Welcome to the week 15 edition of Top 2 Experts vs. The Field. Each week, I examine the consensus rankings of the 2 most accurate experts at each position and see how they compare to the remaining experts. As always, the players featured below represent the guys the top experts notably “like” or “dislike” compared to their peers.
RB
Top Experts: Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) and Sablich Brothers (The New York Times)
Marion Barber (vs. SEA)
Top 2: RB #16
The Field: RB #21
Ben Tate (vs. CAR)
Top 2: RB #23
The Field: RB #30
Steven Jackson (vs. CIN)
Top 2: RB #20
The Field: RB #16
Everyone remembers Marion Barber’s blunder last week in Denver, but he still posted 108 rushing yards, 32 receiving yards, and a score. Seattle ranks 11th in rushing defense and 4th in yards allowed per rush, but Barber is still the best option on this offense and should continue to get a heavy workload. Our top RB experts like him more than the field and consider him a solid RB2 this week.
Ben Tate collected 67 rushing yards on just 8 carries last week, and he draws a tasty matchup at home against the Panthers. Our top RB experts like him significantly more than the field this week. When Houston plays against teams ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing defense, Tate produces. Against Indianapolis, he posted 24 carries for 116 yards and a score (although Foster was out that game). Against Cleveland, he put up 12 carries for 115 yards and a score. Against Tampa Bay, he finished with 13 carries for 63 yards and a score. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar result against Carolina.
After disappointing for 3 straight weeks, Steven Jackson finally got it going again on Monday night in Seattle. However, our most accurate RB experts aren’t too excited about him this week against the Bengals. The return of Sam Bradford doesn’t hurt, but Cincinnati has been tough to run against all season long, and they just held Arian Foster to 44 rushing yards last week.
WR
Top Experts: Site Rankings (FantasyFootballNerd) and Mike Woellert (FantasyFootball.com)
Santana Moss (@ NYG)
Top 2: WR #16
The Field: WR #21
Demaryius Thomas (vs. NE)
Top 2: WR #24
The Field: WR #29
Santana Moss received 11 targets against New England. He only managed 3 completions, but that was enough for 85 yards and a TD. Ok, so the Patriots do allow the most fantasy points to WRs this season, but the Giants are a close 2nd. The Giants score a lot of points, and give up a lot of points, which is the perfect recipe for opposing WRs. Just look at the scores from their last 3 games: 24-49, 35-38, and 37-34. Grossman should be airing it out on a regular basis to keep pace with Eli, and Moss only stands to benefit. Our top WR experts place Moss 5 spots ahead of the field at 16th, which leaves him in front of Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, and Laurent Robinson.
They also have Demaryius Thomas 5 spots ahead of the pack. With 222 yards and 3 TDs in the last 2 games, Thomas appears to have eclipsed Eric Decker as Tebow’s favorite target. On paper, this is the most favorable matchup Tebow and his receivers have faced all year.
QB
Top Experts: Gregg Rosenthal (Rotoworld) and Staff Composite (SI.com)
Joe Flacco (@ SD)
Top 2: QB #13
The Field: QB #16
Joe Flacco really hasn’t had to do much over the last 2 weeks. In those 2 games, Ray Rice combined for 307 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. However, Cleveland and Indianapolis aren’t exactly putting up points this year. With the Chargers finally starting to click on offense (they scored 37 and 38 points in the last 2 weeks), Flacco could be in store for a larger role this week. Our top QB experts like him at QB #13 this week, ahead of Andy Dalton and Rex Grossman.
TE
Top Experts: Pat Fitzmaurice (ProFootballWeekly) and Walter Cherepinsky (Walter Football)
Jermaine Gresham (@ STL)
Top 2: TE #11
The Field: TE #14
Kellen Winslow (vs. DAL)
Top 2: TE #16
The Field: TE #11
The Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, but that’s not stopping the top TE experts from ranking Jermaine Gresham 3 spots ahead of the field at TE #11. Digging a little deeper, we find that the Rams have also avoided the Patriots and Chargers, and they held Jimmy Graham to just 39 yards in that huge upset victory in week 8. They may be more vulnerable to tight ends than the stats suggest.
After a mid-season surge, Kellen Winslow has been mediocre over the last few weeks. Tampa Bay will likely be throwing a lot to keep up with Dallas, but our top TE experts all but disregard Winslow this week as TE #16.
D/ST
Top Experts: Eric Mack (SI.com) and Michael Beller (SI.com)
New York Giants (vs. WAS)
Top 2: D/ST #7
The Field: D/ST #15
Green Bay Packers (@ KC)
Top 2: D/ST #9
The Field: D/ST #1
The top experts continue to rank the Giants defense far ahead of the field. You don’t expect the Giants to shut anyone out, but you do expect them to get sacks and turnovers. Since Grossman got the starting gig back in week 10, he has committed 2 or more turnovers in all 5 games.
These days, it’s hard to imagine a more favorable matchup for a defense than Kansas City. Green Bay is the lucky winner this week, but while the field consensus rankings list Green Bay 1st, our top D/ST experts have them 9th. On the one hand, Palko has been taking better care of the ball the past 2 games (no turnovers against Chicago, only 1 against the Jets), but on the other hand, he is still Tyler Palko.
K
Top Experts: Staff Composite & Dan McQuade (SI.com)
Mike Nugent (@ STL)
Top 2: K #5
The Field: K #12
Jason Hanson (@ OAK)
Top 2: K #20
The Field: K #8
Our top K experts give the green light with Mike Nugent this week. He kicked 4 field goals against a very good Texans defense last week, and the Rams have allowed 3 or more field goals to each opponent for 3 weeks straight.
The most accurate K experts aren’t quite as high on Jason Hanson. Oakland has allowed double digit fantasy points to kickers in 3 straight weeks, so it’s a bit surprising that our K experts have him at 20th, especially against a poor defense like Oakland.
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I’ll be back next week with another breakdown of the players the top experts like and dislike. In the meantime, be sure to sign up for our (free) Beat the Expert contest vs. the FantasyPros Staff. There’s a $1,000 prize pool at stake and anyone who beats our score will win an additional $5. Good luck!