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Featured Pros: Championship Week Sleepers

Posted by andrew on December, 20th 2011 Tweet

Quick…what do Josh Freeman, John Kuhn, Jerome Simpson, and Jared Cook all have in common? We’ll accept 3 answers:

 

1. Their first names all begin with the letter “J”.
2. All have been relative non-factors for fantasy purposes this season.
3. To everyone’s surprise, each player produced at a top 5 fantasy level during week 16 of last season.

 

Obviously, we’re not saying #3 will happen again this year (we’ve seen enough of Josh Freeman to make such a claim). The point, however, is that someone will step up as an unexpected championship week stud.  It happens every season and you can bet that it’s likely to occur again.

 

For this week’s edition of Featured Pros, we’re calling on the industry’s top “out of the box” experts to give us their sleeper picks for championship week. These are the pundits who aren’t afraid to go against the grain and they frequently hit the mark when doing so. Simply put, if anyone is going to have a read on surprise performers, it’s most likely these experts. Let’s find out who they like to step it up with fantasy titles on the line…

 

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Featured Pros: Who will disappoint in week 15?

Posted by andrew on December, 16th 2011 Tweet

Here’s a quick test for you. Name the players who put up the following numbers last week (images to the right):

 

Tough test, right? Without the benefit of multiple choice, you’re maybe thinking to yourself that Player A’s line looks like a typical Donald Brown game. And perhaps Player B is a Josh Cribbs caliber player. Or…. you know we’re setting you up.

 

If you guessed this guy (Player A) and this guy (Player B) then you’re correct, and you obviously watch way too much football (that’s a good thing). Either way, no one would have predicted those numbers for those players – the #2 RB & #1 WR – heading into last week. But if there’s one thing we’re certain of it’s that there are bound to be a few surprising underachievers every week.

 

For this week’s Featured Pros, we’re jumping ahead of the action and asking the most accurate experts at each position to predict the top underperformers before the games happen. A novel concept, we know. Without further ado, let’s find out who the experts think could disappoint their owners in week 15.

 

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Bold Predictions for the Fantasy Playoffs

Posted by dave on December, 13th 2011 Tweet

If someone in the preseason had told me Rob Gronkowski would lead all tight ends and wide receivers in fantasy scoring this season, I would have called him nuts. But this is the kind of bold prediction that could have nudged me into drafting Gronk a round before my competition (Yes Andrew, you were right!).
 
Predicting the unpredictable is always fun (and sometimes helpful), so we asked 21 experts to give us one bold prediction for the fantasy playoffs. Felix Jones, Jake Locker, and Tim Tebow scored multiple mentions, but there were a few other noteworthy players that you might think about rolling the dice with this weekend. Enjoy…
 

“Felix Jones will be our game’s top scorer during the most important two-week stretch of the fantasy season. There it is. Bold enough? Hope so. Felix is about to face the NFL’s most generous defense in terms of points-allowed to running backs (Tampa Bay), and then he’ll face the ninth-most generous D (Philadelphia). He’s also the last man standing in Dallas’ backfield. Add if you can.” – Andy Behrens, Yahoo! Sports
 
“Felix Jones will be a top 10 RB in weeks 15 and 16. With matchups against the Bucs and Eagles, the fresh-legged RB will run wild against these suspect run D’s and could carry many teams to a fantasy championship.” – Tommy Rowan, TOFantasySports
 
“Felix Jones will be a top 10 fantasy running back over the next two weeks.” – Sigmund Bloom, FootballGuys
 
“Felix Jones will be the leading fantasy scorer at all positions for Weeks 15 and 16.” – Derek Lofland, FantasyFootballManiaxs
 
“Rob Gronkowski will be outscored by at least one other tight end in week 15 or week 16.” – Greg Smith, TheFakeFootball
 
“Some lucky fantasy enthusiasts will secure a spot on the finals because they started … wait for it …
Jake Locker. Not me, I’m starting Eli Manning in all of my important leagues. But somebody who lost a quarterback this week (like Ben Roethlisberger owners) will start Locker and get 322 yards, 2 passing touchdowns and 34 rushing yards.” – Adam Rank, NFL.com
 
“Jake Locker will finish the season as the Titans starting QB and he will post top 10 fantasy football stats helping savvy waiver wire vultures pull off a championship.” – Kurt Turner, FantasyKnuckleheads
 
“Jake Locker will be a top-10 QB over Weeks 15 and 16, throwing for over 500 yards scoring four TDs while throwing only one interception.” – R.J. White, Fantasy Cafe
 
“Jake Locker starts for the Titans and ends up a QB1 for Week’s 15 (Colts) and 16 (Jaguars) while out-producing the likes of Sanchez, Flacco, Freeman and Roethlisberger, to name a few.” – Keet Bailey, NFL Soup
 
“Texans RB Ben Tate will be a top 10 fantasy back over the fantasy playoffs.” – Josh Moore, 4for4
 
“With three dome games against Jacksonville’s injury-depleted corners, the Bucs’ dead-men walking defense, and a potential shootout with the Saints, Julio Jones finishes as the No. 1 fantasy receiver over the final three weeks.” – Chris Wesseling, Rotoworld
 
“Lions WR Titus Young produces 200+ receiving yards and two TDs over the next two weeks. Neither Young’s recent target numbers nor his upcoming matchups (Oakland and San Diego) really justify this; it’s strictly a gut feeling. As opponents continue to go all out to stop Calvin Johnson, the time seems right for Young to finish his rookie year with a bang.” – Pat Fitzmaurice, ProFootballWeekly
 
“Despite two tough matchups, Philip Rivers will finish in the top three in fantasy points among QBs in Weeks 15 and 16.” – Kevin Hanson, EDS Football
 
“TJ Yates will be this years Billy Volek.” – Ken Moody, DynastyLeagueFootball
 
“Roy Helu has proven himself as an integral part of “Fantasy Satan” Mike Shanahan’s evolving offense. With matchups in Weeks 15 and 16 against the Giants and the Vikings, my bold prediction is that Helu will be the highest scoring runner (on average) over the final two weeks of the fantasy season, thanks largely in part to his receiving production.” – Alex Dunlap, RosterWatch
 
“After failing to go over 80 yards against the Cleveland Browns in week 14, Rashard Mendenhall breaks out in week 15. Mendenhall, not only rushes for 127 yards, but scores the first touchdowns (yes, plural) on the vaunted 49′er rush defense, vaulting his owners that took the chance on him, into their Fantasy Bowl Championship. Mendy goes for 127 and 2 scores against the 49′ers in week 15.” – Mike Woellert, FantasyFootball.com
 
“Ben Roethlisberger gets hit so hard that his flesh splits proving once and for all he is an android!” – Ken Zalis, FansFantasyFootball
 
“Tim Tebow will throw for 300 yards and run for 100 yards in a win vs. the Patriots in week 15.” – Nelson Sousa, scoutPro
 
“Fantasy owners around the world will start a Hasselbeckian quarterback over Tim Tebow in the playoffs because ‘there’s no way Tebow can keep doing this, right?’ They will regret it until at least Week 1 of 2012.” – Eric Pehowic, Chinstrap Ninjas
 
“Tim Tebow will guide the Broncos to three more consecutive wins, finishing 11-1 as a regular-season starter for the Broncos in 2011. This will have the Broncos finishing the 2011 NFL regular season with an 11-5 record. Want bold? Tebow will do all of this while playing like a top 5 fantasy QB! And, no, we’re not jumping on the wagon here… if you read our article posted back in August, which called out the media-driven hate directed to Tebow, well, then you can see that we helped construct the Tim Tebow wagon. NFL greatness is already upon us… fantasy greatness is the next step. Enjoy the show!” – Smitty, FantasyFootballXtreme
 
“Tim Tebow will be a top-5 fantasy quarterback for the final three weeks. Tebow is clearly progressing as a passer and he continues to carry value as a dual threat. He has a terrific matchup in the passing game against the weak Patriots pass defense in week 15, a dream matchup against an overall pathetic Bills defense in week 16, and a matchup with a sunken Chiefs team to end the season. The Broncos will fight to the finish every week until the season ends, while even in his worst outing, Tebow has never dipped under 14 fantasy points.” – Kevin Roberts, NFL Soup
 
I want to thank all the experts that gave us their crystal ball readings. Your bold predictions are in print now… let’s see if anyone nails these long shots!
 
Which reminds me, if you’re ever curious about which experts were high or low on certain players with their preseason rankings, just click on the “Draft Rankings” tab on any of our player pages. You’ll instantly see who really loved/hated the player.
 
Got a bold prediction too? Let us know!
 
Photo Credits: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6

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Studs, Duds and Sleepers – Playoff Edition

Posted by dave on December, 10th 2011 Tweet

I can only imagine the relief you Big Ben owners were feeling after halftime in the TNF game. Ben’s 280 yards and 2 TDs had to be worth a fist pump after seeing his severe limp and hearing the “high ankle sprain” commentary. What a dramatic start to the fantasy playoffs!
 
Speaking of the playoffs, if you’re reading this you’re likely in the hunt for a championship so it’s a good time to get some help from the pros. What better way to get this advice than to check in on how the experts are feeling about the players on their own teams?
 
Our first annual FantasyPros Invitational experts’ league brought together 12 pros that have performed exceptionally well in our past accuracy competitions. Check out this post on Yahoo to see the invitees and the players they drafted (btw, it’s the first time we’ve enjoyed being called “fools”).
 
We asked the experts that made the playoffs to tell us who they love and hate on their teams for the critical weeks to come. What follows is a list of potential studs, duds and sleepers that will hopefully help you lock down your league’s 2011 championship. Good luck!
 
Here are experts and their playoff seeds (click on the expert’s team name to view his roster):
 
(1) Andy Behrens – Yahoo! Sports | Secret Treasure Loaf
(2) Bob Henry – Football Guys | FBG Henry
(3) Pat Fitzmaurice – Pro Football Weekly | PFW – Fitzmaurice
(4) John Paulsen – The Fantasy Shrink | Fantasy Shrink
(5) Brandon Funston – Yahoo! Sports | Team 6
(6) Chet Gresham – Razzball | Razzballs
 
Q1. STUDS: Which one guy on your team do you expect to be a playoff stud? Why?
 
Andy Behrens: “Hopefully all of ‘em. Actually, I’d just settle for decent health. I’ve got Adrian Peterson, Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Ahmad Bradshaw and Julio Jones on my roster. And I had Matt Schaub, too. It’s been a brutal end-of-season for me. No team needed the bye quite like mine.”
 
Editors Note: Clearly Andy is giddy about his top seed since he couldn’t narrow it down to one stud! J/K
 
Bob Henry: “I’d have to say Roy Helu after his performance over the last two games. It’s too bad I lost Fred Jackson a few weeks back and made the boneheaded move of cutting DeMarco Murray a few days before he blew up to shore up another position during the bye weeks. I had no chance in getting him back. The joy of having short benches and 16-man rosters. Honestly, though, after losing F-Jax, Fred Davis and Sidney Rice, I’ll need a good team effort from everybody starting with Tom Brady and all the way down to the Texans defense.”
 
Pat Fitzmaurice: “Aaron Rodgers. Pretty easy answer there. Did I mention that I got him in the second round? (Second round!) I thought this was supposed to be an expert’s league. Kidding, guys … only kidding.”
 
John Paulsen: “The Lions need wins and Matthew Stafford has three terrific matchups to close the fantasy season; the Vikings, Raiders and Chargers are all in the top 6 in Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed to QBs this season. And since two games are at home and the other is in California, weather isn’t much of a concern.”
 
Chet Gresham: “Tim Tebow seems to be getting better each week and gets the Patriots and Bills porous pass defenses in weeks 15 and 16. If he can put up his usual numbers against a tough Bears defense I think he’ll do some real damage.”
 
Q2. DUDS: Which one guy on your team are you worried about being a playoff dud? Why?
 
Andy Behrens: “Assuming Miles Austin is healthy in Week 16 against Philly, I’m interested to see if Jason Garrett returns to his previous failed strategy, not daring to challenge the Eagles corners. The Cowboys didn’t even target Dez or Miles in the first half of that loss. So Austin could be a problem. I’m worried about Carson Palmer, too, because the team’s top offensive weapons can’t walk.”
 
Bob Henry: “Hakeem Nicks or Larry Fitzgerald. They’re obviously both elite talents at their position but they haven’t necessarily produced up to their ADP either. Victor Cruz has overtaken Nicks in many ways as the Giants #1 receiver, although I’m holding out hope that Nicks will regain his form even though he’ll be on Revis Island in Week 16.”
 
Pat Fitzmaurice: “I’m a little nervous about Cedric Benson because, well, he’s Cedric Benson. Fortunately, he’s sort of a gravy guy for me — I don’t expect much, and anything he gives me is just gravy on top of heavily buttered mashed potatoes.”
 
John Paulsen: “He’s already a dud, but DeSean Jackson could bottom out over the next three weeks given his bad attitude and matchups with an improving Miami secondary, Revis Island, and a decent Cowboys defense. Given my lack of depth at WR, I am pretty much forced to start him and hope he starts caring about his future.”
 
Chet Gresham: “I was loving Brandon Lloyd until both Sam Bradford and AJ Feeley landed on the injury report. He has led the league in targets in the second half of the season and was a strong play each week but these QB injuries and a date with the Steelers in week 16 are troublesome.”
 
Q3. SLEEPERS: Who is the best sleeper that you have stashed away on your bench? Why might he surprise us?
 
Andy Behrens: “Given my ridiculous injury situation, I haven’t actually been able to stash many swing-for-the-fences options. By default, Kendall Hunter is the guy, but his Week 15-16 schedule is awful (Pittsburgh, Seattle). Of course I wish I’d stashed Ben Tate (Carolina, Indianapolis), but that was never an option.”
 
Bob Henry: “That would’ve been DeMarco Murray. Doh! Otherwise, Michael Bush (9.12). Drafting 12th, I decided to give the upside down draft strategy a shot and go WR/WR off the top. I landed Fred Jackson in the 6th round, which was huge, but now I’m hoping that Bush sustains his value and DMC takes a little longer to return to the lineup to allow me to continue extracting every bit of value I can get out of him. Otherwise, I grabbed Demaryius Thomas with an eye on the Week 15 matchup with the Patriots. It’s dicey rolling with a Broncos WR as long as Tim Tebow is the QB, but that matchup is loaded with potential.”
 
Pat Fitzmaurice: “That’s kind of a tough one. There are 10 starting-lineup spots in this league and only 10 bench spots. My starting lineup is pretty solid, but my bench … meh. My best bench guy is probably Andy Dalton, but he’s backing up Aaron Rodgers. Darrius Heyward-Bey might have some sleeper potential simply because Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford and now Chaz Schilens are all banged up for Oakland, leaving DHB as the only healthy Raider receiver who’s reasonably decent.”
 
John Paulsen: “I’ve been starting him the last couple of weeks, but Damian Williams is still flying under the fantasy radar. He has gained 60+ yards and/or scored a TD in seven of his last nine games and has three nice matchups (NO, IND, JAX) to close the season.”
 
Chet Gresham: “I’m hoping that Kevin Smith can come through if I make it to weeks 15 and 16. He has good matchups versus the Raiders and San Diego and has gone off or been poised to go off each week he’s started. He most likely will be rested this week which could have him ready to go in those nice matchups.”
 
I want to thank our experts for competing in our first Invitational and contributing their advice for our readers. Hopefully your teams have more of the aforementioned studs and sleepers than duds. Best of luck to both the experts and you all this weekend!
 
Finally, if you like what we do here at FantasyPros, we hope you’ll consider becoming a fan on Facebook. We offer exclusive content and contests there from time to time. Check out our latest contest where you’ll get a free premium subscription for this year AND next year if you can answer 3 multiple choice questions correctly.

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Featured Pros: Pressing Questions (Playoff Prep)

Posted by andrew on December, 6th 2011 Tweet

There’s a lot on the line for fantasy owners over the next few weeks. Whether you’re playing for bragging rights, a shiny trophy, money, or to avoid paying off an embarrassing bet, it’s safe to say the stakes are pretty high.

 

Whatever scenario you fall into (hopefully not the one about potentially wearing a yellow dress), we’re here to help out. Specifically, there are several pressing questions heading into the playoff stretch and we’ve rounded up a new batch of Featured Pros to serve up some advice.

 

Before we get to the advice, here’s the list of this week’s participating experts. You can click on each pro’s name to follow them on Twitter.

 

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