Has Andrew McCutchen’s poor play (and that of other first round fantasy picks) diminished the value of a first round pick?
You can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it. It’s a saying fantasy analysts have been preaching for years. It’s a simple way of saying when opting between safety and upside at the beginning of drafts, it’s better to play it safe.
In the first round of 2016 drafts, Andrew McCutchen did not offer the power potential of Giancarlo Stanton or the stolen base upside of Jose Altuve. But he was safe and could be counted on. That is, until he couldn’t be.
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Every year from 2012 to 2015 McCutchen hit at least .292/.401/.488 with 21 home runs, 83 RBI and 89 runs scored. Those are the low values of a tremendous four-year stretch. Squarely in his prime at 29 years old there seemed to be no reason why his numbers would drop entering the season.
Through 66 games the former MVP is batting .243 with a .322 OBP and an eye-popping 74 strikeouts. When taking a closer look at McCutchen’s numbers, it becomes clear the problem is his strikeout to walk ratio. After striking out in 19.4% of his at bats last year, that number has risen to 24.8% in 2016.
His walk percentage has dropped from 14.3% to 9.7%. This is the kind of drastic decrease in performance often seen from power hitters late in their career and not athletic center fielders in their prime.
There are a couple of theories as to what has led to the drop in production. The first is the ridiculous notion that he began hitting second this season. Batting order can affect numbers but not the extent McCutchen’s have dropped this year and he has recently moved back to third.
The other theory is a nagging thumb injury that has not caused a trip to the disabled list but is affecting his performance. A hand injury could explain the increase in strikeouts but not the alarming downward trend in the stolen base department. McCutchen’s steals have decreased the past four years from 27 to 18 to 11 to two so far in 2016.
So what does this mean? Is safety in the first round overrated because McCutchen hasn’t worked out this season? Probably not.
That’s a study for another day. What it does mean is that owners need to reevaluate their expectations for the rest of McCutchen’s season. If the hand injury report is true, then it doesn’t appear things will get much better in the second half.
McCutchen should be jettisoned for as little as 75% of his draft value if still possible. Assuming he recovers from the underreported injury over the offseason, McCutchen could be had at a bargain in early 2017 drafts.
Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.
