Better days are likely ahead for Justin Turner
Part of playing fantasy is realizing that sometimes sexy does not equate to titles. Teams need a roster of varying types of players to provide balance. Justin Turner is far from sexy but gets the job done for fantasy purposes. He started this year very slowly. Prior to his eight-game hit streak which was snapped on Tuesday night, he was hitting .221 for the Dodgers. But, during his hit streak, Turner was 14-for-30 (.467) with five home runs and five multi-hit games and now has his average at .248 for the season. This does not really drive the needle, but it does provide hope for those who own Turner or are thinking about adding him this weekend.
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So far in 2016, Turner has played in 69 games with 29 runs, 10 home runs, 32 RBI and one stolen base. He is slashing .248/.331/.424 with a BABIP of only .259. This is important as his career BABIP is .314 so there is definite room for growth in all parts of his slash line. Last year, Turner hit .294 with a BABIP of .321. His walk and strikeout percentages are in direct line with his previous two seasons, so this is another plus. Variance can be confusing when trying to discern what a player is capable of moving forward, but Turner has a solid two-year run to work off of.
In regards to his batted ball data, on the surface, things seem to be going relatively according to plan. Turner has a slight drop in his line drive percentage but has seen his hard contact (exit velocity over 90 MPH) rise by over four percent versus last year. This may have fueled his recent power binge with five home runs in the last eight contests. Turner’s contact this year is slightly higher than in 2015 and his swinging strike percentage is also in line like most of his other data.
It is the low BABIP which has prohibited his early production and some can be attributed to bad luck. But there is room for plenty of positive migration of his statistics moving forward this season. Over the last 365 days (statistical year), Turner has played 135 games with 58 runs, 17 HR, 60 RBI, five stolen bases and a .256/.340/.427 slash line. Looking at his career with the Dodgers and using his 304 games in Los Angeles as a guide, if Turner were to play 150 games this year, his numbers should look as such: 64 runs, 16 home runs, 67 RBI, six stolen bases with a .296/.370/.474 slash line.
The slash line as a Dodger is what fantasy owners are hoping for if they add Turner for the remainder of 2016. His present OPS of .755 lags behind his career number with Los Angeles of .844. His number for the last statistical year is .766 so either he has settled into this number range or there is room for some growth moving forward. According to his present pace from this year, Turner is in line to produce 64 runs with 22 home runs, 71 RBI and two stolen bases in 153 games.
All of the paces agree with the past production and the statistical year. It remains to be seen if Turner can recover the BABIP numbers from his past and generate the rise in his OPS which will only accentuate his value. All players go through streaks of some degree. Turner started slow and has turned things around. As long as his statistics moving forward agree with his numbers as a Dodger, he is a player worthy of adding for the remainder of the season. Especially if his BABIP recovers and he can maintain the growth in hard contact he has displayed to start the year.
It seems easy to predict Turner could reach 65 runs with 17 home runs and 65 RBI this year. But if his average does recover to the .275 range or higher, than his rest of the year stats will be worth adding. Turner also is a reverse splits type of hitter as he is better versus right handed pitchers. But to start 2016, he is only hitting .251 versus right-handed pitchers with a .760 OPS while his career rate is .289 with an OPS of .792. If the gains can stay in regards to power, Turner could make a run at 20 home runs this year. Whatever the case, a simple marriage of his batting average versus right-handed pitchers will improve his average.
Adding a player with a solid skill set who is not on most radars due to his limited upside, Justin Turner is someone to target for fantasy due to the relative safety. Sometimes it trumps sexy.
Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.
