Who Should I Draft?

C.J. Spiller or Toby Gerhart (2014)

Revise
Expert Pick %
58%
42%
ECR
# 17
# 18
Best
# 9
# 10
Worst
# 57
# 32
Ave Projection (?)
10.6
11.2
Best
14.0
16.0
Worst
7.5
8.3
Expert Pick %
58%
42%
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Gene Wang
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Pro Football Focus
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Jody Smith
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 Dave Richard
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NFL.com
 
ECR
# 17
# 18
Best
# 9
# 10
Worst
# 57
# 32
Russell Clay
Dynasty League Football
26
10
Sigmund Bloom
FootballGuys
24
11
Ryan Fowler
Fox Sports
23
11
Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
17
11
Eddie Cooley
Sundays Are For Football
18
12
Zach Wilkens
RotoBaller
18
12
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
13
12
Bill Enright
FFChamps
24
12
Chris Heil
Sportable
25
14
Joel Beall
Fox Sports
17
13
John Halpin
Fox Sports
22
13
Jason Longfellow
Razzball
25
13
Terrance Bridgett
ProjectRoto
23
16
Cory Bonini
USA Today
23
13
Staff Composite
Fox Sports
20
14
Neil Parker
Fantasy Sports LR
18
14
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
24
14
Davis Mattek
Sports Wunderkind
25
14
Scott Cullen
TSN
16
14
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
16
15
Eric Mack
Bleacher Report
23
15
Bob Henry
FootballGuys
16
15
David Gonos
DavidGonos.com
19
15
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
25
15
Staff Rankings
FFToolbox
25
15
Matthew Berry
ESPN
24
15
Jim McCormick
ESPN
14
15
Tony Mauriello
ProjectRoto
21
15
Jeff Paur
RTSports
20
15
Staff Composite
Sports Illustrated
21
15
Joseph Dolan
Fantasy Guru
21
15
Sean Beazley
EDSFootball
24
16
Tom Schriner
FFLockerRoom
18
16
Zach Greubel
Gridiron Experts
15
16
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
19
16
Seth Klein
Razzball
19
16
Brent Namejko
Fantasy Smack Talk
18
16
Adrian Pereira
eDraft
19
16
Cedric Hopkins
Field & Court
12
16
Des Bieler
The Washington Post
18
16
Huseyin Aksu
Fantasy Couch
22
16
Kevin Hanson
EDSFootball
13
17
Patrick Thorman
Pro Football Focus
19
17
Greg Smith
The Fake Football
16
17
Nathan Miller
Revelation Sports
19
17
Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
NFL.com
27
17
Dan Clasgens
Get Sports Info
21
17
Matthew Hill
Fantasy Team Advice
18
17
Jeff Haseley
FootballGuys
19
17
Adam Meyer
Fox Sports
18
17
Brett Talley
The Fantasy Fix
16
17
Joshua Kay
The Fantasy Fix
22
17
Marc Caviglia
Bruno Boys
18
17
Smitty
Fantasy Football Starters
19
17
Nick Vertucci
Sundays Are For Football
17
18
Nathan Jahnke
Pro Football Focus
16
18
Walton Spurlin
FantasySharks
19
18
Marcus Grant
NFL.com
17
18
Michael Pichan
Fantasy Alarm
15
18
Mike Tagliere
Tags Fantasy Football
20
18
David Dodds
FootballGuys
16
18
Staff Rankings
ESPN
21
18
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Football Girl
20
18
Dennis Esser
Coach Esser
19
18
Tom Poisal
Top Tier Football
16
18
R.J. White
Fantasy Football Cafe
13
18
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
16
18
Gene Wang
The Washington Post
31
18
Tommy Rowan
Juan Elway
17
18
Mike Clay
Pro Football Focus
16
19
Jeff Ratcliffe
Pro Football Focus
16
19
Nate Hodges
Pro Football Focus
22
19
Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
22
19
Staff Composite
Yahoo! Sports
16
19
Jody Smith
Gridiron Experts
21
19
Christopher Harris
ESPN
20
19
Austin Lee
FootballGuys
18
19

18
19
Matt De Lima
FFToolbox
16
19
Ryan Hodge
ProjectRoto
16
19
Russ Bliss
Fantasy Football Starters
16
19
Emil Kadlec
Football Diehards
16
19
Jeff Collins
Fantasy Contrarians
15
19
James Hatfield
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
16
20
Dan Yanotchko
EDSFootball
18
20
Ross Miles
Pro Football Focus
16
20
Bryan Fontaine
RotoGrinders
16
20
Jeff Brubach
The Fake Football
16
20
Adam Pfeifer
ProjectRoto
19
20
Jason Willan
Gridiron Experts
17
20
Michael Fabiano
NFL.com
19
20
Kyle Wachtel
Forensic Fantasy
15
20
Jake Ciely
RotoExperts
16
20
Maurile Tremblay
FootballGuys
17
20
Scott Whitfield
Roto Rankings
14
20
Ken Zalis
Pressbox
23
20
Antonio DArcangelis
FFToday
13
20
Staff Rankings
Fantasy Knuckleheads
16
20
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
14
20
Eric Karabell
ESPN
22
20
Nick Raducanu
ProjectRoto
16
20
Sean Koerner
STATS
19
20
Site Projections
scoutPRO
19
20
Jamey Eisenberg
CBS Sports
16
21
Brendan Donahue
EDSFootball
17
21
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
16
21
Staff Composite
NFL.com
18
21
Jason Smith
NFL.com
17
21
Sablich Brothers
The NY Times
15
21
Tozzi Brothers
Legion Report
15
21
John Paulsen
4for4.com
16
21
The FFGhost
Dynasty League Football
18
21
Paul Greco
Paul Greco Sports
18
21
Sean Morris
Bruno Boys
16
21
Ryan Boser
LeagueSafePost
13
21
Dawgmatica
Pyromaniac
20
21
Chet Gresham
The Fake Football
15
22
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
21
22
Kelly Smelser
Punch Drunk Wonderland
18
22
Doug Orth
FFToday
9
22
C.D. Carter
XN Sports
17
22
Dave Major
XN Sports
17
22
Salvatore Stefanile
XN Sports
13
22
Site Rankings
FantasyOMatic
35
22
Steve Olson
StatSims
57
22
Brad Evans
Yahoo! Sports
16
23
Ben Standig
CSN Washington
15
23
Staff Rankings
2MugsFF
20
23
Dave Richard
CBS Sports
17
24
Matt Smith
NFL.com
13
24
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
11
24
Alessandro Miglio
FootballGuys
19
24
Justin Boone
The Score
15
24
Staff Rankings
DavidGonos.com
19
24
Mike Harmon
Swollen Dome
20
24
Staff
Roto Analysis
20
24
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
44
24
Matt Waldman
FootballGuys
24
25
Rich Hribar
XN Sports
16
25
Micah James
FFMagicMan
14
26
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
20
27
Mike Rigz
Gridiron Experts
15
27
Addison Witt
Fantasy Team Advice
21
27
Brian Dezelske
Fake Pigskin
23
27
Ryan Rufe
RotoBaller
18
27
Mike Krueger
FFToday
11
27
Ryan Noonan
The Fantasy Fix
17
27
Staff Rankings
RosterWatch
13
28
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
20
31
Adam Rank
NFL.com
13
32
Ave Projection (?)
10.6
11.2
Best
14.0
16.0
Worst
7.5
8.3
Rush Yards
62.5
69.5
Rush TDs
0.2
0.4
Receptions
3.3
2.3
Rec Yards
24.2
18.9
Rec TDs
0.2
0.0
Ave Targets / Game
1.6
2.7
Total Targets
19.0
40.0
Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
It took me a while, but supporting cast and offseason conversation have me finally buying the 300 touch hype.
Buffalo has flirted with a few backs this season, but I view that as more an intention to replace Fred Jackson (long term) than I do to take opportunities from Spiller.
  
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
Am I the only one that buys into the bruising Gerhart being an effective poor man's Marshawn Lynch? Fine by me, I guess.
Spiller is a freak but due to health issues his role will have to change. That doesn't mean he's suddenly a scrub, though.
  
Tom Schriner
FFLockerRoom
Gerhart is now a Jaguar and should get his chance to officially run the show. The GM said that Toby could see between 250-300 touches this season. If that happens, he should crack the top 20 for sure. IF that happens.
I'm still a huge believer in C.J. and hopefully this is the year he pays off for his owners. But Fred Jackson is lurking and still proved to be a valuable player on the field.
  
Smitty
Fantasy Football Starters
He should get the carries, but is he built to be a full time back? I am not a big believer, not at the price.
Huge injury concerns, lots of upside outside of the top 30 overall. Is the risk built into the investment? Probably.
  
Michael Pichan
Fantasy Alarm
Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley told the media that RB Toby Gerhart could carry the ball 16-18 times a game in 2014. If Bradley sticks to his word then we can roughly project Gerhart to average around 70 yards per game, (15 carries multiplied by his career average yards per attempt of 4.7), a per game average that would have had Gerhart near the top 10 among running backs last season (11th-Lions Reggie Bush, 71.9 yds/g, 12th-49ers Frank Gore, 70.5). Add in that former Vikings running back has proven that he can also be threat in the passing game, as well. Gerhart may have the physical look of a goal line like back, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s a plodder. Gerhart, in limited action last season, showed fantasy owners he can break them off something nice as he had four runs of 20-plus yards in just 36 rushing attempts, while leading all NFL running backs (min. 30 carries) with a 123.4 elusive rating and 3.78 yards after contact per attempt proving that he has the potential to be a top-10 fantasy running back talent wise. Obviously, though, Gerhart will need a lot of things to go in his favor, including overcoming running behind a Jags offensive line that allowed their running backs to be stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage a quarter of the time last year (3rd highest overall team percentage) in order to be a top-10 fantasy running back, but it at least appears the talent and potential are there to possibly reach that type of production fantasy wise.
 
  
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Football Girl
He'll get lots of work, but his O-line sucks, and opponents will key on the run.
A high-risk, high-reward pick. I'm willing to make a substantial bet on his talent.
  
Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
Got expected workload in W1 (20 touches), but not the production (57 YFS); JAC run blocking still an issue, as is Gerhart's tweaked ankle
Unfortunately, looking at another season of F-Jax stealing goal-line and passing down work
  
James Hatfield
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
 
He didn't find the end-zone enough last year and has been battling with injuries. He has incredible upside if you are willing to gamble but make sure you have some back-up options.
  
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
Starting to warm up to Gerhart, but the though to Jacksonville playing from behind in most games is a concern. More value in PPR league format.
 
  
Sablich Brothers
The NY Times
Build and skill set suits the workhorse role he should play in the Jags run-heavy system.
Is doomed to share with Jackson forever, and will not be in goal line packages.
  
Tozzi Brothers
Legion Report
There are high expectations for Toby Gerhart around the NFL in 2014. With next to no competition behind him, Gerhart should be considered a three-down workhouse and will eat up carries in Jacksonville this season. Multiple sources have confirmed that there is a real shot at Gerhart hitting 300 carries in 2014. Gus Bradley is looking to replicate the team he helped build in Seattle – a conservative passing scheme, ferocious defense and a workhorse in the ground game. “Knowing he was going to have to pass protect, catch the ball out of the backfield and get tough yardage, he was a really good fit for us,” Bradley spoke on RB Toby Gerhart. “Gus comes from the Seattle Seahawks’ model of playing good defense, relying on the run game where Marshawn Lynch was their ‘Beast Mode’ out there. Hopefully, I’ll be the ‘Beast Mode’ down here for the Jaguars,” said Gerhart. Gerhart isn’t part of an explosive offense, but he is one of our favorite RB2 in fantasy football for this season and should be drafted with confidence. Jordan “The Todfather” Todman remains Geharts’s handcuff and should be viewed as a “change of pace” back.
Spiller admitted that there’s a big difference in the teams running game with a year of experience under their belt in the new offensive running scheme. With this being said, Bills coaches want Spiller to touch the ball 20 times this season. They said the same last year – they wanted him to run until he got sick. With a deep backfield, we don’t see this being too realistic. There are two things that limited Spiller’s production last season. The first, E.J. Manuel. Manuel struggled mightily last season in every aspect of being an NFL QB. This resulted in the Bills running the ball, a league high 546 times while defenses continued to pack it in. Secondly, Spiller was playing hurt a majority of the season while the Bills continued to throw him in between tackles. That’s not Spiller’s game. He succeeds off of screens, pitches, etc. The Bills need to establish the passing game for a now healthy Spiller to create space in order for him to be more effective.
  
Chet Gresham
The Fake Football
Gerhart is a decent running back and versatile. The Jaguars are planning on using him extensively as their main back and 300+ touches is guaranteed if he stays healthy. His upside isn't great, but with that kind of work he'll be a solid contributor.
Spiller is too good to let slip far on draft day, but he doesn't come without plenty of risk. The offense is a run first offense and Spiller is the lead back. He has the ability to take over a game and put up huge numbers, but also has the ability to tweak something and play hurt for a few weeks.
  
Staff Rankings
2MugsFF
 
Usage won't be as high as you want it to, and will likely lose out on a handful of touchdowns to Fred Jackson.
  
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
I don't think Gerhart is a talented runner and the Jags terribly overpaid for his services, but if he sees 250-300 carries as the Jaguars are projecting, he's going to finish among the Top 25 fantasy running backs. His lack of speed and playing on a bad team significantly handicap his upside.
I am becoming less of a fan of the Buffalo coaching staff. They have one of the most explosive players in the NFL, but they refuse to give him the ball in space and they seem fascinated with Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon. Spiller has the most talent of the running backs on this team, but he is misused on a weekly basis.
  
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
Toby Gerhart is a perplexing fantasy asset, on one hand he seems to be in line to be an every-down workhorse for the Jaguars, on the other hand however Gerhart is a middling talent on a team that will be trailing in many games limiting his weekly carries. Gerhart may also lose his job to a free agent addition or even rookie Storm Johnson. Gerhart is no more than an RB3 in standard leagues but is a RB2 option in PPR formats.
CJ Spiller has ton of talent but does not seem capable of being a feature back and will compete for snaps with the ageless Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown who was brought in from Philly. Spiller has more value in PPR formats as the Bills will attempt to utilize Spiller is space to play to his strengths.