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	<title>FantasyPros &#187; Accuracy</title>
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	<description>Fantasy Football Experts and Rankings</description>
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		<title>2011’s Most Accurate Experts</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Dec 2011 17:26:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011 Accuracy Contest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Paulsen The Fantasy Shrink]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Moore 4for4]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Hanson EDSFootball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Most Accurate Expert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sablich Brothers The New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Pianowski Yahoo! Sports]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=15538</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The results are in! If you’ve been following along all season, you know that our accuracy competition has been building towards this moment: The unveiling of 2011’s most accurate fantasy football expert. &#160; For those unaware of our process, we’ve painstakingly tracked the weekly player rankings of the industry’s top fantasy pundits. Using our PAY™ . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-12237" title="Accuracy3" src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/Accuracy.jpg" alt="" width="148" height="118" />The results are in! If you’ve been following along all season, you know that our accuracy competition has been building towards this moment: The unveiling of 2011’s most accurate fantasy football expert.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>For those unaware of our process, we’ve painstakingly tracked the weekly player rankings of the industry’s top fantasy pundits. Using our <a title="Accuracy Methodology" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/about/faq/accuracy/" target="_blank">PAY™ methodology</a>, we scored over <strong>2 million start/sit predictions</strong> from 67 experts. That field size is nearly double the expert pool of <a title="2010 Accuracy Results" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/#2010" target="_blank">2010</a> &amp; <a title="2009 Accuracy Results" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/#2009" target="_blank">2009</a>. It goes without saying, therefore, that this was an extremely competitive competition.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>So what’s in it for the experts, you ask? The top performers will earn bragging rights, prestige, a little <a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/FantasyPros_NFL/media/slideshow?url=http%3A%2F%2Fyfrog.com%2Fh7tltgj" target="_blank">“bling”</a>, and a ticket to our <a title="FantasyPros Invitational" href="http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/658755" target="_blank">FantasyPros Invitational league</a>. We’re also considering throwing in congratulatory handshakes from Jim Schwartz &amp; Jim Harbaugh.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Without further ado, here are 2011’s top fantasy experts. You can view the full standings over at the <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">accuracy section</a> of our site.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span id="more-15538"></span></p>
<h3><strong>Overall Accuracy Standings</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 580px; height: 229px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Top 10 Expert Ratings</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Rank</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 1.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy" target="_new">Scott Pianowski &#8211; Yahoo! Sports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 2.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantasyshrink.com/" target="_new">John Paulsen &#8211; The Fantasy Shrink</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 3.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com" target="_new">Kevin Hanson &#8211; EDSFootball</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 4.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.4for4.com/" target="_new">Josh Moore &#8211; 4for4.com</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 5.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/" target="_new">Sablich Brothers &#8211; The New York Times</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 6.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.profootballfocus.com/" target="_new">Jeff Ratcliffe &#8211; Pro Football Focus</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 7.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy" target="_new">Staff Composite &#8211; Yahoo! Sports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 8.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.rotoworld.com/" target="_new">Gregg Rosenthal &amp; Chris Wesseling &#8211; Rotoworld</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 9.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://fantasyfootball.com/" target="_new">Mike Woellert &#8211; FantasyFootball.com</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 10.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantasyfootballnerd.com/" target="_new">Site Rankings &#8211; FantasyFootballNerd</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Notes:</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Congratulations to <a title="Scott Pianowski - Yahoo! Sports" href="http://sports.yahoo.com/" target="_blank">Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)</a> for earning the title of 2011’s Most Accurate Expert. Pianowski narrowly (and we do mean <em>narrowly</em>) edged out <a title="John Paulsen - The Fantasy Shrink" href="http://www.fantasyshrink.com/" target="_blank">John Paulsen (The Fantasy Shrink)</a> for the crown. In fact, the accuracy scores of both experts were so close that you can’t even tell the difference in the standings! We had to extend the decimal points on the ratings to see that Pianowski’s PAY™ (63.711%) was literally a fraction better than Paulsen’s score (63.705%). The difference in scores is the virtual equivalent of choosing between LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice for your top fantasy RB. You’d be in great shape either way and that’s likely how things turned out if you followed either expert’s advice.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>As you might expect, Pianowski landed the top honor by delivering well rounded advice across the positions we track. Fantasy owners want recommendations at every position so our scoring rewards versatility. Pianowski’s picks ranked him in the top 15 among all experts at RB (#2), QB (#4), TE (#14), &amp; WR (#15). He even threw in strong performances at Kicker (#5) and DST (#6) just for good measure. In doing so, he was the only expert to finish in the top 15 for all 6 major positions tracked.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>As the <a title="2010's Most Accurate Expert" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2010/12/most-accurate-fantasy-football-expert/" target="_blank">defending champ from last season</a>, John Paulsen deserves a lot of credit for finishing right near the top of the standings once again. Similar to Pianowski, he was a top 15 performer at each of the 4 major positions we monitored: WR (#4), QB (#6), TE (#3), &amp; RB (#15). Perhaps most impressively, Paulsen saved some of his best advice for when the stakes were highest. His week 16 accuracy rating (70.3%) was a personal best and vaulted him from 4<sup>th</sup> in the standings to 2<sup>nd</sup> overall.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>If we handed out an award for the competition’s top newcomer, it would undoubtedly go to <a title="Kevin Hanson - EDSFootball" href="http://www.eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/" target="_blank">Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)</a>. Hanson was a fixture in the top 5 throughout the season and even led the contest heading into the final week. He also owns the distinction as being the only expert to eclipse the 70% PAY™ mark for a single position. Hanson’s #1 QB rating (70.3%) means that following his relevant advice would have netted owners over 70% of all available fantasy points. Simply put, if you needed QB advice in 2011, the ultimate source to go to was over at EDSFootball. That’s not to say that Hanson was a one-trick pony, however. He also earned a top 10 rating at both WR (#3) &amp; RB (#8), demonstrating that he’s among the best of the best when it comes to fantasy prognostication.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li> One of the key takeaways we continue to have from these competitions is that there’s a definite skill involved in providing accurate fantasy advice. Consider this: Half of this season’s top 10 experts also finished in the top 10 last season. That’s pretty impressive considering that we added nearly 30 experts to the fold this year. Another 2 of this season’s top 10 finished right outside that mark last season (#11 &amp; #12), so effectively 70% of the experts held onto their placement atop the leaderboard. The remaining 30% that joined the upper portion of the standings were new entrants to the competition. All and all, this indicates that there is less “luck” involved in fantasy prognostication than some may think.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Top Experts by Position</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In addition to the overall results listed above, we also want to briefly highlight the top rated experts by position. Congratulations to the following experts for nailing down the best accuracy scores:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 582px; height: 172px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #d4e8f2; border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Highest Rated Experts by Position</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #d4e8f2; border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Position</strong></td>
<td style="background-color: #d4e8f2; border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="background-color: #d4e8f2; border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> QB</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com" target="_new">Kevin Hanson &#8211; EDSFootball</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 70.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> RB</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.cbssports.com" target="_new">Dave Richard &#8211; CBS Sports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> WR</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://fantasyfootball.com/" target="_new">Mike Woellert &#8211; FantasyFootball.com</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> TE</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://walterfootball.com/" target="_new">Walter Cherepinsky &#8211; Walter Football</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> K</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.profootballweekly.com/" target="_new">Pat Fitzmaurice &#8211; ProFootballWeekly</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 58.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> DST</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fftoday.com/" target="_new">Mike Krueger &#8211; FFToday</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 60.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> IDP</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.profootballfocus.com/" target="_new">Ross Miles &#8211; Pro Football Focus</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 55.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This officially wraps up 2011’s accuracy contest. Congratulations again to Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) for coming out on top as the highest rated expert. Kudos also go out to the entire field of experts that participated. These experts are among the best the fantasy industry has to offer and the tight gap between the accuracy scores shows how highly competitive the contest is each season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Lastly, thanks to everyone who followed the competition throughout the season. We appreciate your support and look forward to running the accuracy contest again next year. In the meantime, you can view the full standings both <a title="2011 Overall Standings" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">overall</a> &amp; <a title="2011 Standings by Position" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/?sort=RB" target="_blank">by position</a> to see how the entire field rated. Thanks!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Which Fantasy Experts Like to Gamble?</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/ard-vs-pay/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/ard-vs-pay/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Dec 2011 09:33:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ARD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Average Rank Deviation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consensus Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PAY]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=15490</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m not going to lie, I like gambling (legally, of course). I just returned from a birthday weekend in Vegas and I&#8217;ll be heading back to Sin City in a couple weeks for a fantasy sports conference (to give out our accuracy awards, and to give back the money I took from Caesars). For me, . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/ard-vs-pay/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/thumb_15490.jpg" alt="" title="thumb_15490" width="140" height="106" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-15494" />I&#8217;m not going to lie, I like gambling (legally, of course). I just returned from a birthday weekend in Vegas and I&#8217;ll be heading back to Sin City in a couple weeks for a <a href="http://www.fsta.org/" title="Fantasy Sports Trade Association" target="_blank">fantasy sports conference</a> (to give out our accuracy awards, and to give back the money I took from Caesars). For me, not much beats the thrill of putting money down on a 37-1 long-shot&#8230;and hitting.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The same holds true for fantasy football. I&#8217;ve been known to get a little cute with my <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/start/" title="Figure out who you should start" target="_blank">start/sit decisions</a> just to be able to say I started the right guy when everyone told me to start the other guy. I also usually keep a list of my preseason bold predictions so I can shove it in my league&#8217;s face if a few of them come true. Yep, I&#8217;m <em>that</em> guy.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Hitting and missing on <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/bold-predictions-for-the-fantasy-playoffs/" title="Bold Predictions for the Fantasy Playoffs" target="_blank">bold predictions</a> and sleeper starts got me thinking about how an expert&#8217;s accuracy score relates to his tendency to &#8220;gamble&#8221; with player rankings that don&#8217;t conform to the consensus opinion. To help analyze this, we&#8217;ve come up with a measurement called <strong>ARD (Average Rank Deviation)</strong>. ARD measures how different an expert&#8217;s rankings are compared to our ECR (<a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/qb.php" title="ECR" target="_blank">Expert Consensus Ranking</a>). ARD&#8217;s calculation is described in more detail at the end of this post.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
A number of you have asked us to share how accurate our ECR is. We&#8217;ve checked in on this a few times, most recently in <a href="http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/16/follow-the-consensus-to-win-your-fantasy-championship/" title="Fifth Down Post on Consensus Rankings" target="_blank">this guest post</a> at The New York Times. Bottom line is that our consensus rankings are very accurate. ECR has a way of minimizing the impact of individual rogue predictions that may be as brutal as they are bold.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Since ECR tends to be accurate, it’s logical to assume that experts whose rankings closely resemble ECR would have relatively higher accuracy as well. Based on the data below that compares ARD to PAY (<a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" title="Fantasy Football Accuracy Scores" target="_blank">Prediction Accuracy Yield</a>) for each expert, there is indeed a strong correlation. The higher your ARD is, the lower your PAY tends to be. In other words, the more you gamble the less accurate you are.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AmHzLb9LrgTIdGphQ2txWjd5Rk9WTFBpUlNKd0JJLXc&#038;oid=0&#038;zx=5thy8nlng2b" /><br />
&nbsp;<br />
Each dot in the scatter chart represents an expert. The cluster in the bottom right corner (high deviation; low accuracy) is made up of primarily computer based projection sites. It&#8217;s nice to know the humans beat out the computers for a change!<br />
&nbsp;<br />
While the data shows an overall inverse relationship between ARD and PAY, we should keep in mind that there&#8217;s very little difference in accuracy scores among the top experts. We&#8217;ll be reporting on the winner of our Most Accurate Expert competition very shortly; it&#8217;s amazing how razor thin the difference is between a large number of experts. Which begs the question, of the experts with higher than average ARD, which of them score the highest for accuracy?<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Experts with 61% PAY or better through week 15 that have higher than average ARD:<br />
Sigmund Bloom &#8211; FootballGuys | ARD: 4.38 | PAY: 61.9%<br />
Alessandro Miglio &#8211; ProFootballFocus | ARD: 3.75 | PAY: 61.0%<br />
Brad Evans &#8211; Yahoo! Sports | ARD: 3.59 | PAY: 61.1%<br />
Staff Rankings &#8211; FFToolbox | ARD: 3.56 | PAY: 62.1%<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Here are the ARDs for experts with at least 14 weeks of tracked rankings. The experts at the top of the list tend to <em>agree</em> with our ECR the most. The experts at the bottom of the list tend to <em>disagree</em> with our ECR the most. Each expert&#8217;s PAY through week 15 is included as a reference point. The average ARD from this group of experts is 3.5 and the median is 3.2.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Scroll down to see the experts that like to gamble the most.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<iframe width='400' height='560' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&#038;hl=en_US&#038;key=0AmHzLb9LrgTIdFVNQzNscE8wTDJ5bW54OFJPc20yV2c&#038;single=true&#038;gid=0&#038;output=html&#038;widget=true'></iframe><br />
&nbsp;<br />
I should note that &#8220;gambling&#8221; may not be the best term to use since an expert&#8217;s player rankings reflect his own opinion (perhaps not a gamble in his eye). If the expert tends to disagree with our consensus, I&#8217;m classifying it as a gamble on his part, even if it&#8217;s not something he’s consciously trying to do.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
ARD’s calculation is pretty straightforward. We compare where each expert ranks a player vs. where that player is ranked in our ECR. We take the absolute value of this rank difference and sum it across the minimum ranks we require at each position (e.g. top 40 RBs). We then divide the sum by the total rank spots (40 for RB), and average this number across the four main positions (QB, RB, WR &#038; TE). The resulting number is the Average Rank Deviation. The larger an expert’s ARD, the greater the difference between his weekly player rankings and our ECR. An ARD of zero would mean that the expert&#8217;s rankings are identical to our ECR.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
This was probably pretty interesting data to a few of you and not-so-interesting to a lot of you. What I&#8217;m excited about is that we&#8217;re just scratching the surface of what can be done with the mountain of data we&#8217;re collecting. Once we dive even deeper into rank and accuracy deviations for specific players, I&#8217;m confident we&#8217;ll find some very useful data on things like over and under valued players, experts that tend to have certain players pegged better than others, and an objective way to measure &#8220;sleeper accuracy&#8221; across experts.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
It&#8217;s a good thing we have an off-season to crunch the numbers. Stay tuned&#8230;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Week 15’s Most Accurate Experts</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts-week-15/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts-week-15/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Dec 2011 19:12:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CBS Sports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[numberFire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Lester Lester's Legends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Rowan TOFantasySports]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=15355</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Everything is on the line this weekend for fantasy owners. Bragging rights, pride, shiny trophies &#8211; you name it &#8211; are all at stake with league titles up for grabs. The same is true for the experts in our accuracy competition. They’ve battled it out for 15 weeks and we’re just 1 week away from . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts-week-15/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-12237" title="Accuracy3" src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/Accuracy.jpg" alt="" width="145" height="110" />Everything is on the line this weekend for fantasy owners. Bragging rights, pride, shiny trophies &#8211; you name it &#8211; are all at stake with league titles up for grabs. The same is true for the experts in our accuracy competition. They’ve battled it out for 15 weeks and we’re just 1 week away from crowning 2011’s most accurate expert. And with a razor-thin margin separating the <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">top prognosticators</a>, we should be in for an exciting conclusion to the competition.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look back at week 15’s most accurate experts. We’ll break down the top 10 experts (out of 74) to see who gave the best advice. You can also view the <a title="Week 15 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">full list</a> to see how the entire field rated.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span id="more-15355"></span></p>
<h3><strong>Week 15 Leaderboard </strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 580px; height: 234px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Week 15 Accuracy Scores*</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Rank</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  1.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://numberfire.com/" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; numberFire</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 66.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  2.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; CBS Sports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  3.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.tofantasysports.com/" target="_new">Tommy Rowan &#8211; TOFantasySports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  4.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://lesterslegends.com/" target="_new">Ryan Lester &#8211; Lester&#8217;s Legends</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  5.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantazzle.com/" target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; Fantazzle</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  6.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.thefantasyfix.com/" target="_new">Alan Harrison &#8211; TheFantasyFix</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  7.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://espn.go.com/" target="_new">Tristan Cockcroft &#8211; ESPN</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 61.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  8.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://nflsoup.com/" target="_new">Keet Bailey &#8211; NFL Soup</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 61.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  9.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/" target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; FantasyFootballCafe</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 61.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  10.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.scoutpro.com/" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; scoutPRO</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 61.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a title="Week 15 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank"><em>*See how all 74 experts ranked for the week</em></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Notes:</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Congrats to <a title="numberFire" href="http://www.numberfire.com/" target="_blank">numberFire</a> for producing the week’s most accurate projections. NF was on-target across the positions we track, with their best picks coming at RB (#1 rank) and TE (#3 rank). Their RB predictions were notable for outperforming the expert consensus on a trio of players that far exceeded expectations: <strong>C.J. Spiller</strong>, <strong>Reggie Bush</strong> &amp; <strong>Ryan Mathews</strong>. Spiller, in particular, was the week’s #1 RB (167 yards, 2 TDs) and numberFire had him slotted 10 spots higher than the field of experts.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Another set of projections that delivered in week 15 came courtesy of <a title="CBS Sports" href="http://www.cbssports.com/" target="_blank">CBS Sports</a>. CBS finished the week 2<sup>nd</sup> overall on the strength of their predictions at QB (#2 rank), RB (#8 rank) and TE (#10 rank). At QB, they made the correct decision by slotting <strong>Drew Brees</strong> as the week’s top QB. That may sound like an obvious pick but it wasn’t an easy call given how well a certain QB in Green Bay has played this season. CBS also took an unpopular stance by placing <strong>Tony Romo </strong>as a top 3 QB, ahead of a number of top tier players including Cam Newton. That proved to be a wise decision as Romo turned in one of his best fantasy performances of the season (249 yards passing, 4 TDs).</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>It stands to reason that one of the top WR experts from week 15 (<a title="Tommy Rowan - TOFantasySports" href="http://www.tofantasysports.com/" target="_blank">Tommy Rowan – TOFantasySports</a>) works for a site that pays homage to Terrell Owens. TO would be happy to know that Rowan gave plenty of attention to the week’s top studs. He specifically hit the mark by outranking the expert consensus for the top 5 fantasy performers. This includes expected studs such as <strong>Calvin Johnson (WR #1)</strong> &amp; <strong>Roddy White (WR #2) </strong>as well as surprise players like <strong>Lance Moore (WR #28)</strong>. Rowan also had one of the highest rankings (WR #12) for <strong>Julio Jones</strong>. Jones lived up to that lofty billing by posting top 10 fantasy numbers (91 yards, 1 TD) for the second week in a row.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>As a fixture in our accuracy contest for the past 2 seasons, <a title="Ryan Lester - Lester's Legends" href="http://lesterslegends.com/" target="_blank">Ryan Lester (Lester’s Legends)</a> has had plenty of success in the competition. This past week, he came through with a well-rounded showing across many of the positions we track: WR (#8 rank), RB (#11 rank), TE (#9 rank). Besides pegging the typical top WRs – <strong>Calvin Johnson (WR #1)</strong> &amp; <strong>Roddy White (WR #3</strong>) – Lester also had a good read on several overachievers. His ranking (WR #23) for <strong>Lance Moore</strong> was higher than all but one expert and he was one of only a few pundits that considered <strong>Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR #34)</strong> worthy of Flex status. Heyward-Bey ultimately had one of the best games of his career (155 yards, 1 TD). In addition to his WR picks, Lester was a believer in one of the top RB studs, <strong>Reggie Bush (RB #8). </strong>He also notably downgraded <strong>Adrian Peterson (RB #11) </strong>and that was the right call as AP’s role was limited in his return to action (just 10 carries).</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>That wraps up this week’s accuracy report. Check back next week as we unveil 2011’s most accurate fantasy football expert. There are several experts with a shot to win the top honor so a lot will be riding on their week 16 predictions.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>If you’re eager to make your own predictions, be sure to enter this week’s <a title="Beat the Expert - Week 16" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">Beat the Expert Contest</a>. You’ll have the opportunity to go up against the best performers in the contest this season: Andy Behrens (<a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/" target="_blank">Yahoo! Sports</a>), Justin Sablich (<a href="http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) &amp; Chris Wesseling (<a href="http://rotoworld.com/" target="_blank">Rotoworld</a>). There are $1,000 in prizes up for grabs as well as an extra $10 for everyone who beats all 3 experts. Prizes are courtesy of our sponsor, <a title="FanDuel" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">FanDuel</a>. Good luck!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Week 14&#8242;s Most Accurate Experts</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts-week-14/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts-week-14/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Dec 2011 17:58:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Sabino SI.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FantasyFootballNerd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FFToolbox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keet Bailey NFL Soup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Week 14]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=15055</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the fantasy playoffs underway, there’s no better time than now to get a “helping hand” when setting your lineup. The good news is that while the stakes are rising for your team, they’re also increasing for the experts that hand out advice. That’s because our accuracy competition is in its stretch run and the . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts-week-14/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-12237" title="Accuracy3" src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/Accuracy.jpg" alt="" width="138" height="109" />With the fantasy playoffs underway, there’s no better time than now to get a “helping hand” when setting your lineup. The good news is that while the stakes are rising for your team, they’re also increasing for the experts that hand out advice. That’s because our accuracy competition is in its stretch run and the standings at the top could hardly be closer. If you think that’s an exaggeration, <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">take a look at how things stack up for the season</a>. The tight race means the experts have extra incentive (as if they needed it) to make sure they’re providing the best possible advice over the next few weeks.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>With that in mind, let’s take a look at who gave the most accurate advice in week 14. We’ll break down the top 10 experts (out of 74). You can also view the <a title="Week 14 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">full list</a> to see how the entire field rated.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span id="more-15055"></span></p>
<h3><strong>Week 14 Leaderboard</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 582px; height: 231px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Week 14 Accuracy Scores*</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Rank</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 1.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fftoolbox.com/" target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; FFToolbox</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 2.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantasyfootballnerd.com/" target="_new">Site Rankings &#8211; FantasyFootballNerd</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 3.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/" target="_new">David Sabino &#8211; SI.com</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 4.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://nflsoup.com/" target="_new">Keet Bailey &#8211; NFL Soup</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 5.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.thefantasyfix.com/" target="_new">Alan Harrison &#8211; TheFantasyFix</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 6.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/" target="_new">Ken Moody &#8211; Dynasty League Football</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 61.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 7.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com " target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; Chinstrap Ninjas </a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 61.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 8.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.profootballfocus.com/" target="_new">Jeff Ratcliffe &#8211; Pro Football Focus</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 61.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 9.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://espn.go.com/" target="_new">Matthew Berry &#8211; ESPN</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 60.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 10.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://lesterslegends.com/" target="_new">Ryan Lester &#8211; Lester&#8217;s Legends</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 60.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a title="Week 14 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank"><em>*See how all 74 experts ranked for the week</em></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Notes:</strong></h3>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The staff at <a title="FFToolbox" href="http://fftoolbox.com/" target="_blank">FFToolbox</a> stepped up for their readers involved in week 14 playoff match-ups. As the week’s most accurate site, their advice was strong across the positions we track. This was especially the case at RB (rank #2) and WR (#6). One of FFToolbox’s best picks was their decision to recommend <strong>Ryan Grant </strong>as a viable starting option (RB #27). Heading into Sunday’s game, Grant’s TD tally for the season was the same amount as the guy wearing the cheesehead in section 346 of Lambeau Field. It’s no surprise, therefore, that the rest of the field was low (RB #37) on him despite James Starks’ absence. Credit goes to the FFToolbox crew for spotting that Grant (98 yards, 2 TDs)<strong> </strong>may finally break out against the struggling Raiders. At the WR position, they were ahead of the curve for a trio of players that outperformed expectations: <strong>Marques Colston</strong>, <strong>Julio Jones</strong> &amp; <strong>Laurent Robinson</strong>. Each player was a top 5 fantasy performer that FFToolbox had rated above the expert consensus. Those picks helped solidify their spot as the most accurate site for the week.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>The <a title="FantasyFootballNerd" href="http://www.fantasyfootballnerd.com/" target="_blank">FantasyFootballNerd</a> cracks the top 5 for the third week in a row. No other site has pulled off that trifecta this season so it’s quite an achievement. The Nerd accomplished that feat on the strength of its WR predictions, which rated 4<sup>th</sup> best among the experts. The site was particularly good at discovering some of the week’s best sleepers. For instance, <strong>Nate Washington</strong>, <strong>Jabar Gaffney</strong> &amp; <strong>Doug Baldwin</strong> were all top 10 fantasy WRs and the Nerd had each player ranked at least 12 spots ahead of the expert consensus. In Washington’s case, the gap was 21 rank spots (WR #23). That’s a big time hit for a player that had barely 5 fantasy points <em>combined</em> in his past two outings. The FFNerd also delivered at the RB position (#7 rank). Its best call was slotting <strong>Shonn Greene</strong> as a top 10 RB. Only a handful of experts liked Greene as much and they were all correct as Greene stayed hot for a consecutive week (187 yards, 1 TD). The Nerd also had the foresight to rank <strong>Toby Gerhart (RB #21)</strong> as a solid RB2 candidate. There had been some questions about Gerhart’s ability but he was productive for a 2<sup>nd</sup> week in a row (109 yards, 1 TD).</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Another expert that hit the mark just in time for the fantasy playoffs is <a title="SI.com" href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/" target="_blank">David Sabino (SI.com)</a>. Sabino was a master at providing RB advice in week 14, cruising to the highest accuracy score at the position. It should therefore come as no surprise that he was a believer in the week’s top performer, <strong>Maurice Jones-Drew</strong>. Sabino had Jones-Drew rated as his 2<sup>nd</sup> best RB and MJD more than delivered to the tune of 136 total yards &amp; 4 TDs. He also had a read on several other top 10 performers including <strong>Shonn Greene (RB #10)</strong>, <strong>Steven Jackson (RB #11)</strong> &amp; <strong>Ryan Grant (RB #25)</strong>. When it came to Jackson, most experts expected him to struggle against a respectable Seahawks’ run defense. Sabino went out on a limb by ranking SJax 8 spots ahead of the consensus (RB #19). That was a leap of faith for a player who hadn’t scored a TD in 6 games. It ultimately paid off as Jackson found the end zone &amp; netted 123 total yards.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>If you were looking for WR advice in week 14, the rankings of <a title="NFL Soup" href="http://nflsoup.com/" target="_blank">Keet Bailey (NFL Soup)</a> would have been a good spot to visit. Whether it was pegging the studs or identifying the top underachievers, Bailey was on top of his game. Perhaps his best pick was slotting <strong>Julio Jones</strong> at WR #13 – a full 11 spots ahead of the expert consensus. That represented a surefire recommendation to start Jones and those who did received a big payoff (104 yards, 2 TDs). Bailey also spotted a solid sleeper performance from <strong>Jabar Gaffney</strong>. Gaffney was rated as just the 39<sup>th</sup> best WR by the field but Bailey slotted him 17 spots higher (WR #22). Gaffney rewarded that faith by exploiting NE’s suspect secondary en route to posting top 10 fantasy numbers (92 yards, 1 TD). On the other end of the spectrum, one of Bailey’s better downgrades was <strong>Vincent Jackson</strong>. His ranking for Jackson (WR #16) was lower than all but 1 expert and was a good piece of advice considering that VJax (55 yards, 0 TDs) struggled to get going vs. the Bills.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>That closes out this week’s accuracy report. As a reminder, the results for the entire field of experts are available over at the <a title="Week 14 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">accuracy section</a> of our site. You can see how the experts rank for the week and the season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>If you’re eager to make your own predictions, be sure to check out our weekly <a title="Beat the Expert - Week 15" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">Beat the Expert Contest</a>. This week’s “expert” is the FantasyPros staff &#8211; if you think you know more than us, here’s your shot to prove it. The contest is completely free with a $1,000 prize pool courtesy of our sponsor, <a title="FanDuel" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">FanDuel</a>. Good luck!</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Week 13’s Most Accurate Experts</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts-week-13/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts-week-13/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Dec 2011 17:47:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FFNerd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gregg Rosenthal Rotoworld]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Moore 4for4]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sablich Brothers The New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Week 13]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=14787</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you’re a fan of high scoring then this past week was right in your comfort zone. With teams lighting up the scoreboard around the league (sorry, Rams fans), a whopping 22 players posted 20+ fantasy points (STD scoring). That total is only surpassed by one other week this season. To put things in perspective, . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/12/most-accurate-experts-week-13/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-12237" title="Accuracy3" src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/Accuracy.jpg" alt="" width="146" height="114" />If you’re a fan of high scoring then this past week was right in your comfort zone. With teams lighting up the scoreboard around the league (<a title="Rams vs. 49ers" href="http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=311204025" target="_blank">sorry, Rams fans</a>), a whopping 22 players posted 20+ fantasy points (<a title="STD Scoring Settings" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/scoring-settings/" target="_blank">STD scoring</a>). That total is only surpassed by one other week this season. To put things in perspective, you know there were some offensive fireworks when a player (Rob Gronkowski) scores 3 TDs and he doesn’t even crack the week’s top 10 fantasy performers.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This means there was a great opportunity for the experts to deliver some big hits or misses with their week 13 picks. So, which experts made the most accurate calls? We’ll take a look at the top 10 (out of 75) accuracy leaders. You can also view the <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">YTD standings</a> to see where everyone stacks up for the season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span id="more-14787"></span></p>
<h3><strong>Week 13 Leaderboard</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 585px; height: 232px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Week 13 Accuracy Scores*</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Rank</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 1.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/" target="_new">Sablich Brothers &#8211; The New York Times</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 73.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 2.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.4for4.com/" target="_new">Josh Moore &#8211; 4for4.com</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 70.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 3.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.rotoworld.com/" target="_new">Gregg Rosenthal &#8211; Rotoworld</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 70.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 4.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantasyfootballnerd.com/" target="_new">Site Rankings &#8211; FantasyFootballNerd</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 70.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 5.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.profootballfocus.com/" target="_new">Alessandro Miglio &#8211; Pro Football Focus</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 70.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 6.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://thefakefootball.com/" target="_new">Greg Smith &#8211; The Fake Football</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 69.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 7.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://espn.go.com/" target="_new">Staff Composite &#8211; ESPN</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 69.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 8.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.scoutpro.com/" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; scoutPRO</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 69.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 9.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com " target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; Chinstrap Ninjas </a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 69.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 10.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.tagsfantasyfootball.com " target="_new">Mike Tagliere &#8211; TagsFantasyFootball</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 69.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a title="Week 13 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank"><em>*See how all 75 experts ranked for the week</em></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Notes:</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Congrats to the <a title="Sablich Brothers - The New York Times" href="http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/" target="_blank">Sablich brothers (The New York Times)</a> for producing week 13’s most accurate rankings. As mentioned, this was a “boom or bust” slate of games and the Sablich bros certainly hit it big for their readers. Their PAY™ of 73.1% was the 2<sup>nd</sup> highest weekly accuracy score of the season. Leading the way for the Sablichs was their RB picks, which rated #1 overall. Their recipe for success was pretty simple: Peg the top studs. Specifically, the Sablich brothers ranked 9 of the top 10 fantasy RBs as well or better than the expert consensus. That includes slotting <strong>Chris Johnson</strong> as the 3<sup>rd</sup> ranked RB on their list. This was a risky pick given Johnson’s inconsistency but it turned out to be a big hit as CJ rolled up 153 yards rushing and 2 TDs. Besides nailing the peak performers, the brothers also get credit for spotting several underachievers. Their rankings for <strong>Steven Jackson (RB #25)</strong> and <strong>DeAngelo Williams (RB #24) </strong>were each on the lower end of the field and both players had difficulty cracking the week’s top 50 fantasy backs.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>It was a big week for <a title="Josh Moore - 4for4" href="http://www.4for4.com/index.php" target="_blank">Josh Moore (4for4)</a> as he came in 2<sup>nd</sup> place and that bumped him up to 1<sup>st</sup> overall in our <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">Year-to-Date standings</a>. If you’re looking for some proof that there is indeed skill involved in fantasy football prognostication, Moore provides a good example. He finished in <a title="2010 Accuracy Results" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/#2010" target="_blank">the top 5 of the competition last year</a> and is ahead of the entire pack this season. This past week, Moore made his best predictions at RB (#2 rank). He was one of only a few experts to correctly rate <strong>Marshawn Lynch </strong>as a top 5 back and he was also ahead of the curve at ranking several other key performers such as <strong>Shonn Greene (RB #19)</strong> and <strong>Roy Helu (RB #18)</strong>. On top of this, he correctly spotted that <strong>Michael Turner</strong> would be in for a tough outing against Houston and downgraded him 7 spots (RB #17) vs. the consensus. Moore also finished in the top 10 for his WR picks to round out a successful week of picking fantasy outcomes.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>For the 5<sup>th</sup> time this season, the <a title="Rotoworld" href="http://rotoworld.com/" target="_blank">Rotoworld</a> duo of Gregg Rosenthal &amp; Chris Wesseling find themselves in the weekly top 5. That’s the highest count for anyone in the field and it’s helped the pair rank 3<sup>rd</sup> in our YTD standings. Above all else, Rosenthal &amp; Wesseling hit the mark with their WR picks in week 13. They were one of just a few sites to give <strong>Michael Crabtree</strong> WR2 status (WR #23). Crabtree made good on that prediction by netting his best output of the season (top 10 numbers). The Rotoworld duo was also notably low on several players that failed to live up to expectations: <strong>Laurent Robinson (WR #18)</strong>, <strong>Brandon Lloyd (WR #26)</strong> &amp; <strong>Eric Decker (WR #32)</strong>. Each player was slotted at least 6 spots below the expert consensus and in all cases the players produced at worse than a WR3 level.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-12/" target="_blank">Last week’s accuracy champ</a>, the <a title="FantasyFootballNerd" href="http://www.fantasyfootballnerd.com/" target="_blank">FFNerd</a>, checks in with an impressive follow-up as the 4<sup>th</sup> most accurate site. The Nerd had one of the better calls of the week by ranking <strong>Percy Harvin </strong>as a top 10 receiver. That ranking (WR #8) was 10 spots above the expert consensus. Harvin made sure the pick paid off by torching the Broncos (156 yards receiving, 2 TDs) en route to finishing the week as the #1 fantasy player. The site also did well with an unpopular decision to slot <strong>A.J. Green</strong> as the 9<sup>th</sup> best WR. Only a handful of other experts had Green ranked as high, most likely due to a difficult match-up (@ PIT). Green produced a top 10 fantasy output (102 total yards, 1 TD) despite the competition, making the Nerd right on the mark with its prediction. Picks like these helped the site finish the week with the 2<sup>nd </sup>best WR accuracy score. The Nerd scored another nice hit with its pick (RB #11) of <strong>Roy Helu</strong>. Only 4 sites were higher on Helu in what turned out to be a consecutive 100 yard/1 TD performance for the rookie runner. The prediction played a key role in the FFNerd’s #9 RB rating for the week.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>That wraps up this week’s accuracy report. As a reminder, the results for the entire field of experts are available over at the <a title="Week 13 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">accuracy section </a>of our site. You can see how the experts rank for the week and the season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>If you’re eager to make your own predictions, be sure to check out this week’s <a title="Beat the Expert - Week 13" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">Beat the Expert Contest vs. Sara Holladay (The FFLibrarian)</a>. The contest is completely free with a $1,000 prize pool courtesy of our sponsor, <a title="FanDuel" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">FanDuel</a>. Good luck!</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Week 12’s Most Accurate Experts</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-12/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-12/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov 2011 17:10:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fantasy Football Freaks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FantasyFootballNerd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scoutPRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Week 12]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yahoo Sports]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=14555</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With ¾ of the fantasy season in the books, our race to determine 2011’s Most Accurate Expert is heating up. While a few blowouts in week 12 may have featured some ultimate garbage time stat padding (we’re looking at you, Vince Young), the experts in our competition are facing no such luxury. The accuracy contest . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-12/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-12237" title="Accuracy3" src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/Accuracy.jpg" alt="" width="169" height="134" />With ¾ of the fantasy season in the books, our race to determine 2011’s Most Accurate Expert is heating up. While a few blowouts in week 12 may have featured some ultimate garbage time stat padding (we’re looking at you, Vince Young), the experts in our competition are facing no such luxury. The accuracy contest is so close that only <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">.2% points separate 1<sup>st</sup> place from 5<sup>th</sup> place</a>. Simply put, we’re heading into the “4<sup>th</sup> quarter” of a competition that has anything but the makings of a blowout.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>With that in mind, let’s take a look at who delivered the best advice in week 12. We’ll go through the top 10 experts (out of 76). You can also view the <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">YTD standings</a>, which feature a shakeup atop the leaderboard.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span id="more-14555"></span></p>
<h3><strong>Week 12 Leaderboard</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 580px; height: 236px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Week 12 Accuracy Scores*</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Rank</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 1.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantasyfootballnerd.com/" target="_new">Site Rankings &#8211; FantasyFootballNerd</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 68.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 2.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantasyfootballfreaks.com" target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; Fantasy Football Freaks</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 67.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 3.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.scoutpro.com/" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; scoutPRO</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 65.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 4.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy" target="_new">Staff Composite &#8211; Yahoo! Sports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 5.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com " target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; Chinstrap Ninjas </a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 6.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy" target="_new">Scott Pianowski &#8211; Yahoo! Sports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 7.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.profootballfocus.com/" target="_new">Mike Clay &#8211; Pro Football Focus</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 8.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com/" target="_new">Derek Lofland &#8211; FFManiaxs</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 9.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://espn.go.com/" target="_new">Christopher Harris &#8211; ESPN</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 10.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy" target="_new">Brad Evans &#8211; Yahoo! Sports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a title="Week 12 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank"><em>*See how all 76 experts ranked for the week</em></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Notes</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Congratulations to <a title="FantasyFootballNerd" href="http://www.fantasyfootballnerd.com/" target="_blank">FantasyFootballNerd</a> for serving up the most accurate rankings in week 12. This marks the 2<sup>nd</sup> time this season that the site has finished in first place. Their rankings were especially strong at RB, rating #1 out of all experts monitored. The Nerd’s best pick was having the week’s biggest stud, <strong>Beanie Wells</strong>, slotted inside their top 10 RBs. Only a handful of other experts were as high on Beanie, undoubtedly due to his injury concerns. Besides hitting on additional top performers such as <strong>Chris Johnson (RB #10)</strong> &amp; <strong>Cedric Benson (RB #12)</strong>, the FFNerd was also ahead of the curve in downgrading several of the week’s notable underachievers: <strong>Frank Gore</strong> &amp; <strong>Michael Turner</strong>. Gore was slotted as a low end RB2 play (RB #22) while Turner was placed outside of RB1 status (RB #14) despite being a consensus top 5 back. Neither player ultimately cracked the week’s top 34 RBs so the downgrades should have helped owners who heeded the advice.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The staff at <a title="Fantasy Football Freaks" href="http://www.fantasyfootballfreaks.com/" target="_blank">Fantasy Football Freaks</a> turned in a 2<sup>nd</sup> place showing based on the strength of their predictions at WR (#1 rank) and RB (#5 rank). The breakdown is fairly simple at the WR position: The FF Freaks were successful at pegging the week’s peak performers. Specifically, they managed to outrank the expert consensus for 8 of the top 10 fantasy players. That includes correctly spotting <strong>Victor Cruz</strong> as a top 10 WR as well as ranking another stud, <strong>Lance Moore</strong>,<strong> </strong>a full 14 slots (WR #31) ahead of the field. The Freaks also showed a surprising lack of confidence in <strong>Steve Smith (CAR)</strong> &#8211; the field’s WR #1 – by slotting him as just their WR #11, despite his seemingly favorable match-up @ IND. They were onto something with the pick as Smith produced a disappointing outing (3 catches, 68 yards). Meanwhile, for their RB predictions, the FF Freaks delivered by identifying both <strong>Chris Johnson</strong> &amp; <strong>Marshawn Lynch</strong> as top 10 backs.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Another site that was on-target with their picks is <a title="scoutPRO" href="http://www.scoutpro.com/" target="_blank">scoutPRO</a>. Their projections system generated the week’s 3<sup>rd</sup> best advice, in large part due to its WR predictions. ScoutPro’s biggest hit came from projecting <strong>Reggie Wayne</strong> as the 20<sup>th</sup> best receiver &#8211; 26 spots ahead of the expert consensus. Wayne rewarded that faith by posting his best output of the season (5 catches, 122 yds, 1 TD). They also came through by slotting <strong>Laurent Robinson</strong> 10 spots ahead of the field at WR #13. Robinson responded by feasting on MIA’s secondary to the tune of 2 TDs en route to earning top 5 fantasy numbers. It didn’t hurt scoutPro’s cause either that no other site took more of a chance in ranking <strong>Eric Decker (WR #19)</strong>. They wound up exactly pegging his rank at #19.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>It stands to reason that the <a title="Yahoo! Sports" href="http://sports.yahoo.com/" target="_blank">Yahoo! Staff Composite</a> would rate well given that two of its experts (Scott Pianowski &amp; Brad Evans) rank in the top 10 themselves. As far as Pianowski is concerned, he made several of the week’s best calls at RB. Most notably, he was the only expert in the field to give <strong>Roy Helu </strong>RB2 status (RB #23). That was without a doubt a risky pick but it paid it off tremendously with Helu breaking out for 162 yards and a TD. When it comes to Evans, he’s known for taking gambles with his predictions and this past week was no exception. While most experts didn’t even like <strong>Vince Young</strong> as a top 10 QB, Evans was confident enough to slot Young in his top 5. Whether aided by garbage time stats or not, this was a big hit as Young tallied 400 yards through the air. Evans also gets credit for a nice sleeper prediction by having <strong>Donald Brown </strong>rated<strong> </strong>higher (RB #15) than all but one expert. All told, these picks served as key contributions to the top 10 rating for the Yahoo! Staff.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>That wraps up this week’s accuracy report. As a reminder, the results for the entire field of experts are available over at the <a title="Week 12 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">accuracy section </a>of our site. You can see how the experts rank for the week and the season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>If you’re eager to make your own predictions, be sure to check out this week’s Beat <a title="Beat the Expert - Week 12" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">the Expert Contest vs. Melissa Jacobs (The Football Girl)</a>. The contest is completely free with a $1,000 prize pool courtesy of our sponsor, <a title="FanDuel" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">FanDuel</a>. Good luck!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Week 11&#8242;s Most Accurate Experts</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-11/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-11/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Nov 2011 18:33:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greg Smith The Fake Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Woellert FantasyFootball.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ross Miles Pro Football Focus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RosterWatch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Week 11]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=14371</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With only 5 weeks left in the fantasy season, we’ve officially reached crunch time. The playoffs are on the horizon and it goes without saying that every decision owners make carries extra weight. &#160; While the stakes are increasing on your fake football fields, they’re also going up for the experts in our accuracy contest. . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-11/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-12237" title="Accuracy3" src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/Accuracy.jpg" alt="" width="158" height="127" />With only 5 weeks left in the fantasy season, we’ve officially reached crunch time. The playoffs are on the horizon and it goes without saying that every decision owners make carries extra weight.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>While the stakes are increasing on your fake football fields, they’re also going up for the experts in our accuracy contest. A quick glance at our <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">YTD leaderboard</a> shows the standings are ultra tight, with the title of &#8220;Most Accurate Expert&#8221; up for grabs. That means the pundits have more incentive than ever to make sure they’re giving you the best advice down the stretch.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>So which experts did the best job with their week 11 predictions? We’ll break it down by reviewing the top 10 (out of 74 experts).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span id="more-14371"></span></p>
<h3><strong>Week 11 Leaderboard</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 582px; height: 232px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Week 11 Accuracy Scores*</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: left;"><strong> Rank</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: left;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: left;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 1.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.profootballfocus.com/" target="_new">Ross Miles &#8211; Pro Football Focus</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 66.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 2.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://fantasyfootball.com/" target="_new">Mike Woellert &#8211; FantasyFootball.com</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 3.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://thefakefootball.com/" target="_new">Greg Smith &#8211; The Fake Football</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 4.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://rosterwatch.com/" target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; RosterWatch</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 5.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy" target="_new">Scott Pianowski &#8211; Yahoo! Sports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 6.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://espn.go.com/" target="_new">Tristan Cockcroft &#8211; ESPN</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 7.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://numberfire.com/" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; numberFire</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 8.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.rotoworld.com/" target="_new">Gregg Rosenthal &#8211; Rotoworld</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 9.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com " target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; Chinstrap Ninjas </a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">10.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantasypros911.com/" target="_new">Paul Greco &#8211; FantasyPros911</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a title="Week 11 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank"><em>*See how all 74 experts ranked for the week</em></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Notes:</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>There’s no doubting who delivered the most accurate advice in week 11. By finishing in the top 5 for 3 (QB, RB, WR) of the 4 positions that factor into our overall scoring, <a title="Ross Miles - Pro Football Focus" href="http://www.profootballfocus.com/" target="_blank">Ross Miles (Pro Football Focus)</a> cruised to the weekly title. In fact, Miles is the only expert this season to accomplish the “top 5 across 3 positions” feat for a single week. His best predictions came at the RB position where he ranked #1 and delivered the top sleeper pick of the week. That pick was the decision to slot Lions RB, <strong>Kevin Smith</strong>, higher than any other expert (RB #25). We can only hope Smith owners followed the advice since Smith put up the best fantasy performance of the week (201 total yards, 3 TDs). The quality predictions didn’t stop there for Miles. He also had the foresight NOT to rank <strong>Willis McGahee</strong>, undoubtedly due to injury concerns. McGahee himself may have been wise to heed that advice since he was kryptonite for both fantasy owners (-.2 points) and his own team (costly fumble). Miles also gets credit for being one of only two experts to rank <strong>Vincent Jackson </strong>as a top 5 WR. V-Jax’s breakthrough game (165 yards receiving, 1 TD) was a key contributor to Miles’ lofty WR rating.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a title="Mike Woellert - FantasyFootball.com" href="http://fantasyfootball.com/" target="_blank">Mike Woellert (FantasyFootball.com)</a> makes an appearance in the top 5 for an impressive 3<sup>rd</sup> time this season. Woellert did particularly well this past week with his WR predictions. Specifically, he was one of just a handful of experts to slot <strong>Jordy Nelson </strong>(123 yards receiving, 2 TDs) as a top 5 WR. He also went against the grain by giving <strong>Mike Williams (TB)</strong> WR2 status (WR #23). Williams rewarded that faith by producing his best fantasy output of the season (14.3 points). Woellert also hit the mark by outdoing the expert consensus when it came to ranking a trio of stud performers: <strong>Vincent Jackson,</strong> <strong>Torrey Smith &amp; Jerome Simpson</strong>. And at the QB position, Woellert was ahead of the field by 6 rank spots in his decision to slot Alex Smith as a viable (QB #11) starting option. That was a quality pick as Smith posted top 10 fantasy numbers.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>If there’s one solid way to make an introduction to the fantasy football world, it’s the following: Create a new site, enter an accuracy competition and finish in the top 5 your first week in the contest. That’s what <a title="Greg Smith - The Fake Football" href="http://thefakefootball.com/" target="_blank">Greg Smith (The Fake Football)</a> accomplished in week 11. Smith was most accurate at the TE position, where he finished as the 4<sup>th</sup> rated expert. His TE PAY™ of 80.8% means that following his relevant advice would have netted owners over 80% of available fantasy points. Not bad for a debut, right? Besides hitting on the expected studs (<strong>Rob Gronkowski</strong>, <strong>Jason Witten</strong>, <strong>Tony Gonzalez</strong>), Smith also delivered a nice sleeper hit by placing Kellen Winslow above the majority of experts as his 9th rated TE. Winslow made good on the pick by hitting the Packers up for his best game of the season (9 catches, 132 yards).</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The crew at <a title="RosterWatch" href="http://rosterwatch.com/" target="_blank">RosterWatch</a> has been among the best of the best with their predictions over the past several weeks. With a 4<sup>th</sup> place finish this time around, they’ve now cracked the top 10 each of the last 3 weeks. Of the 74 experts we track, no one else can make that claim. The strength of their week 11 picks came at the QB position. As one example, no other site was higher on <strong>Tony Romo</strong> than the RosterWatch staff. The much-maligned Cowboys’ QB was penciled in as their 3<sup>rd</sup> rated QB and he delivered in a big way by tossing 3 TDs (292 yards passing). RosterWatch also took a bit of a gamble by slotting <strong>Jay Cutler </strong>as their 8<sup>th</sup> best QB. Only 2 experts graded him higher but it turned out to be a worthy roll of the dice as Cutler put up top 5 fantasy (QB) numbers.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>That wraps up this week’s accuracy report. As a reminder, the results for the entire field of experts are available over at the <a title="Week 11 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">accuracy section</a> of our site. You can see how the experts rank for the week and the season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>We&#8217;ll be back again next week with another recap. Until then, good luck this week and Happy Thanksgiving!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Week 10’s Most Accurate Experts</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-10/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-10/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Nov 2011 17:11:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Dodds FootballGuys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ESPN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Greco FantasyPros911]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sigmund Bloom FootballGuys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Week 10]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=14126</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every week in the NFL has its own quirks and week 10 was no exception. No stat stood out more than Matthew Stafford attempting 63 passes compared to Tim Tebow’s 8 attempts. Even more amazing is that Tebow managed to nearly double Stafford’s fantasy production. It just goes to show that you see something new . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-10/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-12237" title="Accuracy3" src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/Accuracy.jpg" alt="" width="133" height="106" />Every week in the NFL has its own quirks and week 10 was no exception. No stat stood out more than Matthew Stafford attempting 63 passes compared to Tim Tebow’s 8 attempts. Even more amazing is that Tebow managed to nearly double Stafford’s fantasy production. It just goes to show that you see something new every week in this topsy-turvy sport we all enjoy so much.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>While something such as the above example is hardly predictable, there are still plenty of outcomes that can be spotted in advance. That&#8217;s where the fantasy experts come into play with their weekly picks.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>So which experts were the best at predicting week 10’s fantasy performances? We’ll break it down by looking at the 10 most accurate experts (out of 75). You can also view the <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">YTD leaderboard</a> here.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span id="more-14126"></span></p>
<h3><strong>Week 10 Leaderboard</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 582px; height: 243px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Overall Week 10 Accuracy Scores*  </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background-color: #d4e8f2;">
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Rank</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  1.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fantasypros911.com/" target="_new">Paul Greco &#8211; FantasyPros911</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 65.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  2.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.footballguys.com/" target="_new">Sigmund Bloom &#8211; FootballGuys</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  3.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.footballguys.com/" target="_new">David Dodds &#8211; FootballGuys</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  4.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://espn.go.com/" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; ESPN</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 64.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  5.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fftoday.com/" target="_new">Mike Krueger &#8211; FFToday</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  6.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://nflsoup.com/" target="_new">Kevin Roberts &#8211; NFL Soup</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  7.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy" target="_new">Staff Composite &#8211; Yahoo! Sports</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  8.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://rosterwatch.com/" target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; RosterWatch</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  9.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://www.fftoolbox.com/" target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; FFToolbox</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 63.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;">  10.</td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> <a href="http://football.razzball.com/" target="_new">Chet Gresham &#8211; Razzball</a></td>
<td style="border-color: #000000; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px;"> 62.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a title="Week 10 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank"><em>*See how all 75 experts ranked for the week</em></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Notes</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Congratulations to week 10’s most accurate expert, <a title="Paul Greco - FantasyPros911" href="http://fantasypros911.com/" target="_blank">Paul Greco (FantasyPros911)</a>. Greco proved to be a master at predicting RBs this past week, edging out all of his peers. He was especially high (RB #22) on <strong>Marshawn Lynch </strong>and went out on a limb as one of a few pundits to give him RB2 status. That was a solid piece of advice as Lynch defeated the odds by posting top 5 numbers against a stout Ravens’ defense. Greco also hit the mark by touting several of week 10’s biggest studs: <strong>DeMarco Murray (RB #6)</strong>, <strong>Chris Johnson (RB #12)</strong> &amp; <strong>Reggie Bush (RB #19)</strong>. Each player was a top 10 performer that Greco ranked better than the expert consensus. These picks served as key contributions to his #1 overall rating for the week.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>A familiar name to the top 10 – <a title="Sigmund Bloom - FootballGuys" href="http://footballguys.com/" target="_blank">Sigmund Bloom (FootballGuys)</a> – is back again as this week’s runner-up. Bloom earned his lofty rating by providing sound advice across the positions he ranked. That is to say he finished in the top 15 at RB, WR &amp; TE. His picks were notable for pegging a duo of Raiders that lit up the Chargers. Specifically, Bloom was one of just 6 experts that ranked <strong>Michael Bush (RB #9)</strong> inside their top 10 RBs. He also delivered the 2<sup>nd</sup> highest rating  of the week (WR #23) for <strong>Denarius Moore</strong>, who hauled in 2 TD passes in addition to 100 yards receiving. Given his faith in the Raiders’ RBs &amp; WRs, it probably doesn’t come as a surprise that Bloom was also a week 10 believer in <strong>Carson Palmer</strong>. His ranking (QB #10) was 8 spots higher than the consensus and served as a recommendation to consider Palmer as a low end QB play. That turned out to be helpful advice as Palmer put up solid numbers (299 yards passing, 2 TDs &amp; 1 INT).</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The quality advice from <a title="FootballGuys" href="http://footballguys.com/" target="_blank">FootballGuys</a> didn’t stop with Sigmund Bloom. Another FBG expert, David Dodds, also turned in a top 5 performance. Dodds finished the week 3<sup>rd</sup> overall on the strength of his RB picks (#3 rank). This showing likely comes as no surprise to those who followed our accuracy competitions in <a title="2009 Accuracy Results" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/#2009" target="_blank">2009</a> &amp; <a title="2010 Accuracy Results" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/#2010" target="_blank">2010</a>. Dodds was the #1 RB expert for BOTH of those years. This past week, he was on target by slotting top 5 backs &#8211; <strong>DeMarco Murray (RB #5)</strong> &amp; <strong>Marshawn Lynch (RB #21)</strong> – ahead of the majority of experts. He also had the foresight to downgrade a trio of guys that would typically be starters: <strong>Shonn Greene (RB #27)</strong>, <strong>Beanie Wells (RB #35)</strong> &amp; <strong>Jackie Battle</strong> <strong>(RB #35).</strong> In each instance, those rankings from Dodds represented either the lowest or second lowest ratings for a group of players that underachieved.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>The site projections from <a title="ESPN" href="http://espn.go.com/" target="_blank">ESPN</a> may catch some flack every now and then but they proved to be extremely accurate this past week (#4 rank). This was especially the case at the WR position, where ESPN graded out as serving up the best advice. One of their best picks was placing the week’s 2<sup>nd</sup> best WR, <strong>Denarius Moore</strong>, a full 26 spots ahead (WR #23) of the expert consensus. That advice acted as a definite recommendation to start Moore even though he wasn’t a trendy pick to break out. ESPN also showed some confidence in another up-and-coming receiver that put up top 5 numbers. Their ranking (WR #36) for <strong>Damian Williams</strong> was 21 spots higher than the field and showed that they considered Williams a prime Flex candidate. Finally, ESPN made the right call in downgrading <strong>Wes Welker</strong>, given that his week 10 match-up included a visit to Revis Island. The ranking they handed Welker (WR #29) was lower than that of all but one expert. It was ultimately the right call as Welker finished the week barely inside the top 50 WRs.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>If you’d like to see how the entire field rated in week 10, head over to the <a title="Accuracy Scores" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">accuracy section </a>of our site. The results are viewable by position and we also have a <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">YTD leaderboard </a>that displays the overall standings.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>And, don’t forget, you can play in our <a title="Beat the Expert - Week 11" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">Beat the Expert contest </a>if you’re looking to see how you stack up against the pros. The contest is completely free with a $1,000 prize pool courtesy of our sponsor, FanDuel. This week’s expert is #1 rated prognosticator, <a title="Pat Fitzmaurice - ProFootballWeekly" href="http://www.profootballweekly.com/" target="_blank">Pat Fitzmaurice (ProFootballWeekly)</a>. Good luck!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Week 9’s Most Accurate Experts</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-9/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-9/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Nov 2011 18:59:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinstrap Ninjas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keet Bailey NFLSoup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Zalis Fans Fantasy Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Woellert FantasyFootball.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Week 9]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=13871</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you’re a fan of surprises, week 9’s action had more than its fair share to keep you entertained. Between Eli Manning outdueling Tom Brady, Matt Moore posting top 4 fantasy QB numbers (huh?) and the mighty Steelers’ defense succumbing down the stretch, it was definitely a week of unexpected outcomes. That can only mean . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-9/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-12237" title="Accuracy3" src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/Accuracy.jpg" alt="" width="144" height="113" />If you’re a fan of surprises, week 9’s action had more than its fair share to keep you entertained. Between Eli Manning outdueling Tom Brady, Matt Moore posting top 4 fantasy QB numbers (huh?) and the mighty Steelers’ defense succumbing down the stretch, it was definitely a week of unexpected outcomes. That can only mean it wasn’t the easiest week for the experts to predict (we did mention Matt Moore was a peak performer, right?!).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top 10 experts (out of 75) from week 9 to see who handed out the best advice. You can also check out the accuracy portion of our site for a <a title="Week 9 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">breakdown by position</a>. This includes <a title="IDP Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/idp.php" target="_blank">IDP ratings</a>, which were just launched last week.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span id="more-13871"></span></p>
<h3><strong> Week 9 Leaderboard</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 583px; height: 229px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #c7e2ef;">
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Overall* Week 9 Accuracy Scores</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background-color: #c7e2ef;">
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"><strong> Rank</strong></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 1.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://fantasyfootball.com/" target="_new">Mike Woellert &#8211; FantasyFootball.com</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 67.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 2.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://nflsoup.com/" target="_new">Keet Bailey &#8211; NFL Soup</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 67.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 3.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com " target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; Chinstrap Ninjas </a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 66.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 4.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.rotoworld.com/" target="_new">Gregg Rosenthal &#8211; Rotoworld</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 66.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 5.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://fansfantasyfootball.com/" target="_new">Ken Zalis &#8211; Fans Fantasy Football</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 66.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 6.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.profootballfocus.com/" target="_new">Mike Clay &#8211; Pro Football Focus</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 7.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.fantasyshrink.com/" target="_new">John Paulsen &#8211; The Fantasy Shrink</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 8.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://numberfire.com/" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; numberFire</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 9.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://rosterwatch.com/" target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; RosterWatch</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 10.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.profootballfocus.com/" target="_new">Jeff Ratcliffe &#8211; Pro Football Focus</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a title="Week 9 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank"><em>*See how all 75 experts ranked for the week</em></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Notes</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Nice job by <a title="Mike Woellert - FantasyFootball.com" href="http://fantasyfootball.com/" target="_blank">Mike Wollert (FantasyFootball.com)</a> in earning the honor as week 9’s most accurate expert. Woellert’s picks landed him in the top 10 at 3 positions (RB, WR, TE) and that helped push his overall score to the top of the pack. At the WR position, he outranked the expert consensus for several of week 9’s impact players: <strong>Vincent Jackson (WR #11)</strong>, <strong>Julio Jones (WR #19)</strong> and <strong>Brandon Marshall (WR #14)</strong>. He was also 1 of only 7 experts to slot <strong>Torrey Smith </strong>inside his top 36 WRs. His ranking (WR #36) served as a recommendation to consider Smith for Flex purposes. That was a good call considering that Torrey finished as a top 10 fantasy WR. Woellert’s TE rankings were notable in that he was 1 of only a handful of experts NOT to rank <strong>Jimmy Graham </strong>as his #1 TE. He went with <strong>Antonio Gates</strong> instead and that worked out well as Gates posted 96 yards receiving and hauled in a TD.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a title="Keet Bailey - NFL Soup" href="http://nflsoup.com/" target="_blank">Keet Bailey (NFL Soup)</a> netted his best showing of the season as this week’s runner-up. Bailey was especially on-target with his TE picks, finishing as the #1 expert for the category. A few of Bailey’s best predictions were his rankings for <strong>Rob Gronkowski (TE #2)</strong> and <strong>Jake Ballard (TE #9)</strong>. When it came to Ballard, only 2 experts in the entire field were higher on him. That was an important pick since Ballard turned out to be one of the top surprise players at the position. Bailey also did an excellent job with his WR advice (#3 rank). He hit it big by slotting breakout stud, <strong>Julio Jones</strong>, higher (WR #14) than all but 1 expert. He also delivered the best ranking (WR #12) of the week for another top 5 performer in <strong>Jordy Nelson</strong>. It didn’t hurt Bailey’s cause either that he was by far the least confident (WR #21) in the entire field on <strong>Roddy White. </strong>White once again failed to play up to his potential, causing the gamble to pay off.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Another site turning in their best performance of the season is the staff at <a title="Chinstrap Ninjas" href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/" target="_blank">Chinstrap Ninjas</a>. The Ninjas handed out the week’s 2nd best QB advice. A good illustration of their accuracy is that they had 9 of the top 10 fantasy QBs ranked as well or better than the expert consensus. The consensus typically rates well so that type of performance is a surefire sign of a good week. The staff of Ninjas also did well at the RB position (#9 rank). A few notable big hits included their rankings for a trio of backups forced into starting roles: <strong>Michael Bush (RB #9)</strong>, <strong>Mike Tolbert (RB #12) </strong>and <strong>Brandon Jacobs (RB #16)</strong>. The staff had each back ranked higher than the majority of experts and the players rewarded that faith by putting up top 10 fantasy numbers.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Rounding out the top 5 this week is <a title="Ken Zalis - FantasyFootball.com" href="http://fansfantasyfootball.com/" target="_blank">Ken Zalis (Fans Fantasy Football)</a>. Zalis has been a consistent performer all season long and now sits <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">4<sup>th</sup> overall</a> in our season standings. This past week, he displayed that consistency by finishing in the top 15 for 3 of the 4 positions (QB, RB, TE) that factor into our overall accuracy scoring. Most importantly, he was ahead of the curve with his rankings for several players, including <strong>Julio Jones (WR #19)</strong> &amp; <strong>Willis McGahee (RB #19</strong>, that were among week 9’s best performers.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>That wraps up this week’s accuracy report. As a reminder, the results for the entire field of experts are available over at the <a title="Week 9 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">accuracy section</a> of our site. You can see how the experts rank for the week and the season.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>If you’re eager to make your own predictions, be sure to check out this week’s <a title="Beat the Expert - Week 9" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">Beat the Expert Contest vs. Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated)</a>. The contest is completely free with a $1,000 prize pool courtesy of our sponsor, <a title="FanDuel" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">FanDuel</a>. Good luck!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Week 8&#8242;s Most Accurate Experts</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-8/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-8/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Nov 2011 16:20:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Wesseling - Rotoworld]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Richard CBS Sports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FFToolbox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gregg Rosenthal Rotoworld]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[numberFire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Week 8]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasypros.com/?p=13591</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We’re officially halfway through the fantasy season which means we’re not too far away from crowning this year’s most accurate fantasy football expert. Judging by the recent movement in the Year-to-Date standings, the top billing is still up for grabs for any expert who makes a 2nd half push. &#160; Before we get too far . . . <a href="http://www.fantasypros.com/2011/11/most-accurate-experts-week-8/"> read more &#187;</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-12237" title="Accuracy3" src="http://cdn.fantasypros.com/wp-content/uploads/Accuracy.jpg" alt="" width="140" height="107" />We’re officially halfway through the fantasy season which means we’re not too far away from crowning this year’s most accurate fantasy football expert. Judging by the recent movement in the <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">Year-to-Date standings</a>, the top billing is still up for grabs for any expert who makes a 2<sup>nd</sup> half push.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, though, let’s check in on how the experts did in week 8. We’ll examine who did the best job with their picks by breaking down the week’s top 10 experts (out of 72).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><span id="more-13591"></span><strong>Week 8 Leaderboard</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="width: 583px; height: 231px;" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #c7e2ef;">
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000; text-align: center;" colspan="3"><strong>Overall Week 8 Accuracy Scores*</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background-color: #c7e2ef;">
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"><strong> Rank</strong></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"><strong> Expert</strong></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"><strong> PAY™</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 1.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://numberfire.com/" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; numberFire</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 66.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 2.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.fftoolbox.com/" target="_new">Staff Rankings &#8211; FFToolbox</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 66.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 3.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.cbssports.com" target="_new">Dave Richard &#8211; CBS Sports</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 66.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 4.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.rotoworld.com/" target="_new">Gregg Rosenthal &#8211; Rotoworld</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 66.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 5.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/" target="_new">Sablich Brothers &#8211; The New York Times</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 6.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://cbssports.com" target="_new">Jamey Eisenberg &#8211; CBS Sports</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 7.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.tofantasysports.com/" target="_new">Tommy Rowan &#8211; TOFantasySports</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 8.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.nfl.com/" target="_new">Staff Composite &#8211; NFL.com</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 9.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://www.nfl.com/" target="_new">Michael Fabiano &#8211; NFL.com</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 10.</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> <a href="http://cbssports.com" target="_new">Site Projections &#8211; CBS Sports</a></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000;"> 65.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a title="Week 8 Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank"><em>*See how all 72 experts ranked for the week</em></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Notes:</strong></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Congrats to the crew at <a title="numberFire" href="http://www.numberfire.com/" target="_blank">numberFire (NF)</a> for churning out the week’s most accurate advice. Their projections were particularly accurate at the RB position, where they hit on a number of key players. Specifically, numberFire rode the week 8 success of <strong>Fred Jackson (RB #2)</strong>, <strong>Adrian Peterson (RB #3)</strong> &amp; <strong>Ray Rice (RB #4)</strong>. In addition to hitting on the studs, they also made a few good calls on players that the rest of the field wasn’t so high on. For example, while the expert consensus ranked the injury-riddled <strong>Beanie Wells</strong> outside of RB3 status, NF firmly recommended him as a “start” candidate (RB #26). This turned out to be helpful advice as Beanie gutted out a top 10 fantasy performance. Another solid pick was ranking <strong>Javon Ringer (RB #36) </strong>a full 9 slots ahead of the consensus. That essentially amounted to a Flex recommendation for Ringer which was risky given his role behind Chris Johnson. It was a gamble that paid off, however, as Ringer’s top 15 fantasy production was one the surprises of the week.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>The staff at <a title="FFToolbox" href="http://fftoolbox.com/" target="_blank">FFToolbox</a> cracked the top 10 for the third time this season as week 8’s runner-up. FFToolbox’s best predictions came courtesy of their WR rankings (#1 overall). They did an especially good job of pegging the studs, managing to rank 8 out of the top 10 fantasy WRs as well or better than the expert consensus. This includes going against the grain by handing <strong>Victor Cruz </strong>his highest ranking of the week (WR #18). They were also one of the few sites to slot <strong>Malcom Floyd (WR #23)</strong> as a potential starter. Floyd rewarded that faith by posting 100+ receiving yards for the second time this season. It’s also worth noting that FFToolbox delivered with their mid-level picks. That’s always important since those predictions often represent the tough start/sit calls for fantasy players. A few of their best calls were having <strong>Doug Baldwin (WR #33)</strong> &amp; <strong>Jason Avant (WR #34)</strong> slotted as Flex candidates. Both players were ranked outside of the consensus top 50 and finished the week within the top 30 at their position.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>Another expert that delivered well rounded advice in week 8 was <a title="Dave Richard - CBS Sports" href="http://www.cbssports.com/" target="_blank">Dave Richard (CBS Sports)</a>. Richard ranked in the top 10 at both RB (#1) and QB (#8). At the RB position, he was ahead of the curve in giving <strong>Steven Jackson (RB #8) </strong>a top 10 rating. That paid off for him as Jackson turned in his best outing of the season (159 yds rushing, 2 TDs). Richard was also notably higher than the field on <strong>Beanie Wells (RB #21) </strong>&amp; <strong>Reggie Bush (RB #22)</strong> and both helped his cause by putting up top 15 numbers. For his QB picks, Richard helped himself by outranking the consensus for several key performers: <strong>Cam Netwon (QB #2)</strong>, <strong>Eli Manning (QB #5)</strong> &amp; <strong>Matt Schaub (QB #8)</strong>. He also came through by delivering relatively low rankings for a few of the week’s biggest disappointments: <strong>Tim Tebow (QB #13)</strong> &amp; <strong>Tony Romo (QB #11)</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Last week’s accuracy champs, <a title="Rotoworld" href="http://rotoworld.com/" target="_blank">Gregg Rosenthal &amp; Chris Wesseling (Rotoworld)</a>, kept up their hot streak with a 4<sup>th</sup> place showing. This marks the 3<sup>rd</sup> time they’ve finished in the top 5 this season, which is the most of anyone in the field. The duo now sits 9<sup>th</sup> overall in the <a title="YTD Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/" target="_blank">YTD standings</a> and are in prime position to make a late season run at the accuracy title if they can keep up their strong run of advice.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>That wraps up this week’s accuracy report. As a reminder, the results for the entire field of 70+ experts are available over at the <a title="Accuracy Leaderboard" href="http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/weekly.php" target="_blank">accuracy section</a> of our site. You can see how the experts rank overall and by position.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>If you’d like to get involved with your own predictions, be sure to check out this week’s <a title="Beat the Expert Contest" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">Beat the Expert Contest vs. Chris Wesseling (Rotoworld)</a>. The contest is completely free with a $1,000 prize pool courtesy of our sponsor, <a title="FanDuel" href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_770b_278" target="_blank">FanDuel</a>. Good luck!</p>
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