Adam Wainwright is showing why he’ll be turning things around this season
As a Mets fan, I really should root for Adam Wainwright to fail. Like most of my family and friends, I still have nightmares about Wainwright’s perfect curveball to Carlos Beltran falling harmlessly into Yadier Molina’s mitt, ending the Mets’ 2006 playoff run and propelling the Cardinals to the World Series. That one pitch sent my beloved Metropolitans into a nearly decade-long tailspin. So, I think I’d be well within my rights to wish Mr. Wainwright no success at all.
The thing is, I don’t. And it’s not just because the Mets almost won the World Series last year or have one of the great young pitching staffs in all of baseball (yes, that was gratuitous, but hey, it’s MY article!). I’ve probably drafted Wainwright in at least one league every year since 2006. I like him. He’s tough, and smart, and can even hit a little, as demonstrated by the homer he hit on Monday. He’s what a great pitcher should be. So, when I tell you that Wainwright is going to turn his season around, you can feel free to take my personal feelings into account.
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Don’t believe that a turnaround is imminent? I can’t blame you. Wainwright has a 6.68 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP this season. He has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy. The underlying metrics don’t overwhelmingly point to a turnaround, either. His last two starts have been by far the most encouraging outings of his season, and he’s thrown 11 1/3 innings while giving up seven runs. But, I’ve watched Wainwright a lot and I’ve studied the numbers, and I’ve got juuuuuuuuust enough data to support me.
First, let’s remember that Wainwright basically missed all of last year with an Achilles injury. Have you ever missed a full season and then tried to pitch? Didn’t think so! He’s been saying all year long that his mechanics just need some refining, and that certainly seems plausible. After all, after missing all of 2011, Wainwright pitched to a 4.56 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in the first half of 2012, and a 3.28 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in the second half (yes, that was after Tommy John surgery, but work with me here). So, it’s reasonable to think that Wainwright’s struggles so far in 2016 are largely mechanical.
The good news for me is that the underlying data supports that theory. What happens when your mechanics are off? Your velocity drops. And what’s happened in Wainwright’s last two starts, during which he has pitched better? You guessed it, his velocity went up. Here is Wainwright’s velocity on his two fastballs (four-seam and sinker) this season:
Fourseam
- First four starts: 90.83 mph
- Last two starts: 92.11 mph
Sinker
- First four starts: 90.42 mph
- Last two starts: 91.39 mph
Wainwright’s career strikeout percentage is 20.5%. In his first four starts of 2016, his strikeout percentage was 8.7%. Against the Diamondbacks – 22.7%. Against the Phillies – 16.7%.
Wainwright’s allowed medium or hard contact rates on about 82% of his pitches for his career. In his first four starts, that number was at about 90%. Against the Diamondbacks – 81.3%. Against the Phillies – 78.9%.
So, what does all that add up to?
I think it shows that Wainwright is figuring out his mechanics and is getting really close to being the old Wainwright – a guy with good ratios with enough innings to make his strikeout rate passable. And the best part is that of all the decent pitchers who are off to slow starts, the sense I get is that it’s Wainwright’s value that has taken the largest hit. So, even if you don’t fully believe in the turnaround, you can probably make a profit on a Wainwright trade, given how little you need to give up.
And, if you do trade for Wainwright, don’t mind me if I flinch a little every time he throws one of those perfect curveballs.
Dan Fisher is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him @dfisher80.
