Jeremy Jeffress will likely enter the season as the Brewers’ closer
After spending much of the preseason speculating about the potential breakout by Will Smith, many fantasy prognosticators forgot about the presence of Jeremy Jeffress in Milwaukee. With the news of Smith’s LCL injury, there is no timetable in regards to his return. But this opens the door for Jeffress to take the ninth inning in Milwaukee and run with it.
For those fantasy players who are in perpetual chasing saves mode, this is news worth monitoring. Jeffress won five games last year and pitched effectively in his 68 innings of work. He recorded a 67:22 K:BB for the Brewers with a 2.65 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. While his numbers are not as tantalizing as Smith’s, Jeffress should get first chance at the closer job for the Brewers. As any fantasy owner understands, possession is nine-tenths of the law.
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Looking beneath his statistics, there are interesting facts to take note of. Jeffress dropped his contact rate almost 10 percentage points to 75.2 last year and his swinging strike rate jumped to 11.4 percent. These are two very positive trends. Checking out his sabermetric page on BrooksBaseball.net, Jeffress recorded a whopping 58.75 percent whiff rate with his curve last year. For perspective, Dellin Betances of the Yankees had a 51.18 whiff per swing rate with his curve last year. Betances is one of three relievers to have over 100 strikeouts last season.
As a closer, Jeffress will not rack enough innings to make a run at 100 strikeouts, but if he can maintain the gains in his swinging strike percentage along with limiting contact, his WHIP could drop to a number closer to his second half rate of 1.24. This would benefit his owners along with Jeffress’ fantasy standing in 2016. With Milwaukee, Jeffress has a 2.42 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 96.7 innings pitched. This is a nice baseline for trying to gauge his value as the potential closer for the Brewers.
Jeffress was supposed to be a star in the Royals’ farm system and has bounced around due to some behavior issues along with mixed results on other teams. But he is in line to close for the Brewers, and he is comfortable with the team. It remains to be seen if he will thrive in the role, but his present ADP of 323.5 is sure to spike in the week leading up to the start of the fantasy season. For those about to draft, keep Jeffress in mind as a third reliever with second-reliever upside late in drafts.
Value in fantasy can be fleeting, but opportunity trumps all. There has been no official word out of Milwaukee, but Jeffress is in line to open the year as the closer. For a team in a rebuild, his timing may be perfect to carve out his role with the club. Let others speculate about his role, while you take a chance on the strikeout upside in his curve along with his 2.22 ERA after the All-Star break last year.
In short, speculate on Jeffress this week if given the chance.
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Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.
