) – There were dissenting opinions on Mazara’s future last pre-season. Some considered him a fringe prospect with a high ceiling, and others held him in significantly higher regard. Mazara is now a consensus top-20 prospect who hit .296 with 42 extra-base hits in Double-A and Triple-A at the ripe age of 20 years old. The odds are that he won’t see playing time until September, but if he breaks out even further then that shot could come sooner.
Matt Olson (OF – Oakland A’s) – The 21-year-old slugger had a “down year” in Double-A Midland where he posted 54 extra-base hits in 466 ABs. When Billy Beane inevitably shuffles up the A’s roster mid-season, Olson should get his chance. In 2014, Olson blasted 37 homers in 138 games. I do not expect that type of production right away in the majors, but he is without a doubt a power threat from day one of his MLB career.
Aaron Judge (OF – New York Yankees) – The former first-round pick is listed as 6’7”, 275 pounds and oozing with power. The raw power hasn’t yet transformed into game power yet, but this could be the year. If Beltran or Ellsbury goes to the disabled list, Judge could be the beneficiary. He was graded a top-50 prospect last season and is likely to receive the same recognition as ranking lists are released in the coming weeks.
Other Useful Pieces
Trey Mancini (OF – Baltimore Orioles) – Who needs Crush Davis when you have a kid on the horizon that hit .341 with 43 doubles and 21 homers last season in the minors. He may require further seasoning in Triple-A before being called up, or he could win the job in Spring Training. Either way, he will be impactful when he arrives.
Max Kepler (OF – Minnesota Twins) – All signs indicate he will be starting in right field for the Twins. Having grown up in Germany, Kepler faced a steep learning curve when he transitioned to American baseball, but his talent is obvious and his potential top-notch. Last season Kepler began to realize that potential, batting .322 in Triple-A with 76 R, 71 RBI, and 16 SB in 407 ABs. If Oswaldo Arcia doesn’t storm back to reclaim his old job then I could see Kepler hitting .270 with a dozen homers and 20 stolen bases in the majors this season.
Steven Moya (OF – Detroit Tigers) – Here is another could-be NFL tight end. This one has plenty of game power, evidenced by 124 extra-base hits over the past two seasons, but Moya also has a major strikeout problem. Last year he struck out 175 times in 540 ABs against minor-league pitching. If he gets promoted, Moya could catch a power streak and benefit your lineup, but he is otherwise likely to disappoint.
Dalton Pompey (OF – Toronto Blue Jays) – The former top-40 prospect was given a brief opportunity last season, but he appears to have lost his job to the slick-defending Kevin Pillar. If Pompey can earn his job back, he is fantasy relevant as a potential .290 hitter with 20 to 30 steals in him.
Keep an Eye On
Hyun-soo Kim (OF – Baltimore Orioles) – The Korean import is expected to start in left field on Opening Day, but primarily because of his defensive ability. His bat is more along the lines of a .250 hitter with 15 homers, but he has yet to reach his prime so his hitting ceiling could be higher than anticipated.
Richie Shaffer (3B/OF/1B – Tampa Bay Rays) – This 6’3”, 220 pound third basemen was considered the most polished hitter in the 2012 draft class. He did not produce in the 74 MLB ABs he was given at the close of the season, but his minor-league numbers were commendable. In 393 ABs he knocked 26 home runs, 27 doubles and drove in 72 runs. He is blocked by Longoria at 3B, but could see ABs if any of Jennings, Kiermaier, Souza, or Loney miss time.
Joey Rickard (OF – Baltimore Orioles) – He is the fourth Orioles’ outfielder listed in this article, so take that for what it is worth. Rickard is also the only Rule 5 pick from this year’s draft to appear in the series, so the 24-year-old is guaranteed some kind of opportunity. Last season he hit at every stop in the minor leagues, compiling a .321 batting average, 28 doubles, and 23 stolen bases in just 396 ABs. If he plays himself into significant playing time, Rickard will be one to monitor.
Longshot Contributors
A.J. Reed (1B – Houston Astros) – Former top prospect, Jon Singleton, is going to get the first crack at the first base gig in Houston, but if he fails (again) or is suspended (again) then Reed will be at the door to take his job. Reed is a 6’4”, 240-pound lefty that pounded 34 homers, 30 doubles and drove in 127 RBIs in 135 games last season, all while batting .340. The bat can play, but it is all dependent on whether he makes the jump from Double-A like Kyle Schwarber (a similar player) was able to do last year.
Raul Mondesi Jr. (SS – Kansas City Royals) – This top-30 prospect is nothing like his father. Rather, he lacks power and is an elite defensive shortstop. These factors will likely lead him to plenty of playing time, perhaps by the end of 2016. The tools may eventually progress into hitting production, but it is unlikely to be during the coming season.
Jacob Nottingham (C/1B – Oakland A’s) – When a general manager has a movie made after him, I tend to believe in a prospect that he goes out of his way to acquire. Nottingham was that guy in 2015 when Beane dealt Kazmir to the Astros. At the time, he was a no-name catching prospect, but he has emerged into a legitimate top-100 prospect with elite power for a catcher.
Chad Pinder (SS/2B – Oakland A’s) – As it stands now, Marcus Semien, Eric Sogard, and Jed Lowrie are blocking his path to ABs, but over the course of a long season, the time will come where the A’s need a middle infielder. Enter Pinder, the 23-year-old power-hitting right-hander. Pinder hit .317 with 49 extra-base-hits in 477 ABs last season.
Tyler White (3B/OF/1B – Houston Astros) – After raking in Double-A, the 24-year-old batted .362 with 27 extra-base hits in 213 Triple-A ABs. Granted, he posted those stats in the hitter-friendly PCL, but the numbers pass the sniff test. If Luis Valbuena regresses he might just lose his job. More likely, I foresee White being called up mid-summer and becoming the half of a platoon that only plays against left-handed pitchers.
Jon Kemmer (OF/1B – Houston Astros) – The Astros sure do produce plenty of power hitters now that Jeff Luhnow is running the show for Houston. Unfortunately for Kemmer, that means he is stuck behind Colby Rasmus, Carlos Gomez, George Springer, Preston Tucker, Jake Marisnick, Jon Singleton, and A.J. Reed. He is probably best suited to debut in 2017 anyways, but none-the-less he batted .327 with 50 extra-base hits in 364 ABs last year.
