Byung-ho Park leads all rookies with seven home runs
With five weeks of the fantasy season in the rearview mirror, the rookie crop has started to make a name for itself. While this year’s group is not as deep as the 2015 class, there are plenty of first-year players who can make an impact on your fantasy team.
Every couple of weeks, the Rookie Report will keep you up to date on the latest comings and goings in the world of major league rookies. We aim to provide you with news and information about some of the first-time major league players who are making an impact in fantasy and break down the expectations for their future.
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Infielders
Byung-ho Park (MIN – 1B)
Over the first two weeks of the season, Park struggled to adapt to major league pitching after clubbing .353 with 53 home runs in Korea last season. The Twins’ rookie struck out 15 times in his first 36 MLB at-bats on his way to a .167 average. Despite the slump, the Twins stuck with their man trusting his bat would come around.
In the last three weeks, Park has rewarded Minnesota’s faith in him by absolutely crushing it. Since April 18, Park has cut down the swings and misses. He posted a 24.5% K rate compared to 36.5% in his first 10 games. The result has been a slash line of .320/.386/.700 in his last 50 ABs. Park’s power has followed suit, as well, as he has crushed seven homers on the year leaving him as the American League rookie leader for dingers.
Available in a good chunk of fantasy leagues (Currently 50% Yahoo, 33% ESPN), Park should be scooped up immediately by anyone in need of a cheap source of power. While the average will likely remain in the .255 – .270 range, the potential for a 30-plus homer season is there, especially as the weather heats up.
- 2016 stats: 86 AB, 13 R, 7 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, .256 AVG
Trevor Story (COL – SS)
Story’s historic start to the season launched the Rockies’ shortstop into a tier of his own for fantasy rookies. Following his seven home runs in his first six major league games, Story went on a mini-drought hitting only one blast in his next 50 ABs. He also saw his batting average drop nearly 100 points while striking out at a nearly 50% clip. However, in his last 10 games, Story has leveled out between the two extremes.
Since April 29, he has hit only two home runs but managed to cut his strikeout rate down to a reasonable 25.5%. The increased plate discipline helped Story post an OBP of over .400 during the stretch, something he wasn’t even doing during his home run streak. If Story can continue getting on base in the two-hole in front of Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenando, his storybook season will culminate with a Rookie of the Year trophy.
- 2016 stats: 130 AB, 23 R, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 2 SB, .277 AVG
Other Notable: Aledmys Diaz (STL – SS), Corey Seager (LAD – SS)
Outfielders
Brandon Drury (ARI – 3B/OF)
Coming off a season where Arizona scored the second-most runs in the majors, it did not look like the Diamondbacks would have anywhere to play the versatile Drury. After hitting .389 with four homers this spring, manager Chip Hale could not leave the young slugger off the roster. However, the early season elbow injury to A.J. Pollack opened up some at-bats and a spot in the outfield, giving Drury a place in the lineup.
The former Braves’ prospect has cashed in with the opportunity in Phoenix. In his last 16 games, he has crushed five homers while posting a .333 average. Through 100 at-bats this season he ranks third with rookies in batting average and home runs. His recent performance has earned the faith and trust of his manager, making him a lineup lock going forward. Still available in over 40% of Yahoo leagues, Drury’s multi-position eligibility should be the clincher, solidifying him as a hot choice off the waiver wire.
- 2016 stats: 104 AB, 13 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, 0 SB, .298 AVG
Mallex Smith (ATL – OF)
At first glance, Smith’s numbers look like they have no place on a fantasy team. While I will concede that his batting average of .224 with only one home run does not make a strong case for the Braves’ rookie, there is more to the story. Holding a .391 average over his last 25 plate appearances along with five runs scored and four driven in makes the speedster a freshman to watch in a weak rookie outfield class.
With the Braves’ offense sitting dead last in the majors in multiple categories (average, runs scored, home runs), Smith will continue to get at-bats in Atlanta’s lost season. With over 200 stolen bases in his last three season in the minors, the centerfielder has massive stolen base upside in fantasy. He hit .287 in Triple-A while striking out only 15% of the time and walking, meaning he can be more than Billy Hamilton-lite in the big leagues.
- 2016 stats: 75 AB, 9 R, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 4 SB, .224 AVG
Other Notable: Nomar Mazara (TEX – OF), Joey Rickard (BAL – OF)
Pitchers
Steven Matz (NYM – SP)
Last season, Matz was well on his way to a dominating rookie season with a 2.27 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a perfect 4-0 record in six starts before tearing his lat muscle. Despite a disastrous season debut, seven runs in 1.2 innings, the Mets’ southpaw has picked up where he left off last summer.
In the 33 innings since his first start, the Mets’ LHP has given up only four earned run while striking out 34. Also, opponents are batting only .220 against him in his last five starts. Not coincidently, he has five quality starts and is 5-0 over that span. Pitching in the NL East, Matz will get plenty of cracks at three of the bottom four offenses in the National League, in terms of runs scored, Miami, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. The only concern for Matz in fantasy is if there will be a innings cap for the soon to be 25-year-old since 141 innings are the most he has ever tossed in one season.
- 2016 stats: 6 GS, 34.2 IP, 5 W, 35 K, 2.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Jon Gray (COL – SP)
Anyone pitching in the thin air of Colorado is going to have their struggles. While Gray has been lit up at Coors Field this season and last, 9.20 ERA in seven career home starts, when he takes to the road he is lights out. In his last two starts, both on the road, Gray posted a 1.38 ERA and 0.60 WHIP while striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. When you factor his last turn was against the hot-hitting Giants, who own a .281 average at home, and he finished with a seven-inning one-hit masterpiece, the MLB future looks bright for the former Sooner.
As for his fantasy usefulness, that is where things get tricky. As with any pitcher who calls Denver home, a majority of their starts are going to be stomach turners. But based on Gray’s electric stuff (rookie leader with 11.6 K/9 rate) his ownership level needs to be higher than the 6% of Yahoo leagues it currently is. My advice is to grab him off the wire and keep your sanity by starting him when on the road and benching him for those dangerous Coors Field outings.
- 2016 stats: 4 GS, 21.2 IP, 0 W, 28 K, 5.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Other Notable: Colin Rea (SD – SP), Chris Devenski (HOU – RP)
Dale Redman is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Dale, check out his archive and follow him@DTRedman.
