Whichever team drafts Jared Goff better hope he learns to keep his eyes open when under pressure
In Part 1 of this series, we examined the five early-entry wide receivers who are poised to carry the most fantasy relevance in 2016. In Part 2, we’ll look at the most notable running backs and quarterbacks foregoing their remaining NCAA eligibility.
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RUNNING BACK
The 2015 NFL Draft ended a two-year drought that saw no running backs taken off the board in the opening round for the first time in league history. Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon were both drafted within the first 15 picks, and while Gurley lived up to the hype, despite coming off a torn ACL, Gordon was a colossal disappointment. This year’s running back group features two players with a real chance to make an immediate impact, and both are juniors, but only one of them is a surefire bet to hear his name called in Round 1.
Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State)
Alabama’s Derrick Henry has the Heisman hardware after rushing for 2,219 yards this season, but Ezekiel Elliott averaged 6.3 yards per carry (1,821 yards) to Henry’s 5.6, as the Ohio State star played two less games. Elliott also ran for 1,800-plus yards as a sophomore last season (6.9 YPC) while Henry (990 yards, 5.8 YPC) was splitting carries with T.J. Yeldon. Of course, “Zeke” became a household name beginning with the 2014 Big Ten title game, averaging a ridiculous 232 rushing yards while totaling eight touchdowns in wins over Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon to carry the Buckeyes to the inaugural CFP National Championship.
Elliott has racked up 41 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons, and he has also proven a capable receiver with 55 catches in that span. At 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds, the former Gatorade Track Athlete of the Year in the state of Missouri has all the requisite tools: size, speed, vision, burst, strength, patience, balance. He’s also a fine blocker, all of which translates to a three-down back at the next level. He’ll more than likely be the first running back off the board, and expect that to happen in the first round.
Derrick Henry (Alabama)
Henry doesn’t run with quite the same flash as Elliott, but there is no denying the production from the nation’s leader in rushing yards and rushing TDs (28) in 2015. Henry is a physical runner who looks to make one cut and get downhill. It may be a good thing that he spent his first two seasons in Tuscaloosa sharing the workload with Yeldon, considering Henry logged 395 carries this season with that bulldozing running style. Alabama’s workhorse had more than 30 carries in a game five times this season, including back-to-back outings with 40-plus touches late in the year.
Whereas Elliott is a no-brainer first-round talent, Henry was given a second-round grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Board, which he understandably said he was not satisfied with. Part of that may be due to the recent spotty history of former ‘Bama running backs who found less daylight in the pros than behind the Crimson Tide’s vaunted offensive line. Henry is the sixth starting running back in a row under coach Nick Saban to declare early, joining Glen Coffee, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy and Yeldon. For his part, Henry has said his preferred landing spot is with the Dallas Cowboys, who pick fourth overall and then No. 34.
QUARTERBACK
As we’ve seen in years past, it’s best to temper fantasy expectations for rookie quarterbacks, even the best of the best. After all, Peyton Manning was drafted first overall after shattering records and winning numerous national awards at Tennessee, only to then throw a league-high 28 interceptions as a rookie. Last year, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the top two picks, and neither was a viable weekly starter. So keep that in mind, as the quarterbacks below are mainly prospects for dynasty formats.
Jared Goff (California)
A three-year starter at Cal, Goff began his collegiate career in 2013 as the school’s first-ever true freshman quarterback to start from day one. His average yards per attempt improved each season, from 6.6 to 7.8 to 8.9, and his QB rating also improved each year, from 123.2 to 147.6 to 161.3. In his final season, he set Pac-12 records with 4,719 passing yards and 43 touchdowns, culminating in the Golden Bears’ first bowl victory in seven years with a 467-yard, six-touchdown effort against Air Force.
Goff has drawn comparisons to Matt Ryan, and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell is even of the opinion that Goff is a better thrower than Marcus Mariota and a better prospect than Jameis Winston. Not only can Goff make all of the throws (including a 43.8 completion percentage on deep passes), he also has the presence to look safeties off. Among the few concerns are that he never took snaps under center in Cal’s “Bear Raid” offense and will need to learn proper footwork. There was also a five-interception game at Utah, which kicked off the Bears’ four-game losing streak. Some pundits have him going as high as No. 2 overall to the Browns, who happen to have a need for a franchise quarterback.
Paxton Lynch (Memphis)
Like Goff, Lynch can make all of the throws with the necessary velocity or touch, but he needs to prove himself in the footwork department. What Lynch may lack in consistent accuracy, he makes up for with his athleticism (he ran for 321 yards and 13 TDs in 2014). Also like Goff, Lynch steadily improved his YPA and QB rating in each of his three seasons at Memphis, tossing 28 TDs against only four interceptions to go with an average of 8.5 YPA as a junior.
Another similarity with Goff is that Lynch and the Tigers sputtered down the stretch after an 8-0 start, although he still earned first-team All-ACC honors. Scouts also question his anticipation and ability to make quick reads. Still, at 6-foot-7 and 245 pounds, there is no doubt that Lynch has the frame to be a successful NFL quarterback, although he could benefit from a year on the bench learning the intricacies. He certainly has the skill set to be a zone-read weapon right now.
Cardale Jones (Ohio State)
Jones, a former third-stringer at Ohio State, was an improbable hero of the Buckeyes’ national title run last season, knocking off three of the country’s top contenders in his first three starts. Things did not go quite as planned in 2015, and Jones eventually lost his starting job to J.T. Barrett despite Ohio State being undefeated at the time. Across the 10 games Jones either started or was partly involved, he averaged a healthy 8.3 yards per attempt and posted a 141.5 QB rating. He tossed only eight touchdowns against five interceptions, however.
The irony is that if he went pro after that 2014 title run as a redshirt sophomore, he may have been a first-round pick. Now, it’s anybody’s guess when Jones will end up coming off the board. He’s incredibly raw and needs work on his throwing technique and ability to read defenses. He’s been compared to Russell Wilson, but frankly, that’s a discredit to Wilson’s decorated college career at NC State and Wisconsin. Still, Jones does have the ability to gain chunks of yards on the ground with his 6-foot-5, 250-pound frame, which makes him tough to bring down. He also has a cannon for an arm, not to mention he was unbeaten in 11 starts.
Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.
